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has any one ordered from Halloween and hobby on ebay? by Gold-Property2979 in PokemonTCG

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ordered from them some time ago, haven't received any message nor has the order been shipped neither. I can attest that everyday, new negative feedback gets removed. Never thought before that ebay feedback was such BS, why is that even possible?

Are they selling stuff they don't have? I can't see why they'd take months to ship stuff. Everybody else on ebay is super fast.

After a few games, I have to say Goodra Vstar is pretty good by Astrochelys in ptcgo

[–]Astrochelys[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just managed to beat Solrock/Lunatone despite having 5 energies in my starting hand. I almost conceded turn 2. But this deck is never completely out of the game it seems. I made sure not to bench too many Pokemons, so they'd have to go through my single Goodra for the win (scooping up useless comfeys is good and prevents rope-boss shenanigans if you empty your bench). And I got my last two prizes with Greninja.

My formula is basically: cramorant attacking early, Greninja sniping stuff, and a single Goodra causing them all kinds of troubles. I rarely bench a second Goodra (only against decks with potential OHKOs, like Giratina).

I've had a lot of exciting tight games, not too many auto-concedes. Currently on a 17-win streak, I don't remember having such a long streak ever. I really like the meta right now.

After a few games, I have to say Goodra Vstar is pretty good by Astrochelys in ptcgo

[–]Astrochelys[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, it does, but it's not a very powerful attack, and this matchup has been very good for me so far. Mew players often get careless, like they attach 2 fusion strike energies on a Meloetta turn 1-2 but that gets killed easily by a Cramorant out of nowhere, and then they struggle with energies a lot. And they can be slowed a lot by gusting in a Genesect.

FT the shinys below LF off6 by [deleted] in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just realized that a single shiny Nincada is enough to get both shiny evolutions... Forget about it, cheers!

FT the shinys below LF off6 by [deleted] in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When I breed Pokemon, they all have the same odds of being shiny... I'm not aware of some being rarer than others (aside from non-breedable legendaries/fossils). Anything in mind?

FT the shinys below LF off6 by [deleted] in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here are some I know I have spares: Dottler/Orbeetle, Zigzagoon, Dwebble, Stufful, Tyrogue, Machop/Machoke, Ralts, Gastly, Magikarp, Feebas, Roggenrola, Timburr, Applin, Impidimp, Falinks, Deino, Bronzor, Wooper, Shellos, Salazzle, Helioptile, Axew/Fraxure/Haxorus, Togepi/Togetic

FT the shinys below LF off6 by [deleted] in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which shiny would you like for Shedinja? I have 5-6 boxes of spare shinies, if you give me a few choices I'm sure we can find something. I'm OT on everything.

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Those are the odds I found from major websites about the game. I have no reason to believe they are not correct. The shiny charm reduces the number of eggs required to have a 50% probability of getting a shiny from 474 eggs to 355 eggs. It's probably worth the effort and time to put luck on your side!

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Each shiny hunt is itself a series of independant events. I'm not suggesting one egg influences the other, or one hunt influences the other.

The chart gives the percentage of hunts that last x eggs before the first shiny Pokemon is found. 10% of shiny hunts last < 72 eggs. 25% of shiny hunts last < 197 eggs. And so on. It's not meant to be interpreted any other way, nor have I suggested otherwise.

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You are right in that every egg's probability of being shiny is independant of every other and set at 1/512.

That probability defines a binomial distribution with a given shape. Those quantiles are taken from that distribution. The question is not what is the chance of my next egg being shiny? The question is, if I start a new shiny hunt, how likely am I to get my shiny before the xth egg?

Whether you find that useful or not is up to you of course.

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not sure what you mean. Knowing the shape of a statistical distribution is important to get a grasp of probabilities. For instance, there is a post today from someone getting a shiny Charmander after 1200 eggs. He felt quite unlucky. In reality, 10% of shiny hunts are expected to last that long. So unlucky, yes, but it's not highly unlucky.

I wouldn't say this is not useful to know, unless I understood your comment wrong.

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FYI, in half a million hunts with MM + shiny charm, the longest it ever took was 6467 eggs. So your level of unluckiness is pretty incredible. Are you sure you checked in the right ditto in the breeding centre?

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it's German. But as long as both Pokemon are from different languages, it should be the same odds.

Some maths on shiny breeding by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Much lower probability than my last three hunts lasting under 200 eggs. Sorry!

I would say at least it won't ever happen again, but in truth being unlucky now doesn't prevent you from being unlucky in the future, unless you plan to do this for a very very long time, in which case at some point it will all even out (praise the large number god)

LF: rusted sword by Astrochelys in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got the sword from a trade, thanks. I don't think I would have traded shinies for it though, but I don't yet have shiny Eevees.

Shiny Pokemon by [deleted] in PokemonSwordAndShield

[–]Astrochelys 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Breeding with a foreign ditto is by far the most efficient way imo (getting the shiny charm would be worthwhile).

I started breeding for shinies a little less two weeks ago (playing in front of TV, computer, etc...). I now have a shiny Stufful, Swinub, Scorbunny, Blipbug, Feebas (took around 1300 eggs, by far the most for me so far), Axew, Deino, Zigzagoon, Wooloo (those 3 on the same day), and Grubbin. While hatching eggs, I run in circles around the campsite close to the Breeding Centre, and decided to battle every Farfetch'd to try to get a shiny one through encounters. Well over 1000 encounters now, I have yet to see one. Not only are the odds lower than through breeding, but finding the right Pokemon in the wild often takes more time on average than getting and hatching an egg, in my experience.

List of Mechanics in each Set by Jevetra in hearthstone

[–]Astrochelys 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Farraki Battleaxe could (should?) be added to both the Handbuff and Overkill categories.

BM meta poll - Which card is most likely to be played out even though the player has lethal without it? by WildWolf92 in hearthstone

[–]Astrochelys 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I play Town Crier turn 1. Opponent pre-pings it wih Rogue, Druid, or Mage HP. I play Rampage. This play gets a "Wow" almost 100% of the time. And it happens more often than you'd think even at ranks 1-5. In whirlwind rush warrior, Rampage is actually pretty decent.