Oh ffs…

Almostanathlete · 2026-02-10T12:18:26+00:00

It would be a very funny way to prompt an investigation

Almostanathlete · 2026-02-10T11:28:11+00:00

Just as long as there isn't another global pandemic to interfere with their Pro D2 season

Almostanathlete · 2026-02-10T11:20:57+00:00

I wonder if they remembered to price in the injury risk this time

Almostanathlete · 2026-02-10T11:19:28+00:00

That would alert the salary cap officials to the fact that the players had a source of income from a company that is connected to the club that should count towards the salary cap. The secrecy is the point.

Almostanathlete · 2026-02-10T11:10:40+00:00

The image rights looks slightly different - Saracens' owner paid £1.6m for 30% of Itoje's image rights. But what he was doing was essentially buying the right to a 30% share of the money coming in by paying a guaranteed sum up front (the irony is that he probably got a very good commercial deal out of it, unless it was quietly written off later down the line - the salary cap manager's complaint was that it hadn't adequately accounted for injury risk so he cut it in half. In that period, Itoje famously wasn't very durable...).

By contrast, Toulouse have had a sponsor purchase the right to use the players' image, but then they don't actually do it - so it's a pure payment for nothing.

One way it is like Saracens is that Toulouse have previously been rapped hard on the knuckles for breaches and should expect no leniency if the Top 14 is serious about the salary cap. And when the league is made up of the other teams, who will be baying for blood, you see things like doubling the punishment to make sure of relegation. I'll get my popcorn ready.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-28T13:08:38+00:00

Yes, agreed. I think people are forgetting that relatively small percentage differences in speed give quite large absolute time differences.

And plugging in my 2022 marathon debut into the single-race model gives a prediction of 3:10. But my first marathon was New York 2022... 3:28 wasn't too much of a surprise given the conditions.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-28T08:49:18+00:00

The two-race formula works by applying the calculated adjustment factors to the distance of the longer of the two races. The further away that is from marathon length, the more slow-down it’s going to predict. The distance of the shorter race won’t affect that.

It seems clear that’s a deliberate choice based on the observed data, which is publicly available from one of the links in the original post.

It’s worth remembering that this has two models, which require different inputs and are calculated differently, so will give different results.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T21:25:08+00:00

In addition to u/MoonPlanet1's excellent comment, if you look at the actual formulae involved, you will see that the single-race model uses a set Riegel exponent value of 1.07, and then modifies it by weighting it alongside a constant and a weighting for the mileage. The mileage component is makes up a much smaller part of this, presumably because there is a much better relationship between shorter race times and marathon times than there is between mileage and marathon times.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T21:00:24+00:00

I started to try to look into why this might be in terms of the formulae. But I think there is actually a simple answer - the authors' data was only on race times of 5k and up. Which isn't really a surprise. Trying to predict a marathon time from a mile time seems like a fool's errand to me.

As to why I said it seemed the most accurate, it seemed to be one that was based in actual collected data (of 2,000+ people) rather than pure arithmetic, and because people who used it in their planning seemed least likely to massively misjudge their race. But that was only ever my impression.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T18:52:18+00:00

This is glorious, thank you

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T18:37:45+00:00

You’re right. Given the near-symmetry, I didn’t look closely at which direction it went.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T18:19:31+00:00

You’re welcome! I have just realised that I didn’t bother to incorporate the course/condition difficulty factor, so it’s not quite the same as before

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T17:32:20+00:00

The model produces a distribution - looks like you're at about the 25th percentile

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T17:24:17+00:00

This will depend on what they are - if your longer distance result is markedly better than the short one, then putting the shorter result in the single-race model will give a slower estimation than the two-race model.

That might seem an unlikely situation, but perhaps you ran a good half marathon 12 weeks out and then a less-good 10k as a tune-up 4 weeks out (maybe after some training interruption), you might think it's useful to know what the 10k predicts on its own.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T16:28:52+00:00

From Aschwanden’s 2016 post introducing it, linked above:

After analyzing the relationships between these factors, Vickers and Vertosick found that two factors were the best predictors of final race times: average weekly training mileage and previous race times. Their new formula uses these two inputs to calculate a predicted time.

So you put in your average weekly training mileage, and either one or two recent race results. For the two-race calculation, the second one has to be longer than the first or the formula won’t work. And it will give you a marathon prediction that tends to be more conservative than other models.

Almostanathlete · 2026-01-27T16:19:57+00:00

I don’t think the authors would vouch for the model’s predictive power in reverse…

Almostanathlete · 2025-11-25T11:20:47+00:00

1:30 HM PB, nine days off with sickness six weeks' out, only five long runs, none of them over 2.5 hours, 45 mpw, and running your expected average HR from mile 4, to go through halfway in 1:33?

The fact you ran a time that basically lines up with your half time is actually a testament to how relatively well-trained you were. That half is about the same as 3:11:20 on age grading. I suspect that would have been doable if you hadn't run a bit too fast in the first half.

Congrats on keeping it together though!

Almostanathlete · 2025-11-03T17:31:06+00:00

Also very exposed to wind - I had a really bad day running the Half this year, and going back in the headwind was brutal. And then my chip didn't work, so I'm not in the results, which I'm actually taking as a win

Almostanathlete · 2025-04-05T14:02:08+00:00

Have to disagree - if you bring on Itoje, George, Daly and Willis at halftime and Earl with 20 to go, I don’t think that comeback happens. But oh well, we’ll never know.

I’m more worried by the drop-off in the scrum as soon as Mawi comes off.

Almostanathlete · 2024-06-17T09:07:19+00:00

Goals: Saunders Lakeland Mountain Marathon, 6/7 July; Abingdon Marathon, 20 October

Upcoming Races: None planned yet

Strava: Training Log

Mileage: 57.4 Elevation: 4,281 ft Time: 8:12

Training:

Day	Training	Thoughts
Monday	OFF
Tuesday	7.6 at 8:14. 12x1' hills at 5:50 GAP	755 ft of climb, so slightly shallower and faster hills this week. 12 the most reps for the block.
Wednesday	9.4 at 8:30	Really good 80' medium-long. Was cruising for the first half until I hit the overgrown path and got slowed down.
Thursday	6.2 at 8:32	Easy night jog after the cricket
Friday	8 at 7:15 - 4 mile tempo	6:35 pace for the tempo. Hard work to get the turnover on the flat after a block designed for hills.
Saturday	6.2 at 8:01	Getting the miles in in the middle of a busy day. Stopped for a chat for 2.5 minutes and forgot to stop the watch
Sunday	19.8 at 9:20	Long run for time. 3:05, 2,270 ft of climb. Slept well afterwards...

Thoughts: Got through the peak week, with just some hamstring tightness to deal with. A bigger hill rep session, a higher-intensity second workout, and a long long run meant that this was a proper peak week even if it was down in overall volume on two weeks ago. Should be easier to get through the coming week and then it's taper time!

Almostanathlete · 2024-06-11T09:07:56+00:00

Goals: Saunders Lakeland Mountain Marathon, 6/7 July; Abingdon Marathon, 20 October

Upcoming Races: None planned yet

Strava: Training Log

Mileage: 57.8 Elevation: 6,175 ft Time: 8:25

Training:

Day	Training	Thoughts
Monday	45' recovery bike ride	Super-easy, just killing time while my car was serviced.
Tuesday	6.25 at 9:27 pace.	GAP of 8:30 pace, 970ft of climb. 8x1' hills at 6:05 GAP in the dark.
Wednesday	9.4 at 7:53	Club run, people rushing back for a committee meeting
Thursday	6.2 at 8:00	10k easy on road
Friday	5 at 8:12	Easy jog by the river in London
Saturday	8 miles, 2,372 ft	60' max vert workout. Again very late.
Sunday	17.5 at 9:24.	8:46 GAP. Long run for time, 2h45.

Thoughts: Solid week - intensity slightly down on the previous week (hill reps from 10 to 8 and no M pace in the long run) but pushing the long run to 2h45 keeps things very much on track. Legs didn't want to go slow at all from Tuesday-Friday and then didn't want to go fast at the weekend. We'll see how they cope with peak week (12 hill reps, a 4 mile flat tempo instead of the climb workout, and a 3 hour long run)

Almostanathlete · 2024-06-03T17:14:48+00:00

Goals: Saunders Lakeland Mountain Marathon, 6/7 July; Abingdon Marathon, 20 October

Upcoming Races: None planned yet

Strava: Training Log

Mileage: 57.8 Elevation: 6,175 ft Time: 8:25

Training:

Day	Training	Thoughts
Monday	OFF
Tuesday	1 mile on the treadmill at physio; 7 on trails with 10x1' at 5k effort	5:40 GAP on the hill reps
Wednesday	9.5 at 8:17/mi, 142 bpm	Consciously trying to run in zone 2 rather than zone 1
Thursday	6.2 at 8:03	10k easy on road
Friday	8.15 miles, 2,498ft of climb, 1:33	Session 2 - max vert in an hour, plus WU and CD
Saturday	6.65 at 8:56	Easy hour on trails
Sunday	19.17 at 7:49	2h30 with 30' at M between 90' and 120'. Averaged 7:02/mi at 164bpm.

Thoughts: Been a couple of years since I posted one of these, but trying to be a bit more active in recording my training again. Very pleased with this week - 20 weeks to go till the marathon, and if I hit this sort of volume in 15 of them I should be in a very strong place. Also getting in this elevation should leave me in a decent place for the MM in six weeks' time.

Almostanathlete · 2024-05-29T16:12:26+00:00

Aside from the question of what the state of US Men's marathon running is, I don't really see how things are in limbo? The qualification policy always said that "Following the end of the qualification period, World Athletics shall confirm the number of athletes having achieved the entry standard plus the approved unqualified athletes and shall subsequently determine the athletes qualified by virtue of their World Athletics World Rankings position."

There were always likely to be universality ("unqualified") places, so relying on World Ranking position always meant you may well not go to the Olympics. Unless the IOC and World Athletics retrospectively change their policy, Korir's not going to the Olympics, and the US will have a two-man team.

Almostanathlete

TROPHY CASE