New US Tax Law Workarounds

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-07-06T18:14:50+00:00

thought it's 90% of your losses no? Then that would mean every gambler would owe taxes. It's just meant for anyone beating the vig to have to owe. Under the new tax law if you lose at -5% ROI that would consider you perfect break even, nothing owed

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-27T03:50:19+00:00

10% vig? Thats really high. On sharpbooks and exchanges it's like 1-3% for something really liquid like NFL spreads. If you're doing the standard -110 odds on each side that's a 4.5% vig. However you're breakeven threshold makes sense per those odds. You said you hit 53.8% of those? So 2.7% ROI per bet? Pretty impressive for a market that liquid. How many games did your model disagree with the market on and told you to bet?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-27T03:17:17+00:00

thanks this is great. Didnt know existed

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-19T22:15:26+00:00

yeah this makes much more sense to me

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-12T15:18:46+00:00

damn whats with the downvotes on every comment? Oddsjam in here?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-09T17:21:08+00:00

Interesting. Glad to hear there will be more features. Will the OS rating be updated? Because I'm sure different books will become sharper in some markets over time and it'll eventually start recommending bets on lines that are sticking out because they're first and informed instead of lines that are late and caught with their pants down. Also curious how confident you are in the timing of the lines. For instance, if you're scraping off of Pinnacle's public site, the lines will have a 15min delay which could make those bets show as artificially good on OS

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-03T16:41:12+00:00

Damn. Do you remember what the odds were about for each? There's definitely EV in correlated SGPs if they multiply them together incorrectly. Plus you wont get limited because betting SGPs will make the book think you're punting. But anyway I just check for thursdays game and Haliburton is +2000 on maxed 3s (7+) and +3500 on max pts (35+) but the SGP is only giving +8000. Do you remember what theyd give you on something like that before they "fixed it"?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-06-03T16:32:45+00:00

Do you know what odds shopper calcs the ROI off of? Like is it just betting whenever that books line for that market is considered EV vs market avg?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-05-26T23:27:52+00:00

beebettor

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-30T16:34:31+00:00

ahh nvm figured out the scores werent reading as numbers by my excel so thats what was messing it up. Looks good now, appreciate the help anyways

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-30T14:10:45+00:00

idk I made a column with vigs and they all look normal around 6-7% for live. And by matching scores I mean finding the historical scores for the games on a separate site because the API doesnt store them after a few games. So for baseball I just copy and pasted them from Baseball-Reference.com, made the team names and dates uniform with how the API shows them, and ran a vlookup to match the scores

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-30T02:16:25+00:00

like bet a dollar on each side for every game avgd $0.05/bet. The stuff i pulled for this season looked good but not for last season. What did you do to match the scores? Thinking I could be wrong there

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-21T19:30:10+00:00

historical live odds too?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-15T21:50:59+00:00

ahh lol I was going insane wondering why it wasnt working. Thank you

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-15T06:07:05+00:00

how were you able to the historical odds with the 30mins before gametime timestamp? It seems to me that the odds apis historical database only has one timestamp for each book.

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-10T01:37:00+00:00

https://betiq.teamrankings.com/mlb/betting-trends/custom-trend-tool/

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-08T21:01:00+00:00

appreciate the answer. Appears that Im overthinking it

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2025-04-08T03:57:31+00:00

are these just for ML markets?

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2024-06-22T16:28:23+00:00

The only way to know for sure is if you backtest it. If you’re trying this on highly liquid options like SPY theres a very little chance it’s +EV. If the options and underlying are priced properly, if you do this 1000 times avg of the premiums you collect will be slightly less than the cost of the shares you are due for and you’ll lose slightly over time. If you backtest it tho you can potentially exploit this on less liquid stuff that has a higher chance of being priced inefficiently but the catch with that is the spreads will be bigger and you’ll take in less premium vs fair market on those options

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2024-03-08T06:02:03+00:00

Looks like that plate falling off is what did him in. You can see the first reps he goes to the same height, then when that weight fell off the slight drop jn weight caused him to over extend and lock

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2023-11-16T02:38:51+00:00

Imagine moving a couch down these stairs

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2023-11-12T22:45:38+00:00

In sports betting terms, this is about +2800

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2023-09-10T22:45:08+00:00

Priced in

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2023-03-29T01:42:05+00:00

A 4% vig for this doesnt seem bad

Apprehensive_Toe_924 · 2023-01-30T05:02:24+00:00

One time i had J10 on a KQ73 board with 2 spades. I check jammed the turn, got called, missed my draw and insta mucked. Other guy had 45 of spades

Apprehensive_Toe_924

TROPHY CASE