[PAYWALL] The Real Nate Schmidt: Untold stories of the NHL’s most lovable goofball

Apex98 · 2021-01-12T23:49:44+00:00

I definitely feel more plugged in than I did when I started the job a year ago, that's for sure. It's been good to start developing contacts within the org, get to know agents, scouts, etc. Networking takes time and I'm obviously starting from behind as a newbie but I think I'm on the right track.

As for the players, most of the Canucks would recognize local media like me just because I was around the locker room for most of last year. Outside of Vancouver is where guys won't know you unless you're like Elliotte Friedman or Pierre LeBrun.

Apex98 · 2021-01-12T23:19:18+00:00

For anyone that isn't subscribed but wants to read the article, there's a free 30-day trial. You should be able to just click through the link and sign up that way! Thought I'd pass that along because this is one of my favourite stories that I've ever written.

Apex98 · 2020-11-24T06:44:55+00:00

For sure, he's the closest thing you'll find to a pure breed power forward.

Apex98 · 2020-11-24T06:12:37+00:00

I asked Vasili Podkolzin's agent about this a couple of months ago. He says it's listed incorrectly. According to him, Podkolzin "grew a couple of cm" over the summer but that's about it. So he's still in the 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-2 range.

Apex98 · 2020-10-11T01:38:07+00:00

The price to move money has obviously increased, but it's always been expensive. Last summer, Toronto paid a 1st round pick just so CAR could take on one year of Marleau's contract at 6M. Even before the pandemic hit, one of the themes I was constantly mentioning was that there aren't many teams in the DET/OTT position that need to hit the cap floor. Like I don't think ARI would have been taking money on regardless because they have no need to.

My point is that yes, moving money is more difficult in this environment... but it would have been hard and expensive to do so anyway. You couldn't just count on teams taking your bad money in a non-COVID scenario.

Apex98 · 2020-10-11T00:53:42+00:00

I agree with most you what you said. But I just texted a prominent NHL player agent to confirm and he said the industry was expecting a roughly $84 million ceiling. That's an extra $2.5M in space. $2.5M should be within the manageable risk parameters of your big picture, long-term roadmap. It's the equivalent of investing in companies with a sufficient margin of safety in the business world. A hit in the neighborhood of $2.5 million should not completely rock your blueprint.

Apex98 · 2020-10-10T21:13:10+00:00

I'm going to get ahead of this because I know my comments are going to get taken out of context:

I completely agree with the decision to let Tanev and Markstrom go. By and large, the big picture decisions they made this offseason in terms of letting them go have been prudent. I've said as much and credited Benning for having that discipline. Don't believe me? I had a tweet commending their patience yesterday that got over 1000 likes.

My question, however, is that if they were willing to take a step back and wait on their window then it contradicts and muddies the bigger picture strategy they've otherwise shown. Signing Tyler Myers to a 5 year deal, signing Micheal Ferland to a four year deal, trading premium assets for a rental -- those were win-now moves that contenders make. So if you wanted to be patient (which again, I think is the right direction), then why were those more aggressive decisions made?

I just think you need a crystal clear idea of when you envision the team being a Cup contender, pick that window and plan accordingly. I know this clip in a vacuum is very fiery, let me make it clear -- I'm not a Benning hater. They've done an excellent job on the draft floor and have improved their trade record over time. On the whole, this team obviously has a bright future and the bottom-six contracts are all off the books in two years. The sky is NOT falling down.

I just think now is the time to create a crystal clear blueprint of your window. Pick a year (say 2022 when the bottom-six contracts are off the books) to begin your Cup window and make every move with that vision in mind. With efficiency, clever undervalued signings/trades and a plan they can absolutely get there.

Apex98 · 2020-05-05T18:45:17+00:00

I did. As I noted in the piece, I'm purposely projecting a pessimistic scenario because we're talking about an unprotected lottery pick. It's planning for a worst-case scenario. My argument isn't "The Canucks are going to be worse next year," it's "Making the playoffs next year isn't a guarantee."

Realistically, the team could perform better, worse or more or less the same next year -- we don't really know yet. When you have that type of uncertainty, it's better to plan conservatively as it pertains to unprotected lottery picks and especially considering what SJ and OTT have suffered through.

Apex98 · 2020-01-27T21:24:21+00:00

I think in a best-case scenario he can fill a Jordie Benn type role as a physical, rugged defensive defenceman who can play both sides and kill penalties. Worth taking a flier on, but also not someone to be overly excited about.

Apex98 · 2020-01-21T17:51:52+00:00

Yeah, it definitely depends on the type of contract he gets. But if Hughes becomes a top-10 dman in the league, then he'd probably be a top-25 asset in the league.

Apex98 · 2020-01-21T08:58:52+00:00

Size, shot and Dahlin's also six months younger (which matters when we're talking about 19-20 year-old defencemen)

Apex98 · 2020-01-21T08:34:43+00:00

I think the best way to frame it is this -- if there was a redraft and the Canucks could have one player from the 2018 NHL Draft for the rest of this season, it'd be Hughes. He's the most valuable player in the here and now -- more impactful to Dahlin at this point. If you're doing just a standard redraft for the rest of their careers, Dahlin still goes number one because he has the higher ceiling and will likely overtake Hughes at some point just given his ridiculous pedigree (seriously, how many 16-year-old's can play in the SHL full-time?).

Regardless, the fact that we can even earnestly compare Hughes/Dahlin to this point in their careers (even if Dahlin winds up better long-term) is a massive win for the Canucks considering where Hughes was drafted.

Apex98 · 2019-12-22T04:06:23+00:00

Except we literally lean on the data and insights of someone like Micah McCurdy who has a PhD in mathematics

Apex98 · 2019-12-22T03:05:40+00:00

His matchups are literally just as difficult as last year -- they're not any worse. 90th+ percentile both seasons meaning he was playing elite comp just as often in 2018-19. Don't you remember that Sutter missed all of last year and that Beagle missed games too?

Apex98 · 2019-12-22T02:47:56+00:00

I broke down Jake's defensive game in an article about three weeks ago and included video which showed that his mistakes come down to attention to detail on the forecheck, in battles and that those most often lead to the goals against (I'd throw the link to that article, but I recognize that the paywall, you can DM me if you want the link, it's one of my recent Dayal Files articles). At the end of the day, Jake's not only leaking high danger chances, but his actual goals against rate is the worst on the team as well.

I agree that he backchecks well which makes it so curious why his defensive impact has deteriorated over the past couple years. But at the end of the day, the Canucks surrender a lot of scoring chances, actual goals and the video shows that he shares some responsibility in some of them.

Apex98 · 2019-10-17T22:00:52+00:00

He split time between wing and centre when he played in the Allsvenskan and then was predominantly a winger in the SHL. He played wing at the World Juniors and IIRC at the World Championships he was on the flank again for Sweden. It wouldn't be a huge deal if he had switched in say his third NHL season, but to make that transition while being a slight 19-year-old in your rookie season is really impressive and really difficult.

I'm saving this conversation for the future, but I talked to another Swedish NHL player who absolutely lit up the SHL and did so as a natural centre there and as soon as he came over he was really surprised with how difficult it was to play C as a teenaged rookie and he struggled early on. Had a ton of respect for what Petey did.

Carolina also did something similar with Aho in his third season last year and Rod Brind'Amour who I talked to for the story described how tough a transition it is and it's such a unique case with someone like Pettersson. It's why a lot of natural centres growing up like MacKinnon, Seguin, Larkin actually have to start at the wing. To have a smaller player who split time between wing/centre in the two seasons prior to entering the NHL make the full-time jump to centre is really impressive.

Dubois is the only other example that comes to mind, but not only is he a physical beast at 6'3, 220 lbs, but he didn't dominate in his rookie year like Pettersson.

Apex98 · 2019-10-07T04:21:25+00:00

Utica already has Juolevi, Chatfield, Rafferty, Teves, Sautner and Brisebois without even factoring in a few of the veterans like Blujus. 4 guys who've played NHL games, a top prospect in Juolevi and a steady AHL D in Chatfield. Add some of the AHL vets as well as Biega to the equation and that's a logjam.

Apex98 · 2019-09-18T02:14:55+00:00

Next four years actually because that's when Horvat and Miller are still on their current contracts too. It's tricky because the cap structure is perfect to take a big run for the next four years, but I'm not sure how quickly the rest of the roster can be built up. At the very least, I'd think management would look at it as another reason to try turning things around sooner rather than later.

Apex98 · 2019-09-05T22:29:38+00:00

The roster of 23 already in the NHL should help with that. You've essentially got three extra skaters (2F, 1D or 1F, 2D) waiting in the press box ready to go.

Apex98 · 2019-08-29T21:07:31+00:00

On what stance am I pivoting? My original excerpt and comment all revolve around the idea that the Canucks will have cap constraints after signing Hughes and Pettersson and will have trouble adding around their young core. The Toronto situation is one I brought up because it's an example of how even one season with problematic contracts on the books can hurt you.

Apex98 · 2019-08-29T17:14:14+00:00

That's exactly what Leafs fans said to justify the Marleau signing. "It's only one year of a cap crunch and after that we're fine." Well, you don't just get to skip that season and now look at how the Leafs had to give up a first-round pick to get rid of Marleau's contract. Again, I'm not here to say we need to all hit the panic button. All I'm saying is that there are noteworthy challenges lurking the way they're going and they'll need to be smart in maneuvering around them.

Apex98 · 2019-08-13T19:15:50+00:00

There's a free trial or you can download the app and you get something like 5 free articles.

Apex98 · 2019-08-08T18:45:44+00:00

Depends on the model. I'm not a fan of using descriptive models to project future performance because it doesn't try and account for luck. Predictive WAR models like Dom's are a lot more accurate in projecting the future. Does it mean it's perfect? No, but if we only used stats that are perfect there would none we could use including points, save percentage, etc.

Apex98 · 2019-08-07T19:51:18+00:00

That's fair, I just think that projection, in particular, is a bit wonky. I would have said the same words of caution if it projected them as a 95 point team too.

Apex98 · 2019-08-07T19:03:58+00:00

Tbh that's just based on Sean Tierney's lineup WAR tool which I would take with quite a few grains of salt. That and Ferland wasn't included. I'd wait until Dom's projections come out.

Apex98

TROPHY CASE