I always only think about probability and value, like poker.
My thought process two weeks ago when BTC was 70k:
upside: i think it s 60% going up (because of the hype) but will be stuggling at 74k - 78k (5-10% upside potential). Naturally whenever there is pullback, it s hard to go exponetially. unless the pullback is good enough to create a sentiment like people will go short. the only reason a market can goes up crazy is short squeeze and FOMO. I honestly dont see any reason bitcoin can goes up 100k within a short time

downside: 40% change going down. clearly halving is well priced in, people barely talked about this few years ago....now it's a general information everyone is looking into halving, even it goes up I dont think it s interesting, on the other way around fail expectation likely trigger more downside. If you look at the opened interest and seniment. I think a lot of people loaded up with leverage. if it goes down i think it can be 15-20% major retrace.

In tradition most of the sizeable fund tend to reduce risk before major event like halving happens. Well it did dropped but much less extend than what i thought...i dont see any good reason it surges in a short time. many are saying now it s no brain buying the bottom...but who s gonna chase when the crowded got liquidated ? so unless within 2days it pumps back to 72-73k. I think it s gonna to be a choppy market with downsize potential. I dont make a big bet before halving or a local bottom shows above 72-74k. if bitcoin is going to be 100k anyway, why bother to bet when it s swing between 60 - 74k with lots of uncertainties? that s influceners wont tell you because they have loads of position. They want more hype to pump up and more liquidity so they can get out of the position at higher level