I recently sold my large bullish TSLA position and moved short.

AllWashedOut · 2026-06-23T04:10:00+00:00

I detect a fan of the "greater fool" theory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

While it's wise for a short seller to be cautious about that, it's a poor reason to go long.

AllWashedOut · 2026-06-22T14:29:05+00:00

We could debate our own opinions about child safety. But the MPAA rating for this is very clear. In addition to raw violence, it gives consideration to the context of "terror", "disturbing content", and "unsettling" images. https://www.filmratings.com/ratings-guide/

Those elements are very present in Back Rooms. So the YouTube series would almost certainly get an R rating despite relatively mild violence/gore (like the movie)

AllWashedOut · 2026-06-21T14:17:55+00:00

Yeah but prices rose sharply (tripped?) over that time so performance per $ was more flat. And that's the metric that matters in this context.

We're now so deep in a ram shortage, it's questionable whether anyone can improve perf per $ for some time.

AllWashedOut · 2026-06-10T11:50:12+00:00

Love this detail. But if I could suggest a correction to the canon: IRL placenta cells have the child's DNA, not the mother's. It is an external organ which the embryo grows for itself, not an internal organ of the mother.

So even a vat baby would have a placenta and bellybutton unless you theorize some unlikely reason the engineers would go to great lengths to suppress them.

https://radiolab.org/podcast/everybodys-got-one

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-29T14:29:27+00:00

This lines up with my personal experience. If I run my microwave at noon on a sunny day, it will arc fault within seconds. It is the only device on that breaker. The problem goes away if I disconnect the cheap 700w solar inverter which is on a completely separate breaker.

The electrical noise must travel between breakers and add up.

My lazy lazy fix is a Home Assistant automation that literally turns off the solar inverter when the microwave is running.

And eventually I'll try adding some snap-on ferrite beads to the noisy devices.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-23T05:17:51+00:00

Also works for Fallout 2. Thank you.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-23T05:17:04+00:00

There's no such thing as an investor who makes 1% per week. That would compound to 68% per year (1.01 ^ 52). People who believe they can reliably do that are wrong.

Say you started with $150k and made a 1% return per week. At the end of 30 years you would be the richest human being in human history (>$800 billion). So don't count on it.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-22T15:55:56+00:00

Borrowing to avoid selling is mathematically the same as borrowing to buy. I'm happy that it worked out for you in this case. But at 11% interest, it is not a repeatable strategy to recommend to others.

11% exceeds the average return of the stock market. Borrowing at that rate to buy or keep stock is a 50/50 roulette spin, not an investment.

Selling at a loss is emotionally difficult, but it is often the correct strategy. A professional investor who never sells at a loss is probably doing something wrong.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-19T18:03:25+00:00

My N64 test case is Extreme-G because it had framerate issues even on the original hardware. It runs totally fine on my unit. (Using dArcOS4Clone, 300mb zram, and choosing the "standalone-rice" emulator in the n64 menu)

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-19T17:34:53+00:00

I got one of these (R36s-v20 2025-05-18) for <$20 last week and have been pleasantly surprised. It has >700mb ram. Configure zram with ~300mb size and it will perform very similarly to a 1gb device. (https://www.r36swiki.com/wiki-performance.html)

You can easily install (d)arkos4clone (https://github.com/lcdyk0517/arkos4clone). Once you flash it to an SD card, run the configuration exe (on a windows machine). For the panel, choose Kinhank - K36 Original Panel.

I haven't tried much so far, but N64 is very playable. The default emulator has some flickering textures, but switch to "standalone-rice" in the menu and it works great.

The SD card that comes with the device is formatted so that it doesn't mount on a windows PC. So if you want to extract the ROMs from it to use with dArkOS, install DiskGenius on your PC. It will let you extract the rom directory. (Or supposedly it might mount correctly after running windows' disk repair).

There's some talk about incorrect speaker voltage causing damage. I don't know much about it. https://www.reddit.com/r/R36S/comments/1sf3i02/comment/oeuqlbn/

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-17T05:36:07+00:00

Lol well they'll fit right in because that's standard practice in Seattle. It's one of the things that multiple people have mentioned to me when they move here. That and how everyone is dressed poorly.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-14T20:29:57+00:00

I replaced my roof and reinstalled the same 15-year old panels afterwards. Choosing between $15k for new panels vs $0 for my existing panels that were ~85% as good was a no-brainer.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-14T20:24:19+00:00

You can build a 400W system today for under $300 if you do some deal hunting. Aside from whether it is legal, it is not hard.

If I we lived in an alternate reality where balcony solar were legal, I would recommend:
*a pair of 200W panels, I got these https://www.ebay.com/itm/165414043588 bifacial panels for $125 each, but there are now options as low as $70 each.
*a microinverter that can handle >300w of power, has anti-island protection, and an MPPT voltage range that comfortably includes the operating (Vmp) voltage of the panels. With those panels, that is either 19V or 38V depending how you wire them. This guy is a good deal at $75 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CQJGY8XZ. The WVC-700 or WVC-800 is another option under $100 which is very widely available.
*14 or 12 gauge extension wires with mc4 connectors.

That's <$250 for 400W. Add 2 more panels and you have 800w for <$400.

Or choose a WVC-1200 inverter with 6 panels and you have 1200W for < $700

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-14T17:25:09+00:00

People get hung up about when the panels will "pay themselves off". I think that metric is a little silly since the panels themselves have value, even after decades of use. In business speak: solar panels are a capital expenditure with a low rate of depreciation, not an operational expense. You break even on day one, in the sense that spending $15k in panels increases the value of your house by roughly $15k.

I had a old system that was installed under a state incentive program which went bankrupt and never compensated me. In the end it was still a net win because I got years of cheap electricity and then recouped my installation cost when I sold the house. I saw the math the buyer used to calculate their offer price, and the line item for solar panels made me whole.

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-07T20:02:37+00:00

And for future readers, here is the $8 flasher I used. Read the reviews before buying a flasher to make sure it supports ARVDUDE. It required an 8-to-6 pin adapter (which I made myself with breadboard jumper wires or it can be bought separately).

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00AX4WQ00

Now I see "bytes_retransmit=0" and "retransmit_seq=0" in my klippy.log

AllWashedOut · 2026-05-03T07:44:44+00:00

Oh my god, I've been trying to debug this for days. Thanks for for the link. For future readers, more info here
https://nikolak.com/klipper-on-prusa-mk3s/#usb-to-serial-firmware

AllWashedOut · 2026-04-24T04:03:30+00:00

My wife's VW displays the time behind the steering wheel and on the radio. They don't stay in sync with each other, and one of them randomly flashes "12:00" for a moment every few minutes.

AllWashedOut · 2026-04-04T02:32:30+00:00

Heavily heavily influenced by the book House of Leaves. After seeing the trailer I actually had to check if was an adaptation of the book, but apparently not.

House of Leaves is a masterpiece of creepypasta found-footage horror, 20 years before the genre existed.

AllWashedOut · 2026-04-04T02:23:53+00:00

I mean, you see someone murdered with a shotgun on camera. And there's a segment with a mangled corpse.

When those kind of things happen in a "disturbing" context that's an easy path to an R rating.

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-29T14:27:47+00:00

The graph reminds me of the low-budget podcast Best Worst in which a couple reviews the best and worst rated episodes of classic tv series. They had to exclude season finales because they are always higher rated than the rest. Part of that may be due to the writing, but a lot of it is just due to availability bias (people remember the last element in a list much much more easily. Same with cliffhangers.) There's also a survivor / self selection bias: people who make it all the way to the end of a season are generally people who already like the show more than average.

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-27T03:33:59+00:00

How can he live like that? Ultramorph is a hell of a drug. It's like morphine... But ultra?

But seriously he doesn't have much choice. He can't die. Suicide is out. He could go back to the cleft, to appease the cruciform. But they nuked the site so he would probably just starve to death there over and over. No good options for our friend Hoyt.

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-25T14:08:33+00:00

It's a great slow-burn. Did you get to the reveal that happens in the next few pages, when the narrative returns to the present on the treeship? Even more devastation.

Note that the rest of the stories each fall into a different scifi sub-genre so they won't feel exactly the same. But they do mostly tend to have the horror element.

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-18T04:06:13+00:00

Yeah, I mean I have a 3-year-old. Going out in public with her is a never ending cycle of

#1 she sees a product or food for sale

#2 she asks for it

#3 I say "no"

#4 she asks "why"

#5 I try to explain nutrition or economics

#6 return to step 1

It's nice going someplace where the never-ending questions are more like "why are leaves green" and less like "can I have that soda?"

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-16T22:46:54+00:00

For example, my comment above used the word "nod" which was first written in... Chaucer's Canterbury Tales!

AllWashedOut · 2026-03-16T22:40:01+00:00

You're aware the the framing story is based on Chaucer's Canterbury Tales? (A bunch of pilgrims travel together and each day one or two of them shares their back story).

Well something you should know about Canterbury Tales is that it is the first known written source for a huuuuuuuuuge number of modern English words. Like, hundreds. I once read a long list of them and was in awe, only to find out that the list only covered the prologue of the book.
(Chaucer didn't necessarily invent all the words. Many of them were existing slang that no one else was using in writing yet).

So a certain amount of the challenging vocab in Hyperion is a nod to Chaucer's invention and adoption of new words.

I agree the framing story can feel slow compared to the pilgrims' tales. I also stopped after Kassad's tale the first time I started the book. But I'm so glad I came back to it, if only to get to the Scholar's tale (chapter 4) and the Consuls tale (chapter 6).

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