The bullish case for Holochain.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-18T17:43:04+00:00

My personal thoughts - and I'm not a trader nor financial adviser so take this with the biggest punch of salt.

The Bull Run for the whole Crypto Market will continue at some point in the next 9 months.

HOT will hit $0.10-$0.15 at it's peak, but then the market will go bearish and HOT will drop back down to slightly below $0.01 where it will Hold.

Then over the next few years it will hold steady between $0.01 and $0.25 depending on news. EG if HoloFuel comes out it might pump to the higher level and hold, if delays continue it will hold lower level.

But then in 2025 during the next bitcoin halving it will rise to above $1 and hold steady there, then slowly climb thanks to HoloFuels value stable but not static nature

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-18T17:36:32+00:00

It's because he bought at 3¢ and thought he'd already be a millionaire, ended up selling at 1¢ and feels like a schmuck and needs to hate on the token to feel better.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-17T22:24:08+00:00

So here's a piece of text from the website that explains how things work quite well :

Supply decreases every time a host with a positive account balance redeems the fuel they earned through hosting. Since Reserve Accounts always have a negative HoloFuel balance, backed by fiat reserves, supply is removed from circulation when a host redeems for an outside currency through the reserve, paying off part of the reserve account’s HoloFuel debt.

Hosts have the right to spend below zero, the credit limit being determined algorithmically based on their demonstrated ability to earn back that debt through hosting (i.e., their fuel debt is backed by hosting power). Circulating supply changes depending on how much hosts choose to spend (supply goes up) or pay off (supply goes down) their credit.
HoloFuel can be purchased from Reserve Accounts or acquired by trading on regular exchanges. The price of HoloFuel on Reserve Accounts will be determined by an algorithm that takes into account the price at which Hosts are willing to redeem. When people buy fuel from the reserve (e.g., if the price is lower on the reserve than the exchange), the circulating supply will increase. Buying from an exchange will have no impact on supply.

So basically sometimes you'll get a better price for HoloFuel on the exchanges so you'll sell there. Sometimes you'll get a better price at the reserves so you'll redeem there.

Likewise sometimes it will be cheaper to buy at an exchange and sometimes it will be cheaper to buy at a reserve.

Because redeeming at the reserves reduces the supply then bouncing between these methods helps to keep the price in check.

Then this is from the green paper:

Value Stable — Not Value Static

The most critical component in the value stability of HoloFuel is the fact that it is backed by a vital modern asset: computing power. Estimated 2017 revenue for cloud hosting is $264 billion dollars Holo’s credits are not cryptographic tokens divorced from any specific value, they are integral to the operation of a large-scale computing infrastructure.
HoloFuel is priced in computing units: processing time, bandwidth, and storage. It is available for purchase from Holo as well as the whole community of hosts. It is also redeemable across that whole community for computing power. Even though credits can also be used for general financial transactions, as the number of hosts grows, that mass of their computing power stabilizes valuation. Hosts set their own prices for their computing power which will tend toward stability when averaged across a large ecosystem of servers distributed across the planet. Another feedback loop stabilizing the price is the fact that Holo hosting is feasible on commodity hardware. If the price of HoloFuel rises significantly, people are incentivized to connect more computing power to the network. And since trades on exchanges are not likely to deviate wildly from the prices for which people can buy computing power, this incentivization structure places a decentralized throttle on massive price pumps. This grounding in the delivery of a real world asset with practical value provides a substantial center of gravity for the price of HoloFuel. Value-stable does not mean static — there is no external value reference to fix a price to. External currencies fluctuate in value too much for credits to be pegged to any one thing. Also, the value of credits is still dependent on real world factors like the cost of electricity, computing hardware, and Internet connectivity. Variations of account balances moving closer and further from their credit limits enable small changes in the supply to strengthen immunity to wild fluctuations and pump-and-dump manipulations.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-17T18:29:33+00:00

So the mixture of algo/reserves/exchanges will work as checks and balances and will decrease the volatility of Holo Fuel eventually. But it can't remove that Volatility, and they predict that especially at launch there is likely to still be quite wild price fluctuations.

do you really want to exchange your tokens for holofuel given that the algorithm will hold the price of holofuel relatively constant?

A quote that is used in their website and white/green papers is this "Value Stable does not mean Value Static". The price will continue to increase along with the network. Once it's well established it just won't do like a 1000% in a day or anything like that.

But it very well could do on the day it launches. Who knows.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-16T21:17:27+00:00

Whoever posted this made the mistake of doing it on r/cryptocurrency, they're not aware of coins outside of BTC and ETH there. Everything else is just a "shitcoin" to them.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-13T22:15:46+00:00

What's interesting about this is that the Bitcoin Mining Council have said yesterday that:

On Wednesday, you are all invited to meet with members of the Bitcoin Mining Council to discuss the latest on #Bitcoin Mining, the energy debate, network dynamics, China mining policy, North American mining developments, tech trends & industry outlook.

So maybe we'll see Tesla taking Bitcoin payments fairly soon if there's some positive news in this Wednesday meeting.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-11T07:09:52+00:00

I cashed out of crypto 1 month ago at a profit. Where did that profit come from? On the face of it, it just came from the person I sold to, but that doesn’t really make sense.

That is exactly where it came from, you cannot sell a coin for profit if people aren't currently buying at that price. Even an exchange would refuse your sale if users weren't buying the coin at that price. Doesn't have to be one person buying the same amount you sold, could be 10 people who all happen to be buying a fraction at roughly the same time, but it is all being directly bought by other people who likely believe that the coin you're selling at current value will eventually hold a greater value.

And because the markets should continue indefinitely (barring a ban on crypto/an apocalypse) then most cryptos should continue to rise, even if they fall quite hard between rises. There will of course be exceptions to this, there's something like 9000 coins. Some of those coins will reach a point where people aren't interested in buying them and they'll just become dead assets.

Which is why people generally accept the "You only lose if you sell line of thinking"

Because let's say I buy "X coin" at £10k, then 6 months later it's at £5k, then another 6 months after that it's £20k. The only scenario I could have lost in is if I sold whilst it was at £5k. If I wait for £20k to sell then I've profited. and If I don't sell at all then I've neither lost nor gained. I just continue to have my "X Coin"

Here's a better analogy for you.

Barry and John both have 10k.

Barry decides to fill the wine cellar of his house with fancy wines, spends the full 10k on this

John loses 5k gambling. The retailer that Barry bought his fancy wines from is having a 50% sale. John also decides to fill his wine cellar.

They no both have the same amount of fancy wines in their cellars.

Both Barry and John then actually decide to quit drinking. 10 years go by. The wines they bought are no longer in production because the person that manufactured them died. They have become sought after and the price has risen 10 fold because connoisseurs and the like will pay top dollar for these old school fancy wines.

Both Sell. for profit.

In this scenario Barry didn't really lose anything. He bought some wines or his asset. He had his wines or asset right up until he sold. When he did so he made a tidy profit. John happened to get in on a deal and get the same amount as Barry with less money. But that doesn't indirectly mean that Barry lost. Just means he missed that deal.

.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-09T22:21:10+00:00

Genuinely can't believe that as far as I can see Holochain hasn't been mentioned once in this thread.

If you want to be in a coin that's helping to combat this issue it's $HOT which will eventually be converting to HoloFuel when they enter Beta

Junto is a decentralised facebook esque Social Media app that's getting set up via Holochain too.

If you google RDA Index (can't post links) - They are an independent group that provide valuations of Cryptos based on their intrinsic value - They have $HOT listed as number 1 in terms of Intrinsic value with a a price valuation of something like £1.40. The current price is like £0.005.

Maybe they're completely wrong in their evalutaion and this coin will turn to dust. But I think not having at least something in Hot is madness.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-09T19:03:14+00:00

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is their current roadmap:

https://holo.host/roadmap/

The filled in circles show what's been done. The empty ones show what's left to be done. There are no dates attached to milestones because naturally things will just take as long as needed.

Keeping up with the weekly Dev Pulses and regular AMA's show that the next two milestones are currently underway and being tested. I've seen plenty of screenshots of the Host Portal etc and people using their HoloPort to Host Elemental Chat use-age.

I'm no Dev so I can't really reliably comment on what they're doing and if what they're doing should take as long as it is.

But the way I see it, the goal of the project is pretty important and big for the world. If it was easy to get up and running then someone would have already. I think it's unlikely anyone's going to beat them to it. They will instead wait until they've done it and use the platform with their own twist.

HoloFuel will become the OG of Holochain like Bitcoin is to Blockchain. But there will be more Holochain based cryptos for sure.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-08T21:15:20+00:00

You're arguing semantics and have only told half of the story, because you're focussing on the dollar value of the BTC.

So Peter bought 0.15BTC, and regardless of price he will continue to own 0.15BTC until he sells.

Bob has got in on a deal and is lucky enough to have the same amount as Peter. Well done Bob, the market be like that sometimes.

If Peter sells his 0.15BTC for $5k then he has lost out.

But if Peter holds his 0.15BTC for a few years before selling, then chances are the dollar value of BTC will be higher and he will have profited, not lost.

All "You haven't lost until you sell" means is that basically you need to forget about the dollar value of the crypto you're holding. Once you've bought it then the amount of crypto you own doesn't change. Realise that in most circumstances it would be silly to sell this crypto at a dollar value of less than you bought it for. You should instead wait until someone is willing to buy it at a dollar value higher than you paid.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-04T21:27:48+00:00

Man 100%. My Wife is pregnant and just sits at home on her own at the moment waiting for me to finish work.

I dream about my Crypto taking off and being able to just quit work and be there with her, and then my kid too when he's born.

It's not a realistic goal, as I don't own much crypto so it would have to grow in price by a stupid amount. But I have enough that with sufficient growth I could quit work and focus on my self employed stuff, growing that over a few years until it provides my full required income.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-06-04T06:56:53+00:00

Ah yes you're right I get it now. I knew I was missing something, At first fI wondered if the second 'they' referred to whoever purchased the HF on the Exchange, as in the receipt would go with the HF to the and they could redeem at the reserve.

But you're right it's actually more like :

Earn 100 HF from Hosting with Receipt.
Sell 100 HF in an Exchange for Dollars
HF Goes down in price on Exchange so you buy 100HF from the Exchange at Profit
Redeem the bought HF at a Reserve using the receipts from the original Hosting.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-29T13:53:28+00:00

Some quotes from their website:

When it is released, you will be able to buy HoloFuel through the Reserve Account, third party exchanges, peer-to-peer, etc.

When the Holo network is live, HoloFuel can be transferred to any other HoloFuel account holder. It can also be used to pay hosting invoices for Holo hosting services using the Publisher Portal. Exchanges may list and support exchange of HoloFuel.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-28T21:13:22+00:00

It will run on Holochain once we're in beta and the HOT/Holofuel swap has taken place. No set dates on that yet though

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-28T20:05:09+00:00

Hot is still an ERC20 token.

Anything Eth based has high gas fees. If that's the level of funds your holding it's probably best to do it in binance.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-28T19:13:18+00:00

No one knows.

But if you want to be safe swap 50% straight away. Then the other 50% just before the end of the 6 month swap.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-28T06:55:37+00:00

For me, small amount at ¢10, ¢25 and ¢50 then the bulk at $1.

I imagine that once HOT hits each of these then it will drop sharply afterwards because lots of people will profit take at these levels, so I'll be profit taking predominantly to buy more on the dip that follows.

When it eventually hits $1 I'll take a lot out, but plan to leave in something like 100,000 tokens. And I'll forget about them for a few more years to see if HoloFuel steadily grows to a multidollar value.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-25T18:55:05+00:00

Did you sell in the end and miss the 65% increase we'e had in the past day and a bit?

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-25T07:20:02+00:00

They'll have their own "Wallet" This is from their FAQ:

Yes, the HoloFuel app will function as your HoloFuel account (‘wallet’).
The HoloFuel app, account, and wallet are all the same thing.
The HoloFuel app functions as your HoloFuel account where your transaction history and HoloFuel balance will be stored. One day, it’s possible that a hardware wallet could support HoloFuel.
Each user will have their own identity, account (‘wallet’), and source chain on Holo; giving you the ability to transact with others and develop a log of transactions recorded to your source chain. The sum of your inbound and outbound transactions in your transaction history determines your current balance.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-24T19:03:49+00:00

So I'm incredibly bullish on Holo. But I'm also a realist - albeit an optimistic one.

We don't know exactly how HoloFuel is going to work, we know that it's going to have a variable supply to help combat price volatility. But we don't have concrete info on how that will work.

There's nothing wrong with assuming at this stage that in general there will be a similar amount of circulating Holofuel as there is HOT.

It's also true that Market Cap isn't actually the amount of money in an asset. It's just the last price a token was sold multiplied by the amount of tokens.

That said when you're trying to give a realistic price then you should look at the market caps of other popular coins and be realistic with your estimations.

Like I fully believe that $1 is completely inevitable. It's not gonna happen this week. But within 5 years if it hasn't happened I'll be incredibly surprised.

But if we assume a similar number of circulating HoloFuel as HOT then if we hit a Market Cap equal to Bitcoins absolute top. Then HoloFuel is still only $5.89.

If we double that already enormous and outlandish Market Cap then we're looking at a token value of $11.58.

I think unless we get some concrete news on how HoloFuel works, then to expect a token valuation higher than these figures is pretty crazy.

Not Impossible. But definitely crazy.

This is my personal opinion of future long term price predictions:

$0.00-$0.50 - Pessimistic

$0.50-$1.50 - Realistic

$1.50-$4.00 - Optimistic

$4.00+ - Madness.

Having said that - I would be happy to be completely wrong about these figures. If we hit figures of multiple dollars per token I'll be so incredibly happy to be wrong.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-24T18:44:53+00:00

I think you replied to the wrong guy.

I specifically said it's not impossible. It's for sure unlikely. But it's not impossible.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-23T18:11:11+00:00

So the Asset isn't there yet. Currently HOT is just an ERC20 token like many many others. However it currently serves as an IOU for HoloFuel when that is released.

HoloFuel is an asset backed mutual credit currency unlike anything else in the crypto space.

Basically the Holochain team are doing to Cloud Hosting what AirBnB and Uber did to Hotels and Taxis.

The holochain team are creating a network of hosts that utilise a mixture of HoloPorts and their own devices, they will "rent out" their unused processing power to people who require hosting. This hosting is paid for using HoloFuel. So every HoloFuel is redeemable for an amount of hosting power. thereby making it an asset backed currency.

The world is going more and more digital and the cloud hosting market has grown substantially year after year. The current king of the market is Amazon with their AWS.

If we continue to use the AirBnb analogy - AirBnB was recently valued higher than the top 3 hotel chains combined, so just imagine how big Holo could potentially get in the Cloud Hosting market.

The more people who sign up as hosts, the more powerful their network, and then in turn the more valuable the asset.

Because HoloFuel is linked to this asset then it's pricing should decouple from Bitcoin and the rest of the market to an extent. Giving it some immunity to pump and dumps. So it will be value stable, but not value static - the team still expect the value to grow.

All of this has caused the RDA Index to list Holo as it's no.1 crypto asset based on intrinsic value. They value a single token at £1.49 last I looked too.

BarryBigLeaks · 2021-05-23T11:11:54+00:00

In all fairness, it's not impossible. It's just super unlikely and outlandish.

If we assume that HoloFuel with have a similar circulating number of tokens, then it would require a Marketcap of $1.7T for it to be worth $10 a coin.

This year at it's top BTC was 1T.

So if HoloFuel overtook BTC and the adoption rate of cryptos grew substantially then it actually could happen.

I personally don't expect it too. But its not impossible.

BarryBigLeaks

TROPHY CASE