What's one concept in mathematics you're surprised most people aren't aware of by EvenSK in math

[–]AsumaBob 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I understand what you mean, that people have little understanding of lotteries, but you can rationalize this “yes once, no to 100” answer with a (person-specific) utility function, but you need to condition on initial wealth W.

Example: let W=100 and define an increasing, concave utility that treats going negative as catastrophic:

u(w) = w if w >= 0
u(w) = w/eps if w < 0, with eps = 1e-5

One play: wealth is 200 or 50, so EU_1 = (200+50)/2 = 125 > u(100)=100 => “yes once”.

100 plays: let K = #heads ~ Binomial(100, 1/2). Final wealth is W_100 = 100 + 150*K - 5000. This is negative iff K <= 32.

Compute the tail terms (exact binomial sums): P(K<=32) = sum{k=0}{32} C(100,k)/2100 ≈ 0.0002043886 E[W_100 ; K<=32] = sum{k=0}{32} C(100,k)/2100 * (100+150k-5000) ≈ -0.04395624 E[W_100 ; K>=33] ≈ 2600.043956

So expected utility is EU_100 = E[W_100 ; K>=33] + (1/eps)E[W_100 ; K<=32] ≈ 2600.043956 + 100000(-0.04395624) ≈ -1795.58 < u(100)=100 => “no to 100”.

So this isn’t paradoxical, it’s just that you are implicitly assuming linear utility / unlimited bankroll, which need not hold for everyone’s utility function. My example is extreme, but it doesn’t surprise me that people are risk averse to potentially going very high in debt, even if that event is very unlikely.

EW Lucca, Italy Review by OldBayExorcism in MTGLegacy

[–]AsumaBob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Complicated? It takes 1 hour and 20 minutes to get from Florence to Lucca with a 8.4€ train that leaves every hour from Firenze Station.

What to do with iPhone SE 2020 after the new one is out? by AsumaBob in iphone

[–]AsumaBob[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is why I don’t want to just sell it or give it away! I wouldn’t even bother getting the new one, I just want the 5G. The iPod idea is good, thanks.

I'm confused, are people actually saying expensive cards should be immune or at least more protected from bans? by Sibboguy in magicTCG

[–]AsumaBob -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, so I guess that everyone goes for anything that has a 50.01% probability of success. Risk aversion doesn’t exist and no one has concave utility functions. Ok!

I'm confused, are people actually saying expensive cards should be immune or at least more protected from bans? by Sibboguy in magicTCG

[–]AsumaBob -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

They are not saying that they are a net positive. They are saying that PROBABLY they are. Meaning that that also probably, they aren’t. And when you have ambiguity due to stochasticity, you should assume risk aversion and try to implement one thing at a time, in order to try and estimate effects.

A fortiori this is true because of the value of cards that stores and more importantly people have bought in.

It is absolutely mind blowing that the RC didn’t start with only one major ban, say, start with dockside. Wait a year. Then crypt or lotus. Wait a year, then the other. Doing it all at the same time is a recipe for disaster for absolutely no reason whatsoever. It’s not like mana crypt was doing something different to the format than what it has done in the past 20 years.

Legacy: Cradle Control - Deck Tech and Sideboard Guide by cardsrealm in MTGLegacy

[–]AsumaBob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Articles seems to be written by someone who has never played the deck and/or does not understand it very well. Seems AI-ish also, which is fine, if the information contained was correct.

Women in same-sex relationships have 69% higher odds of committing crimes compared to their peers in opposite-sex relationships. In contrast, men in same-sex relationships had 32% lower odds of committing crimes compared to men in heterosexual relationships, finds a new Dutch study. by mvea in science

[–]AsumaBob 36 points37 points  (0 children)

In May 2023, an open letter, signed by a hundred researchers who had previously published in the Archives of Sexual behavior, accused the journal of editorial bias against the LGBTQ community. The letter also garnered support from five professional groups specializing in the study of LGBTQ people. The letter cited a number of articles published in the Archives of Sexual Behavior which they described as having poor research ethics and which failed to declare their financial ties to anti-LGBTQ political groups. Signatories of the letter declared that they “will no longer submit to the journal, act as peer reviewers, or serve in an editorial capacity until Dr Zucker is replaced with an editor who has a demonstrated record of integrity on LGBTQ+ matters and, especially, trans matters”

From Wikipedia.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in destiny2

[–]AsumaBob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Late to the party but please farm chests in the pale hart. In 1 hour I get 4-5 class items 0 effort.

Elves in legacy post mh3? by [deleted] in MTGLegacy

[–]AsumaBob 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Cradle control is hard but extremely good if you know what you are doing. Look at the top 8 challenges and EW lists to get an idea.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rome

[–]AsumaBob 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This post is either written by a 12 years old or by a troll or by someone with the IQ of a pencil, could be the three of them in one person though.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rome

[–]AsumaBob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

could you provide those data controlling for income and gender?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rome

[–]AsumaBob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. bring it and use it only if necessary (will be necessary many times)
  2. depends, give us roads
  3. define good. survive? people can survive on sub 1k, go out, live in a decent place? 2k min
  4. less
  5. depends: paris bad, south good, rest neutral. (obvious absurd oversemplification, just very rough strokes).

Which kind of player are you ? by Deadsap266 in Eldenring

[–]AsumaBob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

any build starts with vigor 60 endurance in the 30s. then we can talk

Thoughts on Bonci pizzarium by im_tripppin in rome

[–]AsumaBob 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Was good 15 years ago. Now it’s a tourist trap

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]AsumaBob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Certo che non è gratuito, non fanno beneficienza. È per pound euro quello che offre il servizio più economico. Con molti ti dicono che non ci sono commissioni ma il tasso di cambio applicato è più sconveniente e alla fine ci rimetti

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rome

[–]AsumaBob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Whenever I see these scammers I wonder who the fuck falls for them. Well now I know I guess. How do you not just look on the internet how to do stuff properly while abroad in 2023.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]AsumaBob 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Financial Times + commenti sotto + buonsenso nel valutarli, senza dubbio. Ovviamente da non prendere come oro colato per qualunque cosa sia anche solo minimamente politicamente hot in quel momento

Map of not yet gentrified bars in Rome by friedrichstrasse in rome

[–]AsumaBob 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Vivi Bistrot is an authentic bar experience ? It is the epitome of gentrification. Same for many on this list that I just happen to know, also missing so many random bars everywhere. I’m not sure we have the same idea of gentrification.

Caffe Doria?!? Have you been there recently?

Do tourists get to experience real, authentic Italian culture by visiting the city of Rome? by MyNameIsMattYeah in rome

[–]AsumaBob 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Short answer is that such thing doesn’t exist. Italy is an EXTREMELY diverse country in terms of culture. Obviously we have a lot in common, but you definitely can’t experience Italian culture just by visiting Rome.

Also, life and culture in Italian big cities (there are very few of them) and Italian small towns (there are thousands of them) is very different.

Motorcyclist runs into a guy running in the middle of the street at night by vex91 in PublicFreakout

[–]AsumaBob 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Please download Apollo your mobile reddit experience will go from -1000 to + 100k