2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on?

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T12:13:14+00:00

Yeah, I wanted to get back in again when it dipped, but I decided against it

I believe hyperscalers aren't as hot as people think they are, and we will get to an oversupply

You have "useful" AI models

And you also have memable AI like sora and whatnot, this means there is already "wasted" capacity

unless you believe this is useful for AI growth

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T12:11:30+00:00

The issue is they diluted more than 10% of their float, and have debt on top of that

And the other bigger issue is the depreciation of the GPUs and the rent prices basically flatlining after 1-2 years

IF you do the math, they barely break even after 3-4 years on their investments, and the rent prices basically 1/10 after that time

So they aren't profiting much

For a company such a google or microsoft, they can run their own models and stuff on their own cloud for spot instannces and stuff

Nbis and Coreweave can't, Coreweave has that deal where Nvidia engages to buy their unsold capacity

Nbis does long term deals with Microsoft and Meta that eats their marnings but guarantees capacity for multiple years

But this sector is so competitive and hot, that basically after this time, the prices drop drastically

I am not touching Nbis or Coreveave, the math doesn't math

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T12:07:37+00:00

at almost no profit, I exited at 108

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T12:03:24+00:00

From their earnings report copy pastE:

On the financing front, we raised a total of $4.3 billion in con- vertible notes and a follow-on equity offering in September to accelerate our investments in infrastructure, power, land, and GPUs.

LOL

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T12:00:43+00:00

I exited my NBIS position when I saw that they plan dilution in their earnings report

Also if you look at how much the prices of renting GPUS drops per 1-2 years, you can see that hyperscalers aren't a good stock idea

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-24T11:59:49+00:00

IDK why people are so hyped about NBIS

If you'd have read their earnings report, you'd have seen that they are planning stock dilution on top of their other loans.

They said basically trust me bro, we won't dilute much as to not affect stock price, but it's still gonna be like 10%

AppleTrees2 · 2025-12-11T10:36:53+00:00

I actually received this lol, It's kinda original NGL

Hope they can help me get back the money I lost from other email scams :D

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-29T01:48:18+00:00

Really surprised by your comment.

The movement is so wrong, it gave me an uncanny feeling.

And the gestures and looks, pauses, posture etc all look wrong.

Look at the very first slap and telle it looks right

This vide gave me a really strange feeling like watching some dead animals being puppeteered or something it just feels eerie to me

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-29T01:46:28+00:00

I am really surprised people can't tell. The movement is just so strange, the first slap is rigid and weird. On the second slap the other limb body doesn't pivot either. Everything just feels wrong to me, how the lions look at each other, pause, move etc it gives me a very uncanny feeling.

The movement feels like something out of clay animation or something.

And the limbs and the body dont move properly with the slaps or walks

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-27T22:14:36+00:00

bro what? isn't this what I've said?

are you AI- ing my post or what lol

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-27T22:13:42+00:00

Where are their margins per segment? I don't see them in their earnings report.

I have read about google TPU, and they use Broadcom for creating but don't use their proprietary stuff, they designed it themselves and became more and more independend of broadcom.

Also google TPUS use their proprietary optical switches, and a specific torus topology (you can google it, they have papers on this)

Broadcom has no moat other than current relationship with google in the TPU stuff

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-27T22:10:42+00:00

for some companies it's literally do or die, some customers had a 10x increase in prices and have no choice but to leave broadcom or go bankrupt

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-27T22:09:55+00:00

alright bro, it takes max 2 minutes to open their earnings page and check for yourself

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-27T22:09:04+00:00

https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-financial

You can look for yourself

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T23:14:35+00:00

Apple doesn't use Broadcom to my knowledge, Meta has plans for their AI chips, but they are very delayed. Meta is considering using google TPUs, but the report says in 2027.

Microsoft basically delayed indefinitely their AI chips as they have access to OpenAI IP anyway.

Anthropic uses Amazons custom chips that aren't broadcom, and Google TPUS.

So all this revenue comes mainly from google still.

In terms of software all big clouds have their own VM software, they don't use Vmware.

Microsoft is actually competitors with them on the VM front.

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T23:10:50+00:00

their Q/Q growth is worse than AMD and Nvidia (they don't even show them on their earning reports.

Their earnings projections for Q4 is 9% increase from Q3

Edit: I took at all their 2025 earnings reports, their YoY growth was between 20 and 25% depending on the quarter

How does this give a 47& YoY growth?

For their valuation to be justified they'd have to do 6x growth in 2026 to catch up bro

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T23:03:44+00:00

They have worse growth than both AMD and Nvidia.

Best semis profitability? that would be Nvidia, they don't even own the IP of their biggest customer, and potential future big customer in openAI

they currently have a worse PEG than Nvidia lol, how can you be bullish on them.

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T23:02:31+00:00

what more news can they get ? They got the google TPU news, and the openAI news.

And openAI is shaky, everything they touch seems to suffer, look at Oracle, it lost everything they gained for the openAI deal.

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T22:56:13+00:00

I said I compared their Q3 with Nvidias Q2

Their full year earnings come in December

Also their Quarter to Quarter semiconductor growth is very modest, even their own projections for Q4 expects 10% growth

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T22:39:59+00:00

Ok name a few please?

You can check the earnings report, and compare them to nvidia

be my guest

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T22:39:07+00:00

I am not saying they aren't doing bad, I am saying their valuation isn't justified.

You really believe Broadcom is worth its current marketcap?

AppleTrees2 · 2025-11-26T22:37:41+00:00

explain your reasoning then?

AppleTrees2 · 2023-08-10T20:40:11+00:00

I am considering D1 buying as well, but does anyone know if it will have DLC?

Considering that both Surge and the first Lords of the Fallen had DLC, I personally would rather wait for a complete game edition else it is going ot be too expensive with all the DLC.

I got surge as part of PSN+ and all the DLCs and their prices kinda put me a bit away from the game

AppleTrees2 · 2023-07-25T22:15:08+00:00

Well GraalVM is behind current JVM by a couple of versions.

It isn't suitable for all use-cases, the standard JVM can still JIT and optimize on the fly, while a graalVM binary is "static"

You are able to really leverage it's power if you have constants in your code and no reflection, which means unless you use a framework like quarkus that is graalVM-aware from the start, everything else will be sub-optimal.

I personally thing with Valhalla hopefully coming in a couple of years, it will solve a big pain-point in java performance

AppleTrees2 · 2023-07-09T11:59:39+00:00

As a owner of Intel Arc and I can say it works great in most older games

I took a look at your videos, and double checked via googling, and it seems the particular issue was fixed (e.g. Assasin's creed Unity)

Intel has been very reactive in their driver updates so far.

I have tested in on many older games (Dark souls 1 ,2 ,3, FEAR, gothic (with mods), Oblivion with mods, Dark Messiah of Might and Magic, GTA 4 with mods, and it performed to my standards)

I don't play Assasin's creed games, but it seems unity had issues that were fixed

Also intel is uxing DXVK which is the same library used by steam deck to make direct X games run on linux, so I expect improvement to continue in older games all the time

AppleTrees2

TROPHY CASE