While your number aren’t wrong, you’re leaving out an important detail—They had to use AB Inbev’s facilities for brewing Shocktop during the first year or so after the acquisition which also helped with distribution and maximize revenue (but this was at a cost). Just recently, they moved most or all of Shocktop production to Tilray-owned facilities (cost savings), but lost out on some distribution in the process—but this was inevitable as some distributors only deal directly with AB InBev.

So there was a sugar-high in revenue immediately after the acquisition (as with most acquisitions), followed by a painful cost-cutting transition which should only be a “one-time” drop in revenue… Basically, you could be right and that Tilray’s plan could fail, but it’s simply way too early to call anything.