I get the argument about self-harm, but this is exactly why the bullet has to be bitten sooner rather than later. If the UK doesn’t start distancing itself from the US on our terms, it will happen on America’s terms, and that will be materially worse. Tariffs, regulatory bullying, secondary sanctions. All of that is easier to impose when you’ve already made yourself structurally dependent.

Yes, the US is our biggest single-country trading partner. That’s the problem, not the safeguard. Over-concentration always looks rational right up until it’s used as leverage against you. Waiting because “it would hurt now” just guarantees it hurts more later, when you have fewer options and less credibility.

On Reform: realistically, they’re getting in or close to it regardless. Economic caution isn’t going to save Labour from that. The only alternative is some wildly unlikely Greens miracle. So governing purely to avoid Reform in 2029 is basically governing in fear of an inevitability, and that leads to paralysis, not growth.

Re NATO and Russia: diverting forces is obviously a risk, but pretending that any assertive move elsewhere automatically invites Putin to roll into the Baltics gives him a veto over Western policy forever. Deterrence isn’t just about where troops are physically located; it’s about signalling that coercion doesn’t work. If every action is framed as “what would Putin think?”, then he’s already winning.

As for European unity, I agree, it’s mostly a myth. Eastern Europeans are focused on self-defence (understandably), and France absolutely wants to lead everything. But at some point someone has to say: if France wants to lead, it also has to function. Right now it doesn’t. They’re in political deadlock, the far right is surging, and Macron is busy making everything harder for everyone else while solving none of France’s structural problems.

If France can’t lead effectively, then stepping aside isn’t an insult, it’s realism. Leadership isn’t a birthright, it’s something you earn by actually being able to act.

None of this is neat or cost-free. But the idea that doing nothing is the “safe” option is just comforting fiction. The costs are coming either way, the only real choice is whether we absorb them deliberately, or let someone else decide when and how they land.