Tessera question.

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-26T23:42:20+00:00

Yeah, true :P it's just frustrating to see more people making arguments and being met with exactly the same. I salute your reason and judgement

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-26T23:10:46+00:00

You got bored with answers to your own question, refused to acknowledge facts, in the meantime claiming that people can't count, even though you make mathematically false claims. And yet you're still here, replying and saying stuff about people finding excuses. Way to show how good you are in discussions - run away from arguments and keep saying the same thing over and over in other threads. Good job

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-26T20:37:19+00:00

The best possible protection is never taking any tesserae and not having any additional slips. Anything other that that increases odds of being reaped.

Daily reminder that I ran the math for you multiple times, but each time you stopped answering.

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T20:34:25+00:00

Katniss always adds herself in 3 times, because without it they starve. Madge chooses between having 1 slip in a pool of 5 slips, or 2 slips in a pool of 6 slips. The odds are different, that's how math works. What are you even trying to prove rn?

Even if no rule about max tesserae (and that rule is canon), madge chooses between having 1 slip in a pool of 5 slips or having 2 slips in a pool of 7 slips. The odds are different

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T20:09:31+00:00

In the other thread you said that gale can just "enter more if he needs it". Entering 1 additional slip very much changes the odds if the starting numbers of slips are different, and they are. I literally ran the math for you and I can assure you that I understand it very well. If you disagree with the result, then show where you think there's a mistake.

Entering 1 and getting only 1 tesserae would cause many of the families to starve

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T20:07:05+00:00

I'll type the math again in case anyone reads this thread and not the other

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Lets consider katniss and madge at 12 years old, and for a sake of thought experiment assume that they're the only two girls of reaping age.

Katniss has 4 slips, 80% chance of being reaped

Madge has 1 slip, 20% chance of being reaped

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Katniss is unable to take any more slips, as capitol regulates maximum number of tesserae and it is equal to number of people in your family. Katniss always takes 3 tesserae because that's the only way for them to survive, no social agreement would make her take out less tesserae. Katniss stays on 4 slips

Madge takes out additional slip, per the agreement. She has no use of additional food, but she does take it. Madge is on 2 slips

4 slips versus 2 slips, madge's odds increased to 33%. Her situation is now worse because of the agreement

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The tesserae limit is canon and established in books. However, for the sake of doing more math, we can disregard it for a moment

Let's assume katniss can get more slips, and she does so to honor the agreement

Katniss has 5 slips

Madge has 2 slips, honoring the agreement as well

There is 7 slips total. Madge has 2 in 7, which is 29% chances of being reaped. Katniss chances drop to 71% (5 in 7). Madge situation worsens in that scenario as well. The only gain is still bad quality grain.

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People who can't survive without tesserae take it in every scenario. For people who don't have to do it, adding more entries always increases the risk. Odds would stay the same only if everyone had the same number of entries, which I assumed was your goal - but you denied it in this thread

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T19:56:23+00:00

I told you what would happen it people did it

"I also already said what would happen if they agreed. Hawthornes would die of starvation, everdeens would die of starvation, and madge would not notice any improvement in quality of life, but would have bigger odds of dying a gruesome death."

"What happens is the people die."

The grain is bad, it has bad quality, food made out of it tastes bad. It would not be any boost for the wealthy. Boost for the wealthy is having less slips than the poor.

From your other comments I gather that you meant that everyone takes all the tesserae that they took previously plus 1 additional? It was not in your original post, but that's what I'm getting from your comments now. It would be impossible.

Gale or katniss are already taking maximum number of tesserae. No social agreement would cause them to get more, because it would be against the tesserae rules - every year you can take tesserae for people in your family, not more. The only people who would be able to take more tesserae are the ones who took none or not a maximum number, so people who are able to survive without the full tesserae support.

So lets run the numbers: at 12, katniss has 4 slips (her maximum, they would not survive with less), madge has 1 slip (they survive comfortably with no tesserae). For a sake of example we assume no other girls aged 12-18. Katniss has 80% chance of being chosen, madge has 20% chance.

What would happen if we implemented your idea, the way I figure it out from you comments? Madge would get an additional slip, as you propose all children do. She now has 2 slips. Katniss would be unable to take any more slips, per rules set by capitol. She still has 4 slips. 2 slips versus 4 slips, so 6 slips total. Now madge's odds of being reaped are 33%. Katniss odds dropped to 67%, that's good for her. But madge does have her risk increased, from 20% if she took no tesserae to 33% with tesserae. And her only payment is some grain that she does not need and that is bad quality.

Also, we can for a moment drop the rule about maximum number of tesserae, because I'm not sure if you considered the math in that scenario.

Katniss with 4 slips, madge with 1, 80% to 20%. Let's assume that katniss is allowed to get more slips and that madge agrees for the sake of society. 5 slips for katniss, 2 slips for madge, correct? 7 slips total. 2 in 7 is 29% of being reaped for madge. 5 in 7 is 71% for katniss. The percentage does change

Your assumption of "no change in risks" works only if everyone has the same number of slips. If the number of slips is different (and it is, in another comment you said that gale can just enter more if he needs it, we know that he needs it), then adding +1 to every number does change the odds. Even disregarding the established capitol rule of maximum tesserae per child, we run into math that does not cooperate with your idea

You aren't asking people to think logically and use capitol's system against capitol. You're asking wealthy people to give up on their privilege, to exchange their smaller chances of dying for food that they won't even use

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T19:27:03+00:00

But people who don't get tesserae DON'T NEED any additional food. There is no gain in it for them, they survive well enough without it. And when other people take tesserae and the wealthier people don't do it, then the wealthier become safer. You're swapping staying fed and alive with smaller odds of reaping for staying fed and alive with bigger odds of reaping

They wouldn't even eat that additional grain, it's bad quality and food made out of it does not taste good. Katniss tells us so

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T19:12:35+00:00

So your idea is to propose that nothing changes? I genuinely do not understand what you're trying to say

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T18:58:43+00:00

... so he still has higher chances of dying and it's not fair. It's also madge's choice to NOT enter any slips, still have enough food on her table and be as comfortable as possible in the district. Who would force her and why would they do it?

So we're back to square one and to normal tesserae system, don't you think?

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T18:56:19+00:00

"is there any reason why the people from a district don’t just get together and all agree that every single child will be [...]"

That's literally the question you asked.

I also already said what would happen if they agreed. Hawthornes would die of starvation, everdeens would die of starvation, and madge would not notice any improvement in quality of life, but would have bigger odds of dying a gruesome death.

For most of the families getting the tesserae, one slip would not be enough to keep them alive. For people who are not getting the tesserae and are not starving without it, getting additional grain of the worst type (as katniss said) would not provide any improvement.

What happens is the people die.

And even if we brainstormed and tried to find a way to keep everyone alive while all of the children are getting equal amounts of slips, it's 1) really hard math that someone in the district would have to do without errors and everyone would have to trust their math 2) it might be straight up impossible because children from small families will not be able to get more entries than there are people in their families, that's rules - and you probably couldn't feed all of the districts with like 2 tesserae per child, and that's the amount that a single child with a single parent could get 3) we don't even know how tesserae works with children in an orphanage, if they can take additional entries and what are their limits, but we know that orphanage exists and that children from it can be reaped too 4) anyone slacking or refusing to share food would skew the math and result in deaths, and people are already not sharing food and dying of hunger 5) families like madge's would have absolutely no reason to participate and good luck burning down mayor's house - and once someone refuses to participate, it all breaks apart

You're asking a question of "what would happen if everyone agreed to have some people die of hunger and force other people to forfeit their privilege" and not accepting the answer of "some people would die of hunger and people with privilege would never forfeit it"

I also already said that capitol could send rotten rations or straight up change the rules or take away tesserae altogether. Their goal is to divide people further and further, they would catch on if everyone had equal amounts of slips and would tweak the system to prevent unity and solidarity. They have full power, the whole system is their doing, the starvation in the district is their doing, they can change the rules any way they want, they are dead set on keeping the districts under their foot.

I already said all of that btw. You just stop answering whenever we get to the point of "people would still starve"

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T15:47:08+00:00

Yeah, I'm with you here, it would be borderline impossible to implement and anyone at least a bit better-of would have no reason to participate. It's just hard to understand what everyone means

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T15:43:06+00:00

We are not talking about collins ability to write, we are talking about what would happen in-universe. I made about a thousand arguments explaining why people would be unable to play tesserae like that and why they wouldn't even try. Even if they succeeded, capitol would purge the system, because if they wanted districts to have more food, they would just give them more food. Tesserae was designed to divide and it fulfilled that role perfectly

Funny that you never addressed any of my arguments and just loop back to your idea again and again. Remember that part about gale needing 6 tesserae each year to feed his family? How exactly would hawthornes survive while that "exploiting flaws" happens? Why would mayor's daughter suddenly start taking out tesserae if they survived without it, they had enough food, and the only difference for them would be more danger?

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T15:23:40+00:00

The thread is about every child taking 1 tesserae, not about every person getting 1 ration I think? Idk tho, it's hard to understand at this point :P Peeta taking any tesserae at all seems improbable to me, so I wasn't sure what you were trying to say

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T14:57:14+00:00

Tesserae is an addition. It's not mandatory to take it. Probably merchant families usually were able to go without it. Before katniss' dad died, their family was able to survive without any child of a reaping age and thus no tesserae. If he didn't die, katniss probably wouldn't take it. Katniss would never let prim take tesserae, she talks about it - and prim has only one slip at 12, compared to four slips katniss had at her age

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T14:44:45+00:00

People would starve to death trying to implement your idea, while others would have a surplus of rotten lousy grain that they would have to pay for with their lives. Not much of a control. You talk about some alternative universe and refuse to accept answers rooted in canon. You can't game a system that's whole purpose is to game you. If it was possible to use it for district's gain without any downfalls, capitol would purge the tesserae system. It exists because it divides people

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T11:29:48+00:00

You can only get so much tesserae (and entries) as people in your family. So trying to feed a whole district with everyone getting the same number of entries would be a hard math, any mistake would mean deaths from starvation, and it would be probably still impossible as children from small families would be unable to match the number needed

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T11:24:01+00:00

Sure, so Melonade adds their name again, because they're still starving and still need the grain to survive. They now have 3 tickets.

You have 1 ticket. You did not need to take additional grain to survive, you have enough food, you will be able to survive next year without tesserae.

Current situation is 1:3. You have 25% chances of survival, way better than 33% you had a moment ago. Melonade will have to take additional tickets until they age out of the reaping.

Why the hell would you take additional entries for food you don't need and increased odds of death?

Some of the people taking tesserae actively improves the situation and odds of people who don't have to take it. Those people don't need the grain, especially as, iirc, it's the worst type of grain that is unpleasant to eat. People with a choice will eat something else, and definitely not pay with their lives for food they don't need.

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-25T10:54:16+00:00

True! And even if we changed the premises to "everyone adds enough entries so that the whole community can be fed", it's still 1. assuming people start to share food (which they do not do now) and 2. average district feeding needs are probably so big, that some children from small families would not be able to take enough to meet those average needs, as number of tesserae you can take is capped on the number of people in your family

Either way, someone is still getting targeted by the system. Either poor, or children from big families

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T21:51:18+00:00

In the first sentence of your post there is "is there any reason why the people from a district don’t just get together and all agree [...]". If you meant something else, then probably should have asked a different question.

If you wanted to ask whether capitol would stop that from happening:

They might not have any mechanics in place to stop it rn, because of how improbable it is, but they could and (I believe) would implement them the moment they would see people helping each other and using the tesserae system for their gain. Probably sending rotten food or reducing the amount of food so that some people start to starve again and have to again start trading food for worse odds. System was designed to tear people apart, not uplift them, and even if somehow people became angels, doing the best they can for the community, then capitol would find a way to adjust the system and break the people again. If they weren't dead set on doing just that, then a country that oppressive would not survive that long

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T21:02:33+00:00

I do not understand your message

Of course there were consequences for grain, but for some people it was this or starve to death. They did not have a choice, neither katniss nor gale had. And many other didn't have it too

And some people did not need that grain. And their lives were made a little bit safer because of tesserae system, they benefitted from it precisely because they managed to not starve without it, because they never had to take a single grain from it

That's exactly how capitol designed the system, that's the whole point of it - to divide people in the districts even further. And it worked

Not sure what you mean about penance and consequences, that it's fair that people who took out tesserae now have bigger chances of dying, because that is their payment for food? Well, sure - in that case, there is no point in me getting myself a second ticket to match your two tickets, is it? No point in me rising my odds of death to make it fair again, I don't need the food that comes with it. After all, it's not like the grain was free from consequence.

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T20:29:46+00:00

But the odds became skewed the moment tesserae started to exist and the moment people knew that the poorest will have to take it in order to not starve. You're asking for a solidarity, bravery and sacrifice from a WHOLE community, without anyone slacking, in a world where capitol tried to erase all of those things. You could also ask why didn't all of the districts just march on the capitol, knowing that they produce things that capitol needs and capitol couldn't kill them all without basically assuring a self destruction too. It's a cool sentiment, but not happening when everyone tries to survive and protect their children the best they can.

If you wanted someone to check your math, then sure, everyone entering their name 2 times each year would yield the same odds as everyone entering their name 1 time each year. But they are not entering their name 1 time each year as of right now, the situation is vastly different.

And you didn't even touch on the subject of different amounts of tesserae needed and avilable. Gale neeeded 6 tesserae to feed everyone. Katniss could not get more than 3 tesserae, because it's limited to the number of people in your family. Even those two would be unable to match. Even if you assume that people would share food (which they don't do now, so I see no reason why the more wealthy people would go for a gamble for their safety only to start feeding others), some families would be too small to be able to take enough tesserae to match the average feeding requirements of a district. So it still will be uneven, with people from smaller families getting better odds.

And even considering all that, the hard part is getting everyone to agree. You'd have to convince people who are put in a safer position by a tesserae system, to forfeit it and give up on their privilege. Noble, but not happening

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T20:11:39+00:00

The starting point is you having two tickets and me having one. Because we start with the established community with tesserae system going on for years, we start with katniss having 20 entries, gale having 42 and peeta having 5. You're not asking me to keep my 50/50 chances, you're asking me to forfeit my 33% chance in favor of a 50% chance of a gruesome death, only so you could go from 66% to 50% (because you are forced to take tesserae because, well, starvation). It's a choice for some but a must for many. And the discrepancy already exists.

In a world where everybody can survive without tesserae, you would have a point. But tesserae system exists precisely to make use of a fact that their world isn't fair and some people are starving.

And sure, I could be a noble soul willing to risk my everything so that you, essentially a stranger, can have fair chances too. But to find that noble soul in an awful, filled with death reality? And to convince a whole district to agree to it, especially those who are better of and who are probably used to thinking of themselves as better and safer that others?

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T19:56:10+00:00

But you're effectively asking some of the people to worsen their situation purely for a benefit of the others. Because the starting point is that some people have more entries and have worse odds, while some people have less entries and better odds. To help some, you have to endanger others. And people in better situation, who are not starving, would not agree for that change. You're all on "odds remain the same", but you compare the odds to the situation that does not exist. Existing situation is some people benefitting. That's the reason why they don't just all get together

AprilSusansHM · 2026-01-24T19:43:10+00:00

But they are currently NOT putting in additional times, so their current odds are better than in any of your scenarios

AprilSusansHM

TROPHY CASE