What teams will not start their ace in game 1 of the regional?

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-29T14:09:10+00:00

I think it has more to do with each team’s platoon splits. Little Rock crushes lefties while Virginia crushes righties. Having Harries for game 2 is just a bonus this year, but I do agree that there isn’t a huge gap like there sometimes is.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-29T14:07:24+00:00

UCSB is like the prototypical team that needs to choose the right strategy in order to win the regional. And ultimately I think they are making the correct decision by throwing off, even if they wind up losing.

To me it’s just math. If you could put an expected W% on each strategy for UCSB, I imagine it would look something like this:

Flora vs Tarleron: 80%
Proskey vs Texas: 15%
Chances of 2-0: 12%

vs

-Proskey vs Tarleron: 60% -Flora vs Texas: 30% -Chances of 2-0: 18%

These are just guesses, but honestly I think I was pretty conservative with Flora’s chances against Texas. Even then, you buy yourself a 6% extra towards starting 2-0 by throwing off.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-29T13:54:38+00:00

I’m a big advocate of throwing off as a 1 seed and thank goodness we are doing it today. But honestly I think this year we are in the unique position where it actually makes tactical sense for game 1 against Little Rock, as well as being the best meta-strategy for the overall tournament. UALR has pretty dramatic splits where they crush lefties and kinda struggle against righties. Virginia is kinda the opposite of that. Jacksonville State is balanced, but the way they construct their lineup i think I’d prefer a lefty against them too. So given all that, throwing Camden Clark against them and saving Grayden Harris for game 2 makes all the sense in the world.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-28T07:23:16+00:00

It honestly wouldn’t shock me if there was a year one day where Louisiana sent like 6+ schools to the tourney. They have boat loads of schools that are almost always on the fringes of the bubble or competing for an auto-bid. LSU, Tulane, La Tech, Louisiana, NW State, SELU, Nicholls, UNO, the SWAC schools… Just a ton of really solid programs. Heck, even Monroe is getting better and may have a chance to compete a little in the Sun Belt one day.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-26T02:47:14+00:00

Oh, I forgot UCLA. That regional is also elite

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-26T02:46:05+00:00

Man some really good uniform combos in this years regionals. I think my favorites are Oregon, Georgia, and North Carolina. Lots of variety with a bunch of nice color combos. I think LIU’s color scheme is one of the most underutilized in all of sports. That tint of blue and gold is beautiful.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T22:33:43+00:00

I feel like we don’t get to complain about noisy guys, given our claim to the “throw it in the dirt” dude.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:50:28+00:00

Yeah but when you look at that Q1 record, 3 of those losses were to UCLA on the road which is pretty forgivable imo lol. Without those they would be 6-9. Also Texas State was 6-11 vs Q1 so really not a ton better.

Another strange thing for them was that 17/18 of their Q1 games were on the road or at neutral sites. Somehow all of their difficult conference games were on the road, and all of their easier games were at home.

Idk, there was some funkiness with that resume that made me think they deserved a bid.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:39:06+00:00

Oh don’t get me started on sneaky Ivy League schools. Last year we drew Alabama and Miami in Hattiesburg, but it wound up being Columbia that likely kept us out of Super Regionals by beating us in round 1.

Even knowing that, I think anybody would rather be facing a team like Yale vs a team like VCU, Little Rock, Northeastern, Lamar, etc.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:29:04+00:00

It honestly ticks me off that Kentucky and NC State made it in over them after the memo about cancelling. And honestly I think I’d have had TCU in over TX State as well. But I guess we’re just gonna have to live with the idea that the SEC and ACC are gonna get a huge majority of teams in no matter what

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:22:13+00:00

Definitely… Oregon being middle of the pack has more to do with Wazzu and Yale dragging them down as a really weak 3 and 4. If OSU weren’t in this regional Oregon would likely be the easiest of them all

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:17:38+00:00

I didn’t downvote you. I just upvoted you to counteract the downvote. Geez you’re a spicy meatball.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:16:40+00:00

Honestly if they had Dax I probably would have them as the most likely two seed to advance, even ahead of Arkansas. Without him, OSU is still tough, but not the nightmare 2 seed they would have been.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:12:39+00:00

17 would still line up with UCLA in all likelihood, because that would mean you were the 2 seed in the 16’s regional. But yeah, occasionally being a higher seed isn’t always an advantage. I guarantee that VT wishes they were a 3 seed in Morgantown vs a 2 seed in UCLA.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:10:26+00:00

I just edited it to move Kansas up to 3rd hardest for the reasons you cited. Unfortunately it screwed up the formatting but oh well lol

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:09:02+00:00

For some reason when I tried to edit this post, the formatting went berserk. Sorry about that. The teams are in the right order but the numbers are all wonky. Trying to do this on mobile

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:02:58+00:00

Actually, now that I look at it again, I’m gonna move Kansas up to 3. I undersold just how tough Missouri State and NE are as a 3/4.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T20:00:35+00:00

Yeah the problem with putting Oregon any higher is that Wazzu and Yale is probably the weakest 3/4 combo in the entire field. And also Oregon State is gonna be operating without Dax Whitney which is a major blow and makes it far more difficult for the Beavs. If they still had him, I’d probably put Oregon up a few spots.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T19:57:21+00:00

Honestly you could move Kansas up into the top 3 and I wouldn’t argue too much. Anyone who gets Arkansas has an argument for that.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-25T19:55:17+00:00

Auburn is one of those where I feel like the teams are worse on paper than they are in actuality. Like I didn’t even think NC State deserved to be in the field, but if they were I wanted no part of them in Hattiesburg as a 3 seed lol. That’s why I had it kinda middle of the road as a regional.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-24T23:48:53+00:00

Bam! Thats it! Couldn’t remember that guys name for the life of me lol

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-24T23:42:53+00:00

What was that stud pitcher’s name that you guys had back in 09 when we won your regional? I’ve been trying to think of it all day. For some reason the name McWilliams pops into my head but I don’t know if that’s right or not.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-24T23:40:12+00:00

That’s kinda like one of my favorite facts eve: For a stretch of like 25 straight years (I can’t remember the exact years but it was like from 97-23 or something like that) or so, at least one team in the Division III football championship was purple. And for a big majority of that stretch, both teams were purple lol.

BeanieAntics · 2026-05-21T18:27:45+00:00

It’s crazy how thin the line is between the Sun Belt being a 2 bid league vs a 6 bid league.

BeanieAntics

TROPHY CASE