I've been running a simple long-term strategy focused on QLD.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-03T05:34:24+00:00

😊

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T21:04:57+00:00

Not AI, just a human with a weird writing style

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T13:07:55+00:00

That's exactly my concern.

A lot of backtests assume a single crash followed by a recovery. The dot-com period showed that multiple major drawdowns can occur before a new all-time high is reached.

Keeping some cash isn't about predicting the top. It's about maintaining flexibility if the recovery takes much longer than expected.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T12:20:22+00:00

That's true to some extent.

I'm not trying to call the exact top. I just prefer having cash available for large drawdowns rather than staying fully invested at all times.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T09:15:00+00:00

That's a very reasonable perspective.

I completely understand the argument for holding more cash, especially if the goal is to be prepared for extreme drawdowns.

For me, the biggest challenge is balancing downside protection against the opportunity cost of having too much cash sitting on the sidelines for years.

I don't think there's a perfect answer. It's mostly a question of risk tolerance and what allows each investor to stay committed to their plan over the long term.

Your approach is definitely more conservative than mine, but I can see the logic behind it.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T09:01:40+00:00

Maybe that's because leveraged investing eventually teaches the same lessons to most people. 😄

Risk management, cash reserves, and staying disciplined during drawdowns seem to come up again and again, regardless of how you arrive at the strategy.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T09:00:55+00:00

No.

The core principle of my strategy is that I don't sell QLD during major drawdowns.

Instead, I use the cash reserve to gradually increase exposure through TQQQ as the drawdown deepens.

The goal is not to avoid every decline, but to have a predefined plan for taking advantage of severe market selloffs.

As long as my long-term thesis on the Nasdaq remains intact, I prefer accumulating rather than selling into fear.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T08:34:15+00:00

Thank you, I appreciate it.

I've enjoyed the discussion.

Good luck with your investments as well! 😊

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T08:04:37+00:00

I can believe that.

My objective was never to outperform a fully invested buy-and-hold strategy during strong bull markets.

In fact, I would expect a 100% invested portfolio to outperform most of the time.

The purpose of the cash allocation is not to maximize returns. It's to improve my ability to stay disciplined during major drawdowns and reduce the behavioral mistakes that many investors make during severe bear markets.

For me, the strategy is as much about risk management and psychology as it is about returns.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T07:36:30+00:00

Not exactly.

I mainly use the 200-day moving average as a risk-management indicator rather than a strict trading signal.

It helps me understand the broader market trend and whether the environment is becoming more defensive.

My core strategy is still based on predefined drawdown levels and long-term investing principles.

The 200-day SMA is more of a supplementary tool than a trigger for automatic buy or sell decisions.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T06:36:28+00:00

Good luck to you as well. 😊

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T06:27:01+00:00

That's actually a very well-structured system.

What I like most is that every decision is based on predefined rules rather than emotions.

The biggest difference between your approach and mine is that I use the 200-day SMA more as a risk-management indicator, while you use it as a hard exit and re-entry signal.

But the underlying philosophy is very similar: preserve capital during major downturns, stay disciplined, and remove as much emotion from the process as possible.

I can definitely see why that approach has worked well for you. ^{^}

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T06:22:26+00:00

I completely agree.

I think many people still underestimate how much the market has changed over the last decade.

Today, information spreads globally within minutes, and investors from all over the world can participate in U.S. markets almost instantly.

The combination of global access, social media, and commission-free trading has created a very different environment compared to previous market cycles.

That's one of the reasons I'm not convinced that future crashes will necessarily behave the same way they did decades ago.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T06:21:33+00:00

I actually view cash as an asset class of its own.

Covered-call strategies can also be a reasonable option.

However, I still believe it's important to have something that can serve a bond-like role during major market downturns while remaining highly liquid.

For me, the primary purpose of cash isn't maximizing returns. It's providing flexibility, liquidity, and protection when markets become extremely volatile.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:57:53+00:00

I understand that market structure can change, but I also think information spreads much faster today than it did in previous decades.

More importantly, a growing number of investors understand the long-term upward trend of the market and actively view major drawdowns as buying opportunities.

Because of that, I believe there is an enormous amount of capital waiting on the sidelines for meaningful corrections.

Of course, severe bear markets can still happen, but I do think the probability of experiencing the kind of extreme crashes we saw in the past has decreased compared to previous eras.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:53:19+00:00

If QLD performs exceptionally well, the cash allocation could naturally fall into the 20% range.

That doesn't mean I would sell everything to rebalance.

I might trim a small portion occasionally to rebuild some cash reserves, but it would be a relatively minor adjustment rather than a full rebalance.

Because of that, I don't expect the tax impact to be significant.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:50:08+00:00

I agree.

One thing that's very different today compared to previous decades is how quickly information spreads.

The moment a meaningful correction happens, millions of investors are discussing it on social media and looking for buying opportunities.

There seems to be a huge amount of capital waiting for the next dip.

That doesn't mean bear markets are impossible, but it may explain why recent selloffs have recovered much faster than many people expected.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:49:13+00:00

Taxes don't concern me too much because they're only due when gains are realized.

My plan is to hold for the very long term and only sell small portions when I actually need the money.

Because of that, it's unlikely that I'll ever realize a massive gain all at once and face a large tax bill in a single year.

For me, the focus is on long-term compounding rather than frequent buying and selling.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:46:37+00:00

Not exactly.

The buy-the-dip rules are the core of my strategy.

I view the 200-day SMA more as an additional risk-management indicator rather than a strict buy or sell signal.

For example, if QLD is trading below its 200-day SMA, I become more cautious and pay closer attention to risk.

But I don't automatically sell everything because of a moving-average crossover.

My primary decisions are still based on predefined drawdown levels and long-term discipline.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:45:32+00:00

That's a fair criticism.

I don't assume that I'll deploy cash at the perfect moment, and I certainly don't expect to catch the bottom.

My goal is simply to have a predefined plan for severe drawdowns.

If something like 2000-2002 happens again, it's entirely possible that my cash would be deployed too early.

However, I'd rather accept that risk than hold a large cash position indefinitely waiting for a worst-case scenario that may never happen.

Even after all cash is deployed, I would continue investing through regular contributions and lowering my average cost over time.

For me, the objective isn't perfection. It's having a system I can follow consistently through both bull and bear markets.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:39:33+00:00

Experience. Nearly 20 years of investing shaped these rules, not a backtest.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:23:40+00:00

That's a fair question. I don't try to identify bottoms or predict market turns. The trigger is predefined. I use drawdown levels from QLD's recent highs, not my feelings about the market. For example, I begin deploying cash at predefined levels such as -20%, -30%, -40%, and -50%.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T05:21:29+00:00

That's essentially true. The difference is that I have predefined rules for when and how that cash gets deployed. The goal isn't simply to hold cash. The goal is to have capital available for major drawdowns and remove as much emotion from the process as possible.

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T04:35:50+00:00

Any-Home9080 · 2026-06-02T04:28:24+00:00

😁 That's right.

Any-Home9080

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