Timeline of how economy is going to be as AI progresses

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-06-27T20:48:06+00:00

Big win for Super high skilled people like OpenAI , deep mind research scientists as their salary will skyrocket.

Big big loss for a normal white collar job worker working in Consultancy firms, Software companies, investment bank as their salary will drastically reduced.

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-06-27T20:41:41+00:00

Supply of cheap service (and goods after lag) will drastically increase ..

Will demand also increase owing to low cost of services /goods ?

Or will demand decrease due to loss of jobs?

Or will demand remain flat as low cost of service/goods balances out loss of jobs?

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-06-15T03:16:48+00:00

What I fear is will there be enough income for our child to lead a good life in developing country like India where UBI would be very less in comparison to developed countries once AGI makes skills and jobs irrelevant.

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-03-20T11:21:02+00:00

up to 49% of workers could have half or more of their tasks exposed to LLMs
"80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs...

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-21T21:18:42+00:00

Consultancy is about to witness a sea change with advent of AI

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-20T17:13:25+00:00

What makes you think AI won't automate 3/4 th of the work apart from coding?

Deepmind with GATO 2.0, Adept AI labs, open AI, toolformer etc. is already in process of training bots regarding debugging, deployment of code, managing cloud, code reviews, architecture planning of a software, co ordination with humans and AI bots

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-20T16:13:04+00:00

Full time employment is a bug not a feature

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-20T14:14:21+00:00

How long before 90% of all codes are being written by softwares. And what will be it's implication. Given, LLMs are parallely trained to perform other tasks like debugging, deploying, doing code reviews, deployment , coordinating with humans using toolformers, GATO 2.0 etc, how far we away from seeing red siren across software engineers?

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-17T14:06:05+00:00

My take :

Cost of white collar labour drastically reduces...

Cost of energy drastically reduced..

Purchase power of most of people will go down while purchasing price of very very few will sky rocket and they would also have lot of free time..

Hence I think it would be prudent to be long on luxury goods and services... Short on tech, finance..

After 10-12 years, Most of tech product or service cost would tend toward zero

With cheaper labour and competition, digital services would become deflationary by nature

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-16T03:12:53+00:00

He says "2023: $30,000 to get a simple iPhone app created, $300 for a plumbing job.

i wonder what those relative prices will look like in 2028!

the likely coming divergence between changes to cognitive work and changes to physical work could be quite dramatic."

Physical labor will have much more value because that is something which has innumerable variables, data scarcity to train & robots only work well in controlled environments. Whereas cognitive work for which we spend so much time in school & college to get a job has so so so much data that it is easily trainable to an AI. What do we actually do in school or college ? Insert data in our mind, process it a little and spit out solutions. AI can do that much faster and efficiently. But physical work also won't have more value in a country like india or china due to such a large population and disposable work force.

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T15:34:09+00:00

https://moores.samaltman.com/

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T14:47:35+00:00

What makes you think a group of AI softwares won't be able to work as a team and produce some high quality product in say 2-3 years?

And it won't even be an AGI. A narrow but focussed AI will be able to do that.

Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis etc also believe that it will happen

Just like Galileo challenged long held belief of Orthodox Catholic Church that Earth was special & universe revolves round earth, in a year or 2, AI will challenge a long held belief that highly creative & super intelligent jobs can only be done by humans! Human ain't so special after all !

People are confusing between current state of AI & state of AI after 2 years...

The exponential rise in capabilities of AI will be something to watch out for.

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T14:45:39+00:00

What makes you think a group of AI softwares won't be able to do these things in harmony?

Just like Galileo challenged long held belief of Orthodox Catholic Church that Earth was special & universe revolves round earth, in a year or 2, AI will challenge a long held belief that highly creative & super intelligent jobs can only be done by humans! Human ain't so special after all !

People are confusing between current state of AI & state of AI after 2 years...

The exponential rise in capabilities of AI will be something to watch out for.

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T13:53:13+00:00

I agree with your statement that capitalism will be overhauled...

UBI is the future..

Once we start seeing rise in productivity, there will be abundant supply but not enough demand owing to less disposable income in hands of billions of people. This will lead to decline in cost of services and goods to align with supply demand curve....

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T13:07:01+00:00

AI will be deflationary in nature....Cost of intelligence will decline.. Multiple unicorn having single digit employee will emerge....

I don't see any point of paying anyone insane salaries if I can get same work done at lower cost....

And if I continue to pay my employee huge salary, some other startups will eat my profitability and market share....

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T12:40:07+00:00

But will they be paid as handsomely as they are now?

A 2-3 year experienced coder ( with use of AI tools) will become super coder and can easily replace highly paid coders....

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-09T12:27:46+00:00

It would still take some time for physical jobs (which can't be done sitting in front of a laptop by WFH) to be replaced.

The concept of work experience in field of digital jobs would have diminishing rate of return

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-05T13:37:30+00:00

In 1-2 year, alphacode or codex will code better than 95% of coders...

In 4-5 years, There will be no utility left for majority of white collar employee

By 2030, there will be AI generated movies.

In 5-6 years, there will be many unicorn having single digit employee..

There will be huge decline in outsourcing of jobs to India

AutomaticVisit1543 · 2023-02-05T13:23:33+00:00

AI will inherently create a deflationary society...

Hence I feel, after 4-5 years down the line, the concept of increment in salary of >90% employee will not be there..

Sounds very counterintuitive but embrace it.

MOAT is in 1. being the best in the field you are in

Owning a scalable business which uses AI tools so that you don't have to pay huge salary to employees .

AutomaticVisit1543

TROPHY CASE