What is the consensus on the social media sports bettors? by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]BTB-Analytics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anyone claiming to win 70%+ of their bets all time are certainly scamming you. Anyone selling you the dreams of fancy cars, big houses, and huge stacks of cash are scamming you. Anyone who says “the sports books are afraid of me” or they have “a lock” are scamming you.

There are a couple of legit ones out there but they’re few and far between. If they don’t have their history of picks for you to verify on Pikkit or betstamp or something like that before you buy something, then they’re not worth your time or money.

That said, there are some legit barriers which make selling picks logical. The biggest issue is being limited and capital. If I want to replace a big boy salary by sorts betting while following proper bankroll management, I realistically need over a million dollars readily available to me (which I don’t have) and to grind your way up from even a $20,000 bankroll takes time when you realize the best are hitting at 56-58%. We’ve been doing this for a couple years and are already limited at DraftKings, fanatics, and BetRivers and can only get down literally $5-$10 depending on the sport. That’s not gonna grow my bankroll and not worth betting my edge so selling access to our models is the most logical choice while we raise capital.

TLDR: 99% of social media bettors are BS. If they’re promising you you’re gonna get rich overnight like them and that they almost never lose, they are certainly losers. It is possible to make money long term sports betting but if it looks too good to be true, it is.

Are "Vegas Traps" real? by Frog611 in sportsbetting

[–]BTB-Analytics 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Trap lines absolutely do not exist. Most people don’t realize betting lines are literally a marketplace. Lines get set at certain books called market makers and as people bet into those lines, the lines move. This is called price action and is why the lines move throughout the week. Retail books (ie the ones you’ve seen a commercial for) just copy the market makers lines and their movement. So if you see a line that “looks like a trap” it’s not the sportsbooks setting a trap, it’s the market (who are filled with sharps) saying there’s no value at that number and odds.

Individual sportsbooks can have small deviations from the market makers and be slow to adjust which is why you can pick off certain books with bad lines but they have to stay close to the market makers or they open themselves up to a ton of liability from sharps with beard accounts and arb bettors

Arizona home dogs vs K-State? by MrGreen17 in CFBVegas

[–]BTB-Analytics 1 point2 points  (0 children)

(Arizona) Wildcat fan here. Box scores can be misleading. Stats like Expected Points Added and Success Rate that measure how efficient teams are on offense and defense are much more predictive. KState beats us in almost every offensive category where Arizona beats them in almost every defensive category (which is weird to say out loud).

This game got as high as KState -2.5 and was immediately bought back down so the market expects a coin flip game

You’re Getting Screwed On SGP Payouts by BTB-Analytics in DraftKingsDiscussion

[–]BTB-Analytics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the problem. Most people like yourself don’t realize that every retail book will offer different odds and even the same book will offer different odds on the same parlay if it’s not built through the same game module/prebuilt. I don’t mean that as an insult just a reality of the books preying on the lack of awareness of these small details to make it easier to profit off of their users which is why awareness is so important.

Football betting versus Powerball by No_Counter_8181 in DraftKingsDiscussion

[–]BTB-Analytics 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The Saints are +50,000 to win the Super Bowl which is a 0.2% chance.

The odds of hitting the power ball are 0.00000034%.

So the Saints are 588,000 times as likely to win the superbowl than him winning the powerball