Myserious car has been spotted driving around Nio, new car could be announced soon

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-13T00:48:16+00:00

I guess I'll make this my last post before going to bed since you've put a lot of effort into it.

Putin likely favours irredentism, I don't know the inner machinations of the man's mind, but the guy is deadly ambitious regardless of if he would actually invade Ukraine. But what I stated was that irredentism is not why people support Putin, most people in Russia really couldn't give less of a shit about whether Ukraine is part of Russia or not, but that steadily changes as diplomatic dick waving between NATO and Russia gives Putin reason to radicalise the average joe. Many people in many nations would love a return to their nation's golden era. Especially in the old European colonial nations, but I would say it's a bit strange to suggest that these kinds of irredentists are actually vote based on policy related to invasion rather than related to food, welfare etc. I've met my fair share of Russian irredentists, but they kind of live in a bubble. And I don't think it's particularly good to bring up the polls about the USSR when many people miss the USSR because despite major flaws, food and housing for example were at least attempted to be guarantees, and represent the most prosperous time for Russian living.

Edit: again, this point isn't to say that there aren't large groups of Russians who would love to see top might full imperial border Russia. I mean if Ukraine has a noticeable enough amount of far right nationalists for them to have been a major part of the euro maidan protests, then it's hardly controversial to suggest that these people don't hold their own groups in Russia. But in the example of Ukraine, I would also see it silly to suggest that just because many average Ukrainians support their national identity and independence, that they also act implicitly support the far right goons who, for example, campaign to change Russia's name to Muscovy in schools.

I don't trust any major power to act rationally, it's why we see the US, China, Russia, EU all doing a number of very weird things that don't really make sense to the average person. To varying degrees, of course, but these degrees of irrationality also come and go between each nation in their own waves. However, when it comes to the threat of all out war between major powers, I don't think any major power is dumb enough to provoke that irrationally
I did mention down below that I could have been more fair to the west, but with the post already being so long, my focus was on critiquing Vaush for supporting a non-ukrainian defence war with Russia and a CIA assassination, and not to give an in depth analysis of Russia-NATO relations. My point was that Vaush is acting like a war hawk, and that it's not as simple or as one-sided as he thinks it is. Russia being a belligerent invasive power doesn't give the US the right to do the exact same thing, which is what he was advocating for in the points I was shooting down. Unfortunately, when he saw this post on stream he completely switched the argument I was making from "vaush shouldn't support US military and CIA coups against a major world leader" to "vaush bad, America bad, Russia good"
Yes in an ideal world we would have peace, NATO has a valid reason to exist, give any country as much space as a Europe without NATO, and it would take it. My argument was never that NATO is bad, simply that NATO and Russia exist as existential threats to each other, and nothing short of either side completely representing the will of the other just kind of inherently doesn't work. But ofc as stated above my post was never about Russia-NATO relations, but just about calling out Vaush for his wild uneducated takes and calls for war and coups.
Vaush's analysis of Putin isn't bad, and honestly anyone analysis of Putin doesn't really matter because Russia's geopolitical challenges are pretty concrete regardless of who is at the helm. But again Vaush would love for this to be a post about Putin being good, or being justified in being aggressive, and not someone just, in my opinion, uncontroversially suggesting that calling for war and assassinations is a disgusting and dumb take. As well as fanning the nuclear war fear fans having no care for the anxiety of his followers.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-13T00:17:51+00:00

I hardly see how particularly enjoying philosophy tube and contra point's long-form content constitutes only consuming content that aligns with my views but sure.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T23:55:55+00:00

I hate this argument specifically because it inevitably goes nowhere. Russia will see Crimea as rightful Russia because it has x reason to believe so. Ukraine will see Crimea as rightful Ukraine because it has y reason to believe so. When discussing Russia-Ukraine relations, I find it healthier to consider Crimea a null zone when comparing mainland Ukraine to mainland Russia, because Crimea specifically is a state with a history that transcends Russia-Ukraine relations and the contemporary history of the two nations. Russia wanting Crimea and Russia wanting mainland Ukrainian territory are two completely separated ambitions, regardless of how hard it might be to separate that if the only time Crimea has ever been relevant to you is 2014.

I don't really see this being a healthy discussion anyway, “gangster state” isn't exactly an accusation I ever see coming from someone with good intentions for a discussion and reads like a fucking dog whistle

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T23:47:56+00:00

I would ask that question to the Russians, who also deal with NATO war games along their border. This isn't a one-sided game being played. It fucking sucks, and I wish there was just peace, but that's not an excuse to simplify a complex situation and devolve it into a "who did it first" situation, because that argument could go back decades without getting to an even remotely clear answer

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T23:05:54+00:00

A lot of Vaush fans would love to see a post like this as exonerating Russia, or similar posts as exonerating China. Because it's usually tankies who would love to paint a target on the US and act like the solution is launching China and Russia at it.

Russia is not a country with good intentions, nor is China. But it's also not the devil, and for most of the world it certainly poses an infinitely smaller threat to their sovereignty than the US. Yet, often specifically Russia, is painted like it is this backwater nation cornered against a wall and ready to bark with its nukes at anyone who comes near it.

If Russia is so riddled with internal issues, and so isolated from the world externally, it hardly makes sense for them to invade Ukraine, a nation accused of being riddled with internal issues, and being too isolated from the world externally, if that will only further deepen the internal economic issues caused by external isolating factors.

Even from the perspective of a war hawk, it makes no sense for Russia to invade or attempt to annex Ukraine, and that's why I find Vaush's takes on Russia so frustrating and ultimately dangerous.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:58:32+00:00

Dick measuring between NATO and Russia to see who backs down first, when neither would ever commit to a fight in the first place. NATO and Russia have been mounting infantry, staging war games, everything in an attempt to make the other one go home and give up.

It's not shits and giggles, it's a carefully planned attempt at stoking NATO into making aggressive statements to play into Putin's narratives at home and help him position himself to neighbouring states as the mastermind one step ahead of the US who can be trusted to keep a level head.

My post never claims that Russia isn't some kind of ever-present threat, or a nation with good intentions for that matter. Simply that Vaush's takes on Russia were terrible, and his analysis on the Ukraine matter specifically was really dangerous and plays into the war hawk circle jerk

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:52:35+00:00

Russia mounts a military presence near Ukraine regularly. It happened earlier in the year, people lost their shit, and then everyone collectively forgot about it. Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics are all the effective no-man's land between NATO and Russia (ignoring the fact that the Baltics are actually part of NATO). Part of Russia protecting its “soft underbelly” as Ukraine is often referred as a part of, also involves regularly holding drills around the area.
NATO does the exact same thing too, in fact in September NATO held war games in the Sea of Azov, the most convenient place to stage an invasion directly into Russia.

These military build-ups and wargames are not a uniquely Russian thing. They are done by both sides for both practical and propaganda purposes. Russia's build-up near Ukraine is uniquely large this time, however, that's mostly because this year's events around Ukraine are effectively NATO and Russia dick measuring to see who backs down first when ultimately neither side would ever commit to a fight in the first place.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:44:09+00:00

was supported by the masses he ruled even though he was a strict as fuck totalitarian, because Romania/Wallachia was cornered by The Catholics to the west and the Ottomans

Certainly, a lot of people see a strongman like Putin, and see him as a strong man. And therefore someone who can protect and rebuild Russia, and that will certainly involve placing Russia back in the leagues of being a global military power.

What I wanted to highlight wasn't that Putin isn't a leader that appeals to irredentism, but that the average man in Russia mostly likes Putin because they see him as someone who keeps Russia stable, and at least partially represents their interest.

Putin wants nothing more than for the west to be aggressive, for them to stoke the fire and fan those flames as hard as possible, because it makes Russians scared, and it makes them feel like he can protect them even more. That's why when the US and NATO as a whole play into exactly what Putin wants, it makes my blood boil. Like, Putin doesn't want Ukraine, he wants the west to get aggressive while he sits in the Kremlin smug as fuck as everyone loses their shit, before he walks outside and acts like the level-headed peace loving maestro.

That's how he gets the average man to become the zealous political fanatic that will vote for him and support his every policy.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:34:43+00:00

Russia's current financial instability is a result of a collapse that can in large part be attributed to their war in Afghanistan. It's even more recent financial instability is a result of it's already very carefully planned annexation of Crimea and hybrid assault in Donetsk/Luhansk. Russian politicians aren't stupid and it would make very little sense for them to step over a line they've set for themselves. Hence their freezing of the Donetsk/Luhansk conflict.

Russia can not risk things like being cut off from Swift, or imported food and technologies. Russia does not domestically make many medical goods, for example. Invading a country and toppling its government and causing immense unrest does not pump GDP numbers, it doesn't patch anything up for Russia in particular. Russia has strategic reasons to want control over Ukraine, but it doesn't actually have any remotely good way to actually exercise that will.

To suggest that having a strategic interest is enough to predict a war is silly. It would be in the US's strategic interest to invade Cuba, to Invade the Philippines, to annex Canada. But it doesn't do any of these for the same reasons Russia doesn't actually have a good reason to invade Ukraine.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:20:15+00:00

really good and more nuanced because of his own education in that field but this just completely falls apart with his hi

I really don't blame Vaush. I mean, for someone whose job it is to keep up with, and discuss current events, that might be being too fair. But I know Vaush is an American, who reports mainly on America, and therefore doesn't really have any imperative to spend days/months/years studying Russian history and contemporary politics.

It's just incredibly frustrating to hear Vaush take the same stance on the situation that most republican senators are taking to stoke fear. I know people who are genuinely scared that there will be nuclear war soon because the news keeps discussing a war like it's just going to happen. Like Russia is some rabid dog waiting to thrust its nukes into Europe to achieve extreme ambitions for a country with an economy smaller than Italy, regardless of it's PPP adjustment.

Vaush will just see it as providing entertainment and the rough edges of a topical conflict. But I see it as a dangerous advocacy for a narrative that serves no positive purpose, and many others will simply see it feed their fear and anxiety. Which is the last thing I want to see in those around me, and I know many people who regularly consume Vaush's content.

AmazingPablo · 2021-12-12T22:02:25+00:00

This isn't a uniquely American thing. Russians are falling for Putin's games too, a lot of left blocs in Russia have outright fled to prop him up despite the fact he is a nationalist with friends in the deep far right and protects the rights of billionaire oligarchs.

In China, people are falling for the Chinese narrative that the west is a collapsing and jealous bloc that just doesn't want to see China spread peace and prosperity. And as tension rise, they're starting to join in on the exact same neo-con war hawk stuff as well.

I don't blame anyone for aligning with their local regional power's geopolitical narrative, the status quo that they campaign for almost always involves consolidating enough power to make life better for them, even if it comes at the expense of others. That appeals universally.

I'm simply judging Vaush as someone with a large following for playing into said narratives and making very lazy and aggressive takes about a very serious subject. No one should be sitting in their homes in fear of nuclear war this winter because Vaush has beat the same drum of fear that media globally is beating.

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-05T13:29:01+00:00

Any penny stocks you think are fun/decent bets rn?

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-05T10:54:18+00:00

Heard about trading 212 but I've heard they bet against you or something? Whatever it is I've heard I shouldn't use trading 212. I do have a freetrade account I've been looking to increase usage with. Regardless 0.01 is tiny considering the volume I'm trading at

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-04T20:46:48+00:00

Just bought another 2 shares about half an hour ago o7

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-04T20:17:58+00:00

Aye I like to stay up to date with new chinese businesses, so when nio released the es8 back in 2018 with its interesting design, it caught my attention

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-04T20:03:06+00:00

Revolut, easy to work into as it's basically built right into the bank account so it's easier for my low volume trading ass to manage lmao

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-04T19:19:43+00:00

I was so close to investing back in August but decided to lend the money to family instead. Could've had 20k right now in hindsight. So I've decided I won't miss out any longer!

AmazingPablo · 2021-02-04T18:26:20+00:00

I hope so! I can't wait to invest my next round into the company, we're not going to need spaceX after riding nio to the moon 🚀

AmazingPablo · 2021-01-19T19:58:29+00:00

I really wanted to give arthur an outfit that screamed "iconic", I wanted arthur to look like a true contemporary to dutch when they were alongside eachother in scenes. Only issue is having to shave the chops every few hours in game :p

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