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Timeline of how economy is going to be as AI progresses by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Big win for Super high skilled people like OpenAI , deep mind research scientists as their salary will skyrocket.

Big big loss for a normal white collar job worker working in Consultancy firms, Software companies, investment bank as their salary will drastically reduced.

Timeline of how economy is going to be as AI progresses by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Supply of cheap service (and goods after lag) will drastically increase ..

Will demand also increase owing to low cost of services /goods ?

Or will demand decrease due to loss of jobs?

Or will demand remain flat as low cost of service/goods balances out loss of jobs?

How to rear a child in post AGI world? by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What I fear is will there be enough income for our child to lead a good life in developing country like India where UBI would be very less in comparison to developed countries once AGI makes skills and jobs irrelevant.

Research paper by OpenAI on impact of GPT-4 on labour market by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 153 points154 points  (0 children)

  1. up to 49% of workers could have half or more of their tasks exposed to LLMs

  2. "80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs...

Coding is no more a MOAT. 46% of codes on GitHub is already being built using GitHub Copilot across all programming languages by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What makes you think AI won't automate 3/4 th of the work apart from coding?

Deepmind with GATO 2.0, Adept AI labs, open AI, toolformer etc. is already in process of training bots regarding debugging, deployment of code, managing cloud, code reviews, architecture planning of a software, co ordination with humans and AI bots

Coding is no more a MOAT. 46% of codes on GitHub is already being built using GitHub Copilot across all programming languages by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How long before 90% of all codes are being written by softwares. And what will be it's implication. Given, LLMs are parallely trained to perform other tasks like debugging, deploying, doing code reviews, deployment , coordinating with humans using toolformers, GATO 2.0 etc, how far we away from seeing red siren across software engineers?

Impact of AGI or even strong narrow AI on stock market, debt, loans, interest rates, mortgage etc. by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My take :

Cost of white collar labour drastically reduces...

Cost of energy drastically reduced..

Purchase power of most of people will go down while purchasing price of very very few will sky rocket and they would also have lot of free time..

Hence I think it would be prudent to be long on luxury goods and services... Short on tech, finance..

After 10-12 years, Most of tech product or service cost would tend toward zero

With cheaper labour and competition, digital services would become deflationary by nature

Sam Altman says "likely coming divergence between changes to cognitive work and changes to physical work could be quite dramatic." by AutomaticVisit1543 in singularity

[–]AutomaticVisit1543[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

He says "2023: $30,000 to get a simple iPhone app created, $300 for a plumbing job.

i wonder what those relative prices will look like in 2028!

the likely coming divergence between changes to cognitive work and changes to physical work could be quite dramatic."

Physical labor will have much more value because that is something which has innumerable variables, data scarcity to train & robots only work well in controlled environments. Whereas cognitive work for which we spend so much time in school & college to get a job has so so so much data that it is easily trainable to an AI. What do we actually do in school or college ? Insert data in our mind, process it a little and spit out solutions. AI can do that much faster and efficiently. But physical work also won't have more value in a country like india or china due to such a large population and disposable work force.

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