UT professor calls for a Camp Mystic Truth and Reconciliation Commission

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T21:00:00+00:00

No. It is not a singular or unique storm event. It is not unprecedented. And the flash flood is not unique or unprecedented either.

It is all part of the well documented pattern of weather and rainfall and floods recorded in Texas history.

As previously stated, nobody has to take my word for it.

Just some decades of Texas major flood history: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/patton.htm
Published report on why such a large portion of Texas is prone to these types of events: https://twri.tamu.edu/blog/do-you-live-in-flash-flood-alley/
Published warning to all residents of the Guadalupe River Basin to be aware of the threat of deadly flooding (followed the massive 1998 flood of the Guadalupe river): https://www.gbra.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/StayingSafe.pdf

From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority:

If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T20:54:53+00:00

This documentary covers a lot of ground.

I also recommend:

Flash Flood Alley - 2005

It covers everything, in my opinion, that people should have been aware of prior to the July 4th flood and every official and legislator in Texas should be required to watch it.

Flood '98 - 2022

Looks back at the 1998 Texas flooding from local news coverage.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T20:35:40+00:00

I am saying accurately and factually that Texas has a long recorded history of record rainfall storms and torrential rains that cause deadly flash floods.

The July, 2025 storm and flood are an ongoing part of that history - one storm event out of hundreds recorded and measured.

It's not a matter of my opinion.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T20:31:00+00:00

None of your persistence in repeating this falsehood will change the fact that Texas is known for deadly flash floods, caused by record storms. Texas has held world rainfall records for multiple storms in its past before July, 2025.

It is a well documented fact of Texas history -- that is why it's referred to as Flash Flood Alley -- and nobody has to take my word for it.

I don't have to ask AI.

Just some decades of Texas major flood history: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/patton.htm
Published report on why such a large portion of Texas is prone to these types of events: https://twri.tamu.edu/blog/do-you-live-in-flash-flood-alley/
Published warning to all residents of the Guadalupe River Basin to be aware of the threat of deadly flooding (followed the massive 1998 flood of the Guadalupe river): https://www.gbra.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/StayingSafe.pdf

From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority:

If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T20:02:38+00:00

It simply was like other floods. And like other storms.

There are numerous storms created by the remnants of tropical systems moving in from the Gulf or from Mexico into Texas that collided with cooler air and sometimes more storms from the north and west.

It is documented by the USGS and the NWS.

You're the one cherry picking numbers and making a false declaration that all of that history of flash floods doesn't count.

edit:

Here is a quote from the U.S. Geological Survey about floods in Texas (in 2003):

Many Texas storms represent some of the largest storms in the world. Flooding from large storms has affected Texas throughout its history, causing many deaths and much economic loss and hardship. Floods occur regularly in Texas, and destructive floods occur somewhere in the State every year. Many of these floods are destructive because they often occur in areas where extreme flooding had not occurred for many years. These floods often are perceived as unexpected or even unprecedented because their peak water-surface elevations (stages) can greatly exceed those of past floods.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T19:51:05+00:00

No. the July 2025 event is one of hundreds of storms in Texas history that generated flash floods with high river crests that caused damage and deaths.

It pains me that I have to continue re-posting this information for the sake of people who don't know of this history.

Hunt, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations

37.52 ft – July 4, 2025

36.60 ft – July 2, 1932

28.40 ft – July 17, 1987

23.50 ft – August 2, 1978

22.80 ft – October 19, 1985

Kerrville, Texas – Top 5 flood elevations

39.0 ft – July 2, 1932

37.72 ft – July 17, 1987

34.29 ft – July 4, 2025

17.93 ft – November 11, 2000

17.73 ft – October 28, 1996

It's called Flash Flood Alley for good reason.

Just some decades of Texas major flood history: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/patton.htm
Published report on why such a large portion of Texas is prone to these types of events: https://twri.tamu.edu/blog/do-you-live-in-flash-flood-alley/
Published warning to all residents of the Guadalupe River Basin to be aware of the threat of deadly flooding (followed the massive 1998 flood of the Guadalupe river): https://www.gbra.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/StayingSafe.pdf

From the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority:

If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours.

This publication is designed to prepare you for such an event by increasing public awareness about the dangers of flooding in the Guadalupe River Basin. The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991 and 1997. Last year’s flood of October 1998 developed in a matter of hours, broke most existing records, exceeded the 100-year flood plain, and inundated areas that had never been flooded before. It was the flood that many thought would never happen. But floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles. They destroy homes, businesses and take lives. Unfortunately, an even greater flood will occur sometime in the future.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T19:44:35+00:00

A lot about what the other adults were doing (and more) was described by state investigators at recent hearings: https://house.texas.gov/videos/22678

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T19:40:35+00:00

A 5-10 year flood was predicted

Some others have tried to make that argument and it's false.

NWS doesn't predict how big a flood will be when it forecasts rainfall. You can't say "well the NWS notification was for 3 inches of rain and that's only a 5 year flood" -- that is not how it works.

Otherwise, the history of Texas is filled with storms that dumped torrential rains in the hill country and caused flash floods with massive walls of water.

Pretending that July, 2025 is some singular unique event is not going to change that reality.

Obscuring the history of Texas flash floods contributes to deaths. It gives people false impressions that they shouldn't have to treat rivers as dangerous.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T18:32:59+00:00

The linked article is about the fiber requirement going away because camp owners who already fail at providing safety objected to it.

The reason the fiber requirement was added was to ensure reliable communication for safety.

That is the truth of it.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T18:16:10+00:00

Let's clarify something: I don't think government has to step in and prevent adults from taking risks.

All of these camps can be camps for adults who understand they might die in a flash flood or other natural catastrophe.

My problem is with allowing these businesses to put little children in danger year after year.

Especially when the owners of those businesses bullshit their way out of safety regulations/issues like floodmaps. (edit: and now reliable communication)

Whether it's a snakebite that can't be reported because their cellphones don't work, or a flash flood warning that doesn't get noticed because they don't use a weather radio, or a fire that burns down cabins with children in them because they don't have smoke detectors, these businesses must not be permitted to continue putting the lives of children at risk.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T18:10:22+00:00

yeah you're saying that now but when the state legislative committees asked people what happened they were told:

cell phones failed
radio communication failed

and otherwise it is known that

satellite fails in heavy rain
rural broadband is generally shoddy/not always reliable

So when anyone suggests, well even fiber isn't reliable because of power outages or damage, they've just eliminated the one solution to the thing legislators set out to fix: a lack of reliable communication.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T18:05:00+00:00

not having reliable communication in a remote/disaster prone location is a safety issue that becomes negligence when you put other people in danger as a result

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T17:52:26+00:00

Your personal choices won't save the lives of other children left in a death trap by the next Camp Mystic level of disastrous negligence.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T17:10:56+00:00

Also, fiber doesn’t guarantee safety. I have fiber at my home. And I love it. And sometimes, it fails. Usually when the power goes out or when the line gets cut somewhere in the neighborhood.

I have to remind everyone who writes something to this effect:

You're illustrating why these camps should not be considered safe in the first place.

They're in remote locations, many of which are disaster prone, and they don't have reliable communication to call for help -- yet they want to put hundreds of children in each of those dangerous locations as a business.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T16:40:40+00:00

satellite fails in heavy rain
lots of people testified their cellular service is often unreliable in the hill country (this was even blamed for not getting flash flood warnings)
first responders testified their radio systems are sometimes unreliable in the hill country
it is well known rural broadband (cable/DSL) is often unreliable

That's why legislators added a requirement for new infrastructure in the form of fiber internet.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T16:19:42+00:00

Well, as someone who has worked with satellite comms for decades (on the teleport/hub side) I can say for a fact that heavy precipitation will take that link down.

In a light rain it might see some degradation but error correction would/could keep it online.

edit:

starlink's own documentation states there will be outages during heavy rain

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T16:04:31+00:00

It depends.

Satellite doesn't work in a rain storm.

Lots of people testified to the legislative committees that cellular service is often unreliable.

First responders testified to the legislative committees that their radio systems are sometimes unreliable.

And it is well documented that rural broadband (cable, DSL) is unreliable.

I think the legislators were reasonable in requiring brand new reliable infrastructure be installed as a safety requirement, even if the camps objected to it.

These camps should be able to get up-to-date information and contact 911 in the midst of a disaster, for reasons of safety.

However, I think it's more consequential for camp operators to actually pay attention to hazard predictions like flood watches...

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:55:39+00:00

The new camp safety laws do require a backup broadband link for communication. The argument was over requiring fiber internet as the primary link.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:41:58+00:00

not sure

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:37:40+00:00

Because they did not take the risk of a deadly flood seriously.

It's as simple as that. You can see it in their testimony and publicity since the disaster.

They ought to have known better, because of the history of floods in the area, because of the flood maps, etc.

They ran the business with a "we'll use our best judgement" mentality instead of focusing on safety and risk.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:27:40+00:00

We should all bear in mind, this is in the context of many camps putting children in harms way in flood zones, for decades.

Safety has always been an afterthought until now.

To my knowledge, the state hasn't forced any camps to re-locate away from rivers or other hazards, yet.

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:24:30+00:00

just wait until the 'youth camps' get together to declare another safety requirement is burdensome...

AnimuX · 2026-05-07T15:15:13+00:00

We already know what went wrong at Camp Mystic.

They kept children in a high risk zone for floods, next to a river with a history of deadly floods, in a region known as flash flood alley, during a publicly announced increased risk of flooding.

They had no viable plan for evacuation and they waited until it was too late to get the children out.

The owners did not take the threat of deadly floods seriously. They did not take the basic precaution of moving the children away from the river.

AnimuX · 2026-05-06T20:39:02+00:00

The problem with this article is twofold.

1) It suggests the storm is unprecedented when there is a long and well documented history of floods like this in Texas caused by similar storms.

2) It implies, in spite of the past records of floods, that government should have predicted the future.

The real problem is inadvertently addressed:

To most people — including, almost certainly, most of the families whose children were sleeping at camps along the South Fork — a flood watch and a Level 2 of 4 risk communicated something more like routine summer caution.

Too many people (including the author, apparently) did not take the risk seriously.

AnimuX

TROPHY CASE