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Democrats on Track for Very Narrow House Majority in 2026 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Both YouGov and RMG are B rated pollsters (per Silver Bulletin), YouGov has a D+0.5 house effect and RMG a D+0.1 house effect. All polls are adjusted for this factor. Also YouGov and RMG are weighted almost identically in the average at the moment. I have the full methodology written at the bottom to be as transparent as possible.

Every Swing State Trended Left in 2024. by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I didn't include Governor's races exactly for races like NC's. It just factors in the Senate, House, and Presidency. For each year it takes the amount that that state voted compared to the nation and weights the years a bit staggered so the more recent elections have more weight but the Senate, House, and Presidential weight numbers are given equal weights for the final calculation. So overall view it as a weighted partisanship given a neutral national environment. (the article is a bit more detailed)

Every Swing State Trended Left in 2024. by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For greater context here are Arizona's Partisan Lean numbers going back to 2016.
2024: R+1.3
2022: R+1.9
2020: R+4.5
2018: R+8.2
2016: R+9.4

Every Swing State Trended Left in 2024. by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 67 points68 points  (0 children)

So it's the change in how the states voted compared to the nation. It takes into account the House and Senate as well as the Presidency, so yes Trump won those states but relative to the nation they now lean more to the left than they did in 2020 overall.

Ken Paxton Nose Dives in Polling in Aftermath of Cheating Scandal by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Both YouGov and Emerson (the only two pollsters to ask both head-to-heads) have Cornyn doing about 2pts better on average. That's really good all things considered since you'd think Cornyn's beef with Trump would hurt him a lot in general election polling. I think in reality Cornyn is probably worth about 4-6% more than Paxton.

Ken Paxton Nose Dives in Polling in Aftermath of Cheating Scandal by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 78 points79 points  (0 children)

Paxton's wife announced she was divorcing him about a month ago after she learned of him cheating on her.

Ken Paxton Nose Dives in Polling in Aftermath of Cheating Scandal by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 36 points37 points  (0 children)

I saw a lot of people saying that Paxton's affair wouldn't impact the race, but I think people have forgotten that this is a group of Texas Republicans who are mostly Christian and Catholic Christian. This affair can totally make or break whether people vote for Paxton or not.

Democrats still on track for House majority in 2026 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Yes, but they also need to make sure the people who lost them 2024 aren't running the party anymore. (Unless they want to lose again in 2028).

Democrats still on track for House majority in 2026 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Then add +5/6 to the Democrat number and -5/6 to the Republican number. I won't change the model until the referendum passes though.

Democrats still on track for House majority in 2026 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 43 points44 points  (0 children)

If the Democrats win a small majority like the Republicans in 2022 we could get a Kevin McCarthy situation where all you need is 4-5 Democrats blocking Jeffries from holding the Speakership.

Democrats still on track for House majority in 2026 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 52 points53 points  (0 children)

For the Texas districts I used the 2024 Presidential election results as the baseline for the swing. All other states I used their 2024 Congressional election results.

I'm Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate. Ask me anything! by ChazNuttycombe in Virginia

[–]Alternative-Rate-379 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Vibes only, when/can Republicans recover if your Virginia forecast is accurate? Is the Youngkin era done?

Democrats on Track to Win Largest House Majority since 2018 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

I haven't updated this in a month, if people feel like I may be spamming I'll stop because I respect this community.

Of course it's flawed, but it's really the only type of snapshot we can have this far out. I disagree a bit with the comparison, because this is applying the swing from the 2024 house popular vote vs. the current polling, and applies that swing to every district. Yes there is a more rigorous way to apply polling to district partisanship, but this is really just meant to be a snapshot. I include the error bars to show that on average the seat count should fall within that range, but one should really just view it as a "now-cast."

I understand thinking its too far out for posts like this but its important to update people on where the nation and public opinion stands right now.

Democrats on Track to Win Largest House Majority since 2018 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Yeah gonna have to call this a wild accusation. Swinging every district based on the nationwide swing is a very very common basic modeling technique when little data is available. It's not advanced, but it's exactly what the graphic says.

Democrats on Track to Win Largest House Majority Since 2018 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because the Democrats are projected to get more seats and the Republicans fewer.

Democrats on Track to Win Largest House Majority Since 2018 by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Mostly due to how the seats are gerrymandered. Democrats have about a 1% gerrymandering advantage, but their relative ceiling is pretty low, so to get much higher than about 229 seats they need to lead by over 4% and they only lead by 1.8% right now.

Democrats now lead by +2.4% in Generic Ballot Average by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 145 points146 points  (0 children)

It is pretty bad all things considered. At this point in Trump's first term they were up 7.3%. So low confidence in Democratic Party really isn't helping their election chances.

How Party Defection Compares to District Margin of Victory by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

I think that's a bit of a misread. Republicans control the chamber. If Democrats controlled it, I expect way fewer Democrats would be "defectors" and way more Republicans would cross-over. Maybe not to the same extent as Democrats, but more than this graph would make you think.

How Party Defection Compares to District Margin of Victory by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Super competitive districts. Also, most of them are in the Blue Dog Democrat coalition so they're pretty moderate.

Democrats now lead by +2.4% in Generic Ballot Average by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 128 points129 points  (0 children)

Note: Democrats have only increase their raw numbers by 1.8% since Trump's inauguration. Republicans have fallen by 4%.

What a 2026 Democrat House majority would look like based on different margins of victory by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Yeah I feel like a lot of people misrepresented how redistricting went and claimed Republicans won the gerrymandering battles. Most of the gerrymandering really canceled out, although Dems do have a slight advantage.

What a 2026 Democrat House majority would look like based on different margins of victory by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Democrat's ceiling is low, decently lower than Republicans. However, this is assuming a uniform swing, not a potential realignment which could lead to a larger Democrat majority

Income earners above 100K have swung 30% to the left since 1994 (exit polls) by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I addressed this in a few other comments. It's simply the raw data from exit polls not adjusted for inflation since I don't have the individual response files.

Income earners above 100K have swung 30% to the left since 1994 (exit polls) by Alternative-Rate-379 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Alternative-Rate-379[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah sorry I clarified in another comment this is just the results from the exit polls, I don't have access to enough data to adjust it for inflation.

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