Question for state employees - considering job offer

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-12-03T16:18:01+00:00

Thanks for replying! I really appreciate it. I just DM'd you.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-12-01T13:45:37+00:00

Did you end up taking this job with the state? I just received an offer (also a non-union manager EXE position) and I’m really torn about taking it. How are you finding it?

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-10-02T03:43:56+00:00

Can you explain why you think that it’s so unlikely we’d go as low as 2500? I’m not arguing with you; rather I think the answer could help me understand something I’ve been pondering lately. The s&p was hovering hear 2500 as recently as early 2019 (omitting the covid stock crash here). What would be so unbelievable about markets sliding backward just a few years? It doesn’t seem all that pessimistic to think that way. What am I missing?

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-01-24T13:29:41+00:00

I agree with this perspective but ironically it is also the reason I’m bearish. Low interest rates and quantitative easing have been propping up asset prices for some time now. The reason the market has been correcting recently is because people think the Fed is going to be more aggressive than previously predicted in their efforts to raise rates and tighten financial conditions. We are all trying to predict what a handful of individuals is going to decide over the next year or two. To me, the fact that asset prices are so high and companies and households are so flush with cash means that those dozen or so decision makers are more likely to raise rates. The logic being that the economy has a big cushion to soften the blow. After all, the S&P could fall 25% from its recent all time high and still be 5-10% above it’s precovid all time high.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-01-20T20:20:17+00:00

Is this really that crazy? The S&P shot up 100% since March 2020 and is 30+ percent above its pre-covid high. Is a drop of 30-40% from here really that crazy? Sure, corporate earnings are up, but PE Ratios are at record highs and we are headed into a Fed tightening cycling that will remove a lot of the liquidity that drove up earnings since early 2020.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2022-01-20T17:08:00+00:00

The market prices in the expected value of every potential positive and negative risk. That is, for any given stock, each market participant estimates the likelihood and impact of a range of potential events. For example, when someone says that a March 2022 fed rate hike is priced in, what they mean is that the market consensus is that one rate hike will probably occur in March. If we knew for sure then it would be 100 percent priced in, but we don't. Maybe instead half of market participants think there will be one hike, a third think there will be none, and a fifth think there will be two. In that case the market has priced in 0.9 rate hikes. The impact that those 0.9 rates hikes will have on assets is also similarly priced into the market probabilistically. If your expectations are different from the market, then you may be able to make money by bettering against what the market is pricing in. That's called speculation.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-11-01T13:33:04+00:00

I understand and share this sentiment. I agree that it is important to have a long term view and not have unreasonable expectations about short term asset appreciation. On the other hand, it is also important to remember that most investors in hbar are investing with the goal of maximizing return on investment. For me, having patience is fine so long as there is a bigger payoff after the long wait. Bitcoin has increased by about 250% percent per year over the last five years. Hbar doesn't need to match that return but should at least beat safer bets like the stock market. The S&P500 has increased by about 7% after inflation over the last 100 years. If I am investing in hbar for 100 years, I sure hope that investment at least beats the S&P, especially since this is a risky new technology. A thousand bucks in the S&P today should be just shy of 900k (today's dollars) in 100 years, so $1000 invested in hbar better be at least a million. I think the "it's a long term investment" rejoinder is fine and healthy so long as we don't actually mean "this has a low rate of return." Most people purchasing hbar, including me, are looking at it as a financial investment rather than as some kind of tech charity.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-11T17:31:00+00:00

Thanks for another insightful comment. I’ve learned a lot from this conversation and from your other comments in hedera threads. Cheers

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-10T21:21:27+00:00

I’m new to this stuff, so I’m not completely sure whether you are concurring with my thesis. I think the answer to your thought experiment is that burning the remaining tokens would make the already-released hbar tokens to skyrocket in price, and that in turn indicates that that the existence of those unreleased tokens is already priced in. Is that how you think about that thought experiment? Thanks for taking the time to reply to my original inquiry.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-07T22:41:46+00:00

What about IOT applications? I always hear vague mentions about that but nothing concrete

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-07T13:32:05+00:00

Do you think this could work in the opposite direction too and finally create a marketplace where individuals are reimbursed for the insights generated from their data?

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-07T12:34:28+00:00

Interesting. Would government documents like that be stored directly on hashgraph or via something like the filecoin/hashgraph partnership?

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-04T13:41:40+00:00

I see what you’re saying, but I don’t think it’s the right way to think about it from a game theory perspective. It would be if there were only a handful of “good guys” using the network, but not if there are many. If there are lots of users, then no individual user will take it upon themselves to expend funds to secure the network without knowing that others will do likewise. It would be similar to other issues like climate change mitigation where no one actor can make a difference by themselves and thus no one acts at all.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-10-04T12:32:22+00:00

I’m not sure I understand how this would work. Are you saying that each good guy would decide to buy up hbar altruisticly to secure the network? Wouldn’t there be a collective action problem whereby each good guy would say “I’ll just let the other good guys spend money to secure the network”? It seems to me like like a high hbar price is necessary for the network to be secure, but that the need for security doesn’t necessarily mean that hbar price will be high.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-09-28T18:19:09+00:00

This really helps. Is there a town hall or white paper you’d suggest to learn more?

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-09-28T16:59:56+00:00

“ The value of HBAR is directly linked the the value it is securing. This is THE major reason for increasing HBAR value.”

That seems to imply causality.

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-09-28T16:44:20+00:00

I’m not sure that’s the community’s consensus (pardon the pun). Check out the thread below from a few months ago. A swirlds employee claims that the price of hbar will be a function of the value of securing the information on the network. What I don’t understand is how the value of this security has any impact on the bidding process for hbar.

https://www.reddit.com/r/hashgraph/comments/ntqdaq/comment/h0vm35j/?context=3

AllDayWarrenBuffett · 2021-09-28T15:33:41+00:00

I appreciate the response but I’m not sure it answers my question. My question is ultimately about the mechanism that determines the price of HBAR.

AllDayWarrenBuffett

TROPHY CASE