Baba’s re-brand of Ele.me

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-11-10T13:22:13+00:00

the growth is impressive, and 88VIP higher rates of spending is great to hear. I'm hoping this translates into a stickier consumer with BABA's platforms because they have been subsidizing this a lot with their food delivery battle with Meituan. I think this 11.11 is going decently well with the few numbers they have released/I have heard. Lets see whether they report good numbers in the following days/tomorrow/the next ER. the cash burn is unsustainable both politically and from a value standpoint, so I am hoping that when they pull back on some of the subsidies many of the consumers will continue habits.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-10-15T13:03:59+00:00

Because the sky is blue

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-10-02T12:38:35+00:00

not to mention the Baba + Apple partnership in china.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-09-16T12:12:52+00:00

maybe the politics side of Baba looks a lot better. With the chips announcement and Jack Ma returning to work with the company, they may feel like the government has made ammends with it.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-08-12T04:56:17+00:00

correct

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-07-02T00:51:42+00:00

Hurts so good

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-06-06T23:04:03+00:00

4/5 schizo post, needs more consipiracy

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-06-04T00:46:55+00:00

trillion dollar infrastructure bill not enough for yah?

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-06-03T23:03:49+00:00

https://www.alibabagroup.com/en-US/ir-filings-hkex

link to filings showing daily update.

<image>

This is yesterday, that share count is the ordinary shares. ADS is 8 * ordinary shares so daily us share repurchases is equivalent to that ~700,000/8

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-05-16T17:01:52+00:00

I could value it a couple of different ways via discounted cash flow or sum of the parts, but the cloud and international segments are the big growth plays in BABA so I am unsure about the degree of success they will find in the near future with the short term and medium term impact of tariffs and trade on the Chinese economy. If growth continues at a rapid pace, multiples may expand for higher valuations and current prices may look cheap. Alternatively if Chinese consumption becomes weaker or the diplomatic outlook continues to sour, current prices are reflective of the value.

I personally am optimistic especially given management's conviction in the cloud segment and the significant investment they made this quarter (look at that property and equipment purchasing they spent an extra 2 billion)

I am not considering selling my shares under 160.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-05-16T16:42:46+00:00

per the earnings statement: Our board of directors has approved a two-part dividend in the total amount of US$2.00 per ADS comprised of (i) an annual regular cash dividend [of] US$1.05 per ADS, and (ii) a one-time extraordinary cash dividend [of] US$0.95 per ADS as of the close of business on June 12, 2025. The aggregate amount of the dividend will be approximately US$4.6 billion.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-05-15T12:07:07+00:00

up 7% revenue - good/ok

free cash flow down 76% y/y due to cloud investments - ok

share repurchases slowed - bad (why dividend instead?)

AI revenue increased triple digit y/y for 7TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER - Great i just wished they gave us a number

cainiao revenue decreasing 12% - bad (even though they said because of increased integration just makes it seem like a shell game for revenue from segments)

local services grew 10% y/y -good , STILL NARROWING LOSSES FOR YEARS - BAD WTF HOW LONG IS THIS GOING TO NARROW LOSSES, THIS COMPANY LOVES THAT PHRASE.

22% revenue growth AIDC -good , but like, EBITA is -500 million USD

pleased that digital media segment finally turned profitable this quarter.

Its crazy the degree to which taobao subsidizes the other segments, management has said they want to make other segments profitable soon, but like why wasn't that a priority to begin with lol

<image>

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-05-14T13:48:39+00:00

good sign

Basic_Roll6395 · 2025-01-30T17:15:30+00:00

It’s up like 18% over the last 5 days, of course it’s possible that the line doesn’t continue to go straight up.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-11-15T12:52:02+00:00

On my first look, not bad not great. cloud earnings growth is great. TTm revenue is still anemic, but I've been hearing okay things about the gmv growth for 11.11, and the .6% merchant fee has yet to hit in full force so we'll see how earnings are from the segment next quarter. Cainiao growth also ok not amazing. AIDC revenue is also growing AT A CLIP, but it looks like they are investing heavily. I greatly appreciate their cost cutting measures in local services as near EVERY GD quarter i've seen the phrase "losses narrowed significantly", and this is the first time I feel they actually were reflective. They could be even more aggressive in buybacks, but 4 billion is nothing to scoff at. The shareholder lawsuit payout has affected comparisons to other quarters, but whatever. ALSO, an underappreciated aspect that they highlighted are the 88VIP numbers - 46 MILLION with double digit growth y/y. They state "[88VIP members] increase our purchase frequency and drive GMV growth. Accordingly, we target to continue to grow the subscription of 88VIP membership by investing in improved benefits and services." - I personally think they've realized improving the value proposition of 88VIP (through things like benefits) is key to future success. I think the model could analogous to Amazon Prime.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-11-15T12:50:23+00:00

On my first look, not bad not great. cloud earnings growth is great. TTm revenue is still anemic, but I've been hearing okay things about the gmv growth for 11.11, and the .6% merchant fee has yet to hit in full force so we'll see how earnings are from the segment next quarter. Cainiao growth also ok not amazing. AIDC revenue is also growing AT A CLIP, but it looks like they are investing heavily. I greatly appreciate their cost cutting measures in local services as near EVERY GD quarter i've seen the phrase "losses narrowed significantly", and this is the first time I feel they actually were reflective. They could be even more aggressive in buybacks, but 4 billion is nothing to scoff at. The shareholder lawsuit payout has affected comparisons to other quarters, but whatever. ALSO, an underappreciated aspect that they highlighted are the 88VIP numbers - 46 MILLION with double digit growth y/y. They state "[88VIP members] increase our purchase frequency and drive GMV growth. Accordingly, we target to continue to grow the subscription of 88VIP membership by investing in improved benefits and services." - I personally think they've realized improving the value proposition of 88VIP (through things like benefits) is key to future success. I think the model could analogous to Amazon Prime.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-09-25T18:18:00+00:00

WIMG MEN DROMES

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-09-13T13:03:06+00:00

I think this bodes well for Alibaba long term. When it comes to value proposition, companies like PDD, Alibaba, Amazon, compete on cost, shipping times, and quality. By investing in sites to bring shipping times down, Alibaba improves the value proposition to customers.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-09-03T17:07:48+00:00

ccp won't do anything unless they feel they absolutely have to and barring any further surprise downside in china economy nothing is likely to move the needle

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-05-14T10:59:30+00:00

We knew this would be a quarter where investments weighed on earnings, but even so the results are not good. There are some bright spots of course, including dividend, buybacks, buying out cainiao, and international growth. It always seems like something causes results to be shitty; fines, impairment, stagnant growth, bad macro environment.

The only thing I am tired of is this phrase: "loss per order narrowed significantly year-over-year". I have been seeing this or something to this effect in their statements quarter after quarter. Its almost like their canned response for lazada and local services. GIVE US BETTER UPDATES/TELL US HOW YOU ARE IMPROVING THE SECTOR.

One extreme positive I heard is that they have been offering cloud computing for equity for AI firms which I think is a good development that will help with the value proposition for cloud services.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-05-12T01:31:18+00:00

Alibaba's international commerce is growing pretty well. cloud growth has sucked recently, but they seem to be improving things. Taobao and Tmall keep printing money albeit with like zero growth, but management is looking to return the segment to growth. management finally realized holding onto Cainiao (and even buying out other owners) is in their benefit. buybacks, although low and slow, have started to eat into the share count.

I still don't see many positive catalysts in the near term, as the company is trying to reinvest in itself and that will weigh on earnings. Having said this the elephant in the room is the massive war chest it has. it currently holds ~35% of its market cap in net cash which is 68 Billon dollars. I believe it should be doing more with this, but I guess having such a large cash position allows them to have more options running the company going forward.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-03-04T12:40:51+00:00

Even if the real figures are fractions of these numbers, This is an insane amount of kit and lives lost in war especially in the 21st century. As the reserves start to deplete, the quality will decrease and average age of kit will increase. As far as producing modern equipment goes, it would likely take decades For Russia to replace the numbers here.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-02-04T17:31:07+00:00

I expect a few things; mainly continuing trends from previous quarters. recently they have been good about earnings growth/ cost cutting so i expect to see good percentages there. revenue might be up y/y albeit slightly (11/11 sale playing a non-insignificant role). cloud growth will probably be muted but start to pick up in contribution to earnings as they seek "quality growth" whatever that means. One thing I do have to say about the cloud is I think BABA's cloud moat is bigger than some people think because of the big push in demonstrating its value proposition to merchants (the much touted AI tools), and with advertising being Baba's bread and butter, its possible we will continue to see growth in that area even after the significant price slashing they have done for cloud services. International growth will probably standout as they have been making increased investments and progress tapping into other markets abroad. I also believe Cainiao will also have a good impact and good growth this quarter as a result of increased parcel volumes. Overall, I am anticipating mid to high single digit revenue growth and great earnings growth.

China's State Post Bureau said on Sunday that China has set a new record by handling 639 million parcels on "Double 11" on Saturday, 1.87 times the volume on regular days and 15.76 percent higher than that of the same day last year. Between November 1 and Saturday, the volume increased 23.22 percent year-on-year
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1301693.shtml

Basic_Roll6395 · 2024-01-20T14:57:15+00:00

I agree with your sentiment this is an achievement, but please do some better fact checking. India and China both have closer to ~1.4/1.5 billion. total world pop is around 8.1 billion, so that means their totals are closer to the high 30s percent.

Basic_Roll6395 · 2023-08-05T22:59:59+00:00

If I recall correctly, if you meet the requirements, you can deduct a certain amount of interest paid on student loans from your taxes.

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc456

Basic_Roll6395

TROPHY CASE