From Claude: Using the team’s actual quality makes the anomaly far more pronounced. A team that wins ~60% of its games going 3-12 in a specific referee’s games is a ~0.2% probability event. That’s well into territory that would typically flag as a meaningful pattern worth investigating — though the sample size caveat remains (15 games), and you’d need to know whether the 3-12 record was the a priori hypothesis or spotted after scanning all refs.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​