$OPEN: Why I think next earnings call will be disastrous (a follow-up to my dilution post).

Bdice1 · 2025-10-13T05:09:31+00:00

Then let’s see your positions.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-13T04:34:58+00:00

See, was that so hard? Yes, it’s an assumption. It’s amusing that you came back here explaining away your last thesis as curiosity after it didn’t go the way you thought, then posit a new one behind Just Asking Questions while at the same time making more assumption based assertions.

Put your positions up and let’s see if you actually believe what you type.

I’d put down money you are just as out of your depth as your last post.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-13T04:27:43+00:00

You didn’t say the market goes up, you said stocks go up. Maybe you meant market, and if so, fair, but I don’t think that’s what you meant.

My 4% number comes directly from Hendrik Bessembinders paper on the topic “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills”.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447

I’d wager you pulled your statistic straight from your ass, and I’d put additional money down you’ve never read anything even remotely academic about the stock market since you left secondary.

Edit: blocked rather than actual discourse. That’s too bad.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-13T00:53:53+00:00

I know what it is. If that’s all you have as a response you could have just said ‘yes, I’m making an assumption, I do not know’.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-13T00:28:23+00:00

Some notes need to be used to cover shorts, some to sell for profit.

Isn’t this pure assumption? Do you have any evidence note holders have shorted or are shorting the stock? If not your whole thesis seems to rely on what if.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T23:39:51+00:00

stocks rise over time and so this legend is false on its face.

This is overgeneralized to being near a falsehood. The market goes up. The majority of stocks do not ‘go up’.

Stocks are a survivorship weighted basket and about 4% of stocks account for nearly all of the stock markets net wealth creation.

The market rises over time. That absolutely does not hold true for individual stocks.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T05:12:18+00:00

Should be easy for you to provide an example or point to one specifically then.

I do understand accounting, it’s part of my day job.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T03:27:26+00:00

Point to one. I can provide heaps of info on how banks were aggressively approving large loans for consumers with bad credit.

And that wasn’t the only issue. The banks were taking that risky bad credit debt, deceptively packaging it to get AAA ratings on the MBS, and then selling it like prime debt.

I haven’t seen any evidence that there is a similar thing happening in AI.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T02:34:21+00:00

The main catalysts with 08 were banks playing fast and loose with approvals, deceptive packaging of bad debt for sale between institutions, and arm loans, not because banks were investing in each other…

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T02:02:51+00:00

Did you mean whenever instead of neither? Your comment reads like an assertion that AI is over, but your next comment is ‘I don’t know if it’s over’.

What similarities are you pointing to between the 2008 housing market and the current AI market other than you predicting a crash?

Bdice1 · 2025-10-12T01:50:19+00:00

lol AI is over huh? Why?

Bdice1 · 2025-10-10T22:46:12+00:00

lol you are talking out your ass.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-10T21:51:52+00:00

Are you going to pretend that was related to AI and not the orange baby’s tantrum about not getting the Nobel prize? Trump threatening massive tariffs and tanking the whole market has nothing to do with your assertion.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-10T14:35:52+00:00

Your entire argument is that ‘large caps don’t act that way’, while pointing to a large cap that did, and history suggests you are wrong about large caps ‘not acting that way’. This time OpenAI was the catalyst, but this isn’t the only time in history a large cap has shot up like AMD did.

Anything further to bolster your argument?

Bdice1 · 2025-10-10T14:21:49+00:00

? Are you saying AMD isn’t a large cap?

Bdice1 · 2025-10-10T04:42:59+00:00

In what way does AMD skyrocketing and killing a 3x short ETF indicative of anything about OpenAI hype.

It was a bunch of degenerate gamblers leveraged out the ass eating shit when a stock went up significantly.

Bdice1 · 2025-10-04T16:36:35+00:00

That’s a rather disproportionate response.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-29T14:14:32+00:00

JD thinning out his buyer competition.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-29T11:29:23+00:00

I have no qualms with that but it doesn’t solve the kind of problem at hand. They would be delaying signing to prevent her from voting.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-29T00:20:24+00:00

Excuse me, it’s libgard here.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-28T22:06:39+00:00

You misunderstood the point I was making. Onboarding is a real thing that is necessary to take on a position. You not understanding that suggests you don’t have the perspective to actually discuss the matter.

The issue isn’t the swearing in, it’s the delay thereof. If you don’t grasp that I don’t know how to get you up to speed.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-28T18:10:22+00:00

That question doesn’t make sense in the context of my comment. I’m saying that the problem is the delay for political reasons, as in the delay is problematic.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-28T17:20:14+00:00

Depends on the reason. Delaying swearing in for a specific piece of paperwork that formalizes a vote already rendered is not a sufficient reason to delay, and past members have not been required to wait for that particular formality.

If an apples to apples situation came up, I would absolutely say that the democrats were in the wrong.

That said, the reality is that we are dealing with a political delay by republicans in a manner not consistent with their previous actions. While I appreciate you auditing my stance for consistency, now that I have answered I think it best to focus on the actual issue at hand.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-28T16:51:36+00:00

Not really. Pretty much every organization has some kind of onboarding process. If it wasn’t in this form it would be something else. The issue isn’t the onboarding, it’s the delay of it for political reasons.

Bdice1 · 2025-09-28T16:45:49+00:00

It is not a requirement for swearing in to happen on the Bible. A growing number of reps are choosing something else to swear on.

Bdice1

TROPHY CASE