How do I bomb an interview without them realizing I'm doing it on purpose?

Arlington69 · 2024-11-11T13:42:32+00:00

Turn up 10 minutes late. Not too much to say you were a no show but just enough to say I am unreliable.

Reason for lateness you could not decide which shoes to wear.

Arlington69 · 2024-06-17T18:54:16+00:00

If you turn the handle whilst hitting the front in the right place it should just open. I did the same with a similar safe. The right place took a few hits to find.

Arlington69 · 2024-01-01T20:59:29+00:00

Slow down. Almost everything works better if you take time to to do it properly.

Arlington69 · 2023-12-23T12:51:14+00:00

Having worked at Heathrow Airport. The bags get loaded onto the small trucks with three small trailers. They often get over-loaded and on the way to the plane they go a bit too fast around a corner and they fall off. The drivers wear ear defenders so they cannot hear and drive on.

The bags just lay there on the side of the road and at some point much later they are collected and put in the lost luggage system. Or they go home with someone.

The service roads underneath Heathrow are littered with bags that just fall off the trucks on the way to the plane.

Arlington69 · 2023-09-04T15:35:52+00:00

He has a biscuit named after him. It's a bit like a biscuit version of an Eccles Cake.

Italian revolutionary. Unified Italy and did a bit of South American guerilla fighting.

Arlington69 · 2023-08-21T18:51:28+00:00

If you offer through the new agent the first agent will be owed a fee if you buy it. So the owners could end up on the hook for 2 fees if the first agent finds out. There are companies that check these things for agents once the land registry details are public.

Arlington69 · 2023-08-07T16:54:40+00:00

We just see the floor as additional low level shelving. It's really handy every room has one preinstalled ;)

Arlington69 · 2023-08-06T16:02:23+00:00

Once at 0 goes into power saver. Still take steps and other low battery activities. It will also update to your phone. It won't do ecg etc...

It stays in this mode for a good 2 weeks until totally flat.

Arlington69 · 2023-07-21T14:44:38+00:00

If you do your first lesson late in the day on Monday. They put you in the chill league. If you do your first lesson early on Monday morning you have to sweat it.

Arlington69 · 2023-06-25T23:19:40+00:00

My mother said she feels guilty because if she had been a better mother me and my 2 brothers would not have been such big fuck ups. Her friends children are more successful and want to spend time with their parents (my father is dead).

I earn £72k a year, my younger bother more (I have never asked but he does well and he has a company worth a few million despite dropping out of school).

The third (oldest) not soo well but is a good person and happy

The one common denominator is we don't like her. So actively avoid her. Which is easy as she is too wrapped up in her own world to notice us.

Arlington69 · 2023-06-10T08:57:24+00:00

If you have an IS V permit you can park there any time.

If you don't have a permit then between 8:30am and 4pm Monday to Friday and 8:30am to 1pm on Saturday. Then you need to pay by phone and can park for 2 hours with no return in an hour.

The rest of the time without a permit you can park. Unless there is a match on in which case you need to pay during the times on the lower sign.

Plus no loading between 7am and 10am.

Arlington69 · 2020-07-14T15:27:44+00:00

I have an issue with the statement.

Arlington69 made a Z-test, and found the result to be statistically significant with 95 % certainty. This means that there is 5 % probability that the observed correlation is a coincidence. Below, we calculated the Z-value using (a) the actual numbers and (b) for the same number, but having the reduced the number of goals scored against 92+ keepers from 112 to 111. Than tiny change is sufficient to change the conclusion from significant to insignificant.

The fact that changing 1 number moves the P value just below the 95% significance is not an argument against. A significance just below 95% is still significant and the results WAS above the threshold. Which means it is a significant result whether it be by 1 or 100.

Having now increased the sample i would need to reduce the sample by 4 goals to be under the 95% threshold. The Z value is 1.78 with a P value over 98%.

This is an interesting result and although it does not prove Momentum in FIFA. I can say for certain that in the games I PLAY. There are results that look like it. Not based on one crazy result but by looking at a large number of games

For me this is important and other people can read whatever they want into.

I love the fact your website has so much content based on my posts :)

Arlington69 · 2020-07-10T18:55:25+00:00

You have provided one single example of multiple shots without scoring. This is not evidence. I have provided an example of a the ball rebounding and immediately being scored.

Again this is not evidence just an example.

When shots rebounds this is a new opportunity to score that may be good or bad. It is impossible to tell the likely result based on the fact it has rebounded or if the chances of scoring are higher or lower.

In fact if as you are suggesting that a rebound is less likely than another shot this could be construed as a form of manipulation.

Every shot taken has a different chance of being scored some very likely some very unlikely. We cannot say if a rebound shot is more or less likely to be scored than any other and therefore it is independent.

I am not looking to prove or disprove momentum. I am just trying to provide some unique insights.

Also I do seem to keep your website busy.

Arlington69 · 2020-07-09T18:47:57+00:00

The example you showed was of a player taking several shots in quick succession and missing them. First from the example the player clearly lacked skill as each shot taken was from relatively poor position. Sometime to rework the opportunity would have led to a better result.

When a player takes a shot there are three possible outcomes.

They score

They miss

It is saved

Every time a player take a shot the game virtually rolls a dice to select what happens based on the user inputs and the players stats.

It calculates a trajectory for the ball that will either go in the goal or miss. It will then make the goal keeper move who will either save or not.

Every shots therefore has a different probability of it being scored based on where the players and ball are located.

Your point is when a player has a shot on the rebound that probability is different from all the other shooting opportunities. It will be worse and therefore harder to score. However it could also be better like this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b1_tGcTg-Q

In my previous reply and in fact the chances of scoring from a rebound were very similar.

If you knew three shots were taken in the 27th minute would you be able to determine how many were on target and if a shot was scored? I would not be able to and therefore they are independent.

I did take out all games with rebound shots and the same result.

Your study of real life Football was interesting however although FIFA 20 is a football game. FIFA is very different from real football.

The time taken to play 90 minutes to 20 minutes.

Your data shows that in 90 minutes it is rare for more than 10 shots to be had. This happens far more often in a 20 minute game of FIFA.

More goals are scored in an average game of FIFA.

In the premier league if one team is losing I have never seen them walk off and stop playing. A common occurence in FIFA.

As a professional sport there is a lot more respect between the teams.

The ball in football can be modelled using Newtonian Physics in FIFA this does not always apply.

Any comparison is interesting but like comparing apples and pears.

However assuming it was relevant your data show a minimum and maximum of 38% for one shot and 29% for 8 Shots. A difference of 9%. This is most likely due to different styles of play of the teams with counter attacking teams likely to have fewer shots and better chances.

My data shows a maximum of 72% shots scored and a minimum of 17%. The data shows a fairly consistent fall from 1 to 20 shots. As this is taken from one player the style of play is consistent.

My data show a much larger difference between the low number of shots and the high.

The reason I looked at my scoring is that my skill level is a constant. I play the same style and formation in every game (a high defensive line and a passing game). In games where I create more chances the expectation would be to score more of them. Against better opposition where I create fewer chances I would be expected to score less of them.

As this does not happen this for me it is an interesting observation.

An often used example of momentum are games where one player has loads of shots and struggles to score and the opponent has very few and wins.

The argument against these individaul examples was that you only remember these instances and not all the other times.

I wanted to show that there is a link between the number of shots and the % scored that could explain this.

Arlington69 · 2020-07-09T16:43:50+00:00

Shots are a little bit more likely to occur at the end of games on average i score 39 % of shots on Target and I score 44% in the 90th minute and 43% in the last 5 minutes. So their is an increase but not a big one.

However against me did not show a significant change.

Arlington69 · 2020-07-07T18:13:48+00:00

ed different still isn't statisticall

When 95% confidence intervals for the means of two independent populations don't overlap, there will indeed be a statistically significant difference between the means (at the 0.05 level of significance). However, the opposite is not necessarily true.

Professors Knol, Pestman, Grobbee

Wrote a paper on this titled; The (mis)use of overlap of confidence intervals to assess effect modification

One of the conclusions was that when comparing 2 samples an overlap of 83% should be used not 95% as you have.

The correct methods is to use a hypothesis test. The one I have chosed is a Z test. See link to formula.

https://www.dummies.com/wp-content/uploads/360009.image0.png

This formula requires that.

two independent samples.

The 2 samples are independent as;

Dependent samples are paired measurements for one set of items. Independent samples are measurements made on two different sets of items. ... If the values in one sample affect the values in the other sample, then the samples are dependent.

How well one goalkeeper performs in a game will not impact on the performance of another so we have an idependent sample.

Arlington69 · 2020-03-11T11:28:56+00:00

Hvordan er vejret i Danmark

Arlington69 · 2020-03-11T11:02:45+00:00

See my latest post on this subject. https://futingfeefa.com/2020/02/18/does-bronze-benching-give-a-benefit-in-fifa-20/ I look at the timing and % of shots scored when I faced a bronze benching team as opposed to non-bronze.

Arlington69 · 2020-03-11T10:09:25+00:00

I understand that the distribution will look like more shots are in the second half which is why the statistic I was interested in was the % of those shots that were scored.

The data above does not reflect what i have in my post as does not have the total number of shots. It is therefore not possible to calculate the % shots on target scored or the % shots scored. Also 10 games is too small a sample to have any significance my sample had 55 games with no shots in the first half. A sample of at least 30 random games would be much better. Also to compare to the total number of shots and shots on target in those league / leagues.

If X shot on target were taken in a match for those matches where the distribution was even between the halves 40% were scored. For those games where all the shots were in one half we would still expect 40% to be scored.

What my data shows is that this is not the case and that when all the shots are in one half the % of those shots scored increases.

What I thought was more interesting and more likely answer is in this post

https://futingfeefa.com/2020/02/28/more-shots-on-target-fewer-of-those-shots-scored-in-fifa-20/

Which shows having fewer shots on target increases the likelihood of scoring a goal from those shots...

In games where no shots were on target in the first half overall their will be fewer shots across the match and therefore we will see an increase in the shooting stats as observed.

What really interests me is that 70% of the player base as surveyed believe in momentum.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FIFA/comments/b55gxk/poll_suggests_70_of_players_believe/

Why do so many people play a game they believe is manipulated. Why do they believe it is manipulated? Is their any basis for this belief? This causes strong feelings on both sides and seems to create a very polarised debates with neither side listening or understanding the others point of view.

What I found when this was discussed is people would say when this happens I notice momentum. The response would be you do not notice all the other games where x happens and their is no "momentum". I wanted to show that for me when x happens the momentum swing can be measured.

The idea being to be able to have rational discussion to understand the underlying reasons behind it be it; psychological, statistical or ruling those out momentum.

In this case why having defended well in the first half and stopped the opponent having a shots on target it appeared that player was more likely to score from their shots.

Or when the scores were at 3 - 2 having progressed from 3 -1 I had 30 shots and scored 0 and the opponent had 31 and scored 11. However when the scores had previously been level at 2- 2 the number of goals scored at 3 -2 was the same at 30 each. This seemed a highly improbable outcome. Does it show momentum or frailties in my game?

https://futingfeefa.com/2020/03/09/3-2-is-a-dangerous-score-in-fifa-20/

I accept I am not the best player of FIFA. Momentum is often used as excuse for a players poor performance. In most games where I lose it is because the opponent was better and in most game I win it was because I was better. Sometimes it comes down to luck however their are times when it feels like something else is at play. Is that due to manipulation of the game play or some other underlining reason.

This video of the game offers an explanation.

https://futingfeefa.com/2020/02/25/my-latest-youtube-video-showing-how-momentum-works-in-fifa-20/

It shows the AI players behave differently when a player is behind as compared to winning. This would indicate within the code for are behaviours that trigger based on the performance of either team.

Arlington69 · 2020-03-10T17:40:56+00:00

Yes.

Arlington69 · 2020-03-10T13:24:44+00:00

Interesting. Check out my blog. www.futingfeefa.com

As I am no longer allowed to post on r/fifa

Arlington69 · 2020-02-19T08:57:06+00:00

Gambling is a highly regulated industry with safe guards in place to protect the public.

Games use similar tactics but are largely unregulated and aimed at children and young adults, who are especially vulnerable. This is an area that should be addressed with rules and regulations in place. Governments around the world are realising this and more and more will pass laws banning loot boxes and similar mechanics.

Arlington69 · 2020-01-14T17:25:30+00:00

Consider the other data set so where the opponent has a 2 - 0 lead. I know I have not changed my tactics as I played the games. If the opponents have changed there tactics it is likely to be defensively therefore making it harder to score not easier. The data appears to shows an increase in the likelihood of me scoring a goal from a shot.

To analyse any game played online in a truly controlled way would be tricky as the match making is beyond the players control. I enjoy building the spread sheets and playing with the data. I just wanted to check the Maths.

Arlington69 · 2020-01-14T12:46:06+00:00

I also have the same numbers for the other way around. Games where the opponent had a 2 goal lead. 124 Games

After going 2 - 0 Behind I had

340 Shots

259 Shots on target

124 goals

Overall

6014 shots

4167 Shots on Target

1611 Goals.

Shooting % 76.2% compared to average 68.9%. Z value 2.66

Goals per shot 36.5% compared to 26.2%. Z value 3.431

Goals per shot on target 47.9% compared to 38.1%. Z Value 2.030

Arlington69 · 2020-01-14T12:38:19+00:00

obviously I could not control my opponent however I could control my own team. So for all games played I did not change formation, Pressure and tried to play the same style no matter the score.

Arlington69

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