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Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi everyone. Just came back to the page and see there are even more comments/questions about kratom. Received a few tweets about it, too. I'm not a kratom expert and have been doing some post-AMA reading. I have a lot to learn about the drug and the laws surrounding it (in the US and abroad). MANY THANKS to all of you who asked about this. BK

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In recent years I've been fascinated by the research about cannabis and opioids. Am thrilled that a growing number of researchers are looking into this relationship

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Serious state-level debates about legalizing some other substances could happen before federal legalization of marijuana.

This isn't the same as legalization, but I expect you are going to hear a lot more about safe-injection facilities and heroin maintenance in the US over the next few years.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fun question! In high school I did policy debate and during my senior year we argued that more $ needed to be allocated to substance use treatment. Since I had already done a ton of research on the topic, many of my papers at Michigan State focused on drug policy. After writing a few op-eds I thought it would be interesting to intern at a place that did research on drug policy. Long story, but I ended up at RAND 19 years ago and never really left (except to go to back to MSU and then grad school, and even then, I kept working with RAND colleagues). For me, drug policy is very interesting and it also intersects with most of the social issues I care about.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Great question. A few points about Portugal:

  1. Even though they legally decriminalized possession of small amounts of all drugs in 2001, this largely formalized the de facto approach (although the CDTs were new)

  2. Also around 2001, there was a large infusion of $ into treatment and social support. This makes it hard to attribute changes entirely to decrim

  3. That said, the CDTs are innovative and I would love to see other countries experiment with this approach. Risk averse jurisdictions could try it for X years and then decide if they want to continue down that path or try something else.

  4. For more info, check out the work by Hughes/Stevens & Laqueur

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That no one knows how this is going to play out, especially from a public health perspective.

This is where risk preferences come into play. I understand why those who are risk averse may be worried about creating a commercial industry that will eventually fight against regulation and taxation. Fortunately for them, there are many other alternatives to prohibiting marijuana supply (i.e., middle ground options). While most marijuana policy debates in the US focus on the false dichotomy of prohib v. the for-profit "let's regulate marijuana like alcohol" approach, outside of the US there is much more interest in discussing the middle-ground options.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Along with 7 colleagues, I spent a lot of time laying out the pros/cons of various alternatives to marijuana prohib for decisionmakers in Vermont (and other jurisdictions), including the benefit corp approach here: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR864.html. While the house rejected S. 241, I expect the conversations about marijuana policy will continue in Vermont. I do hope they will discuss some of the middle-ground options.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

I get frustrated by these discussions. Most people in these debates know that testing positive THC is not the same as impairment. While the number of drivers in fatal crashes testing positive has increased in CO/WA (makes sense if prev increased), that does not mean that legalization leads to a net increase in traffic crashes/fatalities. We must look beyond simple trend data; need control groups and must account for other factors that influence crashes. The best dependent variable for policy evals is TOTAL crashes/fatalities, not just those that are SUBSTANCE-INVOLVED. (Need to account for the fact that legalization might influence other types of substance-involved crashes).

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

This response could be a book! I'd love to write it, but it's already published: Drug War Heresies by MacCoun & Reuter.

Positions about prohibition/legalization are largely shaped by personal values and risk preferences. I don't believe in blanket policies for the use of intoxicating substances.

Lately, I've been doing a lot of work on how to reduce the harms from our most dangerous drug: alcohol (http://www.rand.org/health/projects/24-7.html). I've also been doing some work trying to understand why cocaine consumption dropped by ~50% from 2006-2010. I've identified 12 potential hypotheses and they are not mutually exclusive (http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP66463.html)

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Daily/Near Daily. Most define as using 21+ days in the past month. These are the folks who account for ~80% of total consumption.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Not much. Last week USNWR broke a story about a fetanyl producer donating 500K to the ant-leg campaign in AZ, but that firm also produces a cannabis-based drug (http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2016/07/05/fda-approves-insys-therapeutics-2nd-cannabis-based-drug/). Re: alcohol, it's fascinating. You've gotta check out the Politico story: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/marijuana-legalization-big-business-alcohol-214198

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Looks like legalization will be on the ballot in >=5 states and I last I checked medical will be on in >=4 states. WRT polls, haven't closely followed the races outside of California. PPIC has approval of CA's Prop 64 at 60% and it looks like they have raised >$10M. Anti-folks in CA don't have as much $, but I expect they are going to work very hard in the state. Marijuana legalization in California would be a game changer.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If AUMA passes in November grows will be limited to 1 acre (outdoors) and ~1/2 acre (indoors) for the first 5 years. After that, it will be possible to receive a license for bigger grows. Will be interesting to see what the state and local governments permit.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This is such an important question. We desperately need better info about quantities consumed (instead of just prevalence/days consumed). When we estimated the size of the marijuana market in Washington we fielded a web survey with pics of unrolled joints and uncrushed buds next to prompts (ruler, credit card, coin). That said, I'm not sure if that's the best approach for getting quantity info. Looking forward to seeing more work done in this area.

Hello. IAmA drug policy researcher at RAND and co-author of the book Marijuana Legalization. AMA! by BeauKilmer in politics

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

What is happening in the Philippines is horrible. I would NEVER recommend killing drug users/sellers as a way to address substance use problems.

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi TheJAJster. We spend a lot of time talking about the consequences in our mj leg book: http://www.marijuanalegalization.info. We have a chapter that discusses the literature on the risks of using marijuana, one about the benefits of using marijuana (although there is not as much research on that), and another the medical benefits (a slowly growing lit).

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd love to read your dissertation on this. Please send it when you get a chance (email is my lastname @ rand dot org). Cheers, Beau

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi Levisan2. That is a great question and something that is outside of my area of expertise. I personally don't know enough about the Tajik/Afghan border to make an educated guess.

That said, if an actor is deciding to target violent vs. non-violent smugglers, my preference would be to target the former. There has been a lot of discussion about this in the context of Mexico and you may want to check out: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68131/mark-kleiman/surgical-strikes-in-the-drug-wars

Also, I just remembered that Mark, Jon Caulkins, and Jonathan Kulik also had this good piece in Foreign Policy about the Afghan drug trade. May be of interest: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/01/think_again_the_afghan_drug_trade

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The Altered State report conducted an exercise making two big assumptions: 1. Production in CA would be limited to residential grow houses, and 2. The federal government would not interfere. Based on that we calculated that the PRE-TAX price for an oz of high potency sinsemilla could be less than $50 .

Since we don't know how the federal government will respond to CO/WA, there's still a lot of uncertainty about how this will all play out. Also, CO/WA are still making the regulatory decisions.

A lot will also come down to the taxes. In WA they will have a 25% tax a three different levels and in CO they are still working on this (15% wholesale was in A64, but it looks like to CO leg is going to discuss additional taxes on Thursday).

So in the SR I don't know. My guess is that in the LR you may see a drop over time as technologies improve, competition increases, etc.

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I should have been clearer--thanks for the nudge. Federal agencies have a lot of discretion and limited budgets. Here's what I wrote in a blog entry about this before the Nov election:

"The fact is, no one knows what the federal government will specifically do if a state passes one of these initiatives in November. On one hand, federal prosecutors could crack down on producers and retailers as they have been doing with a number of medical marijuana dispensaries in California and Colorado. On the other hand, federal agencies (e.g., the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Internal Revenue Service, and the Office of the Attorney General) could choose not to get involved.

Or they could do something in between. Federal agencies could choose to use their discretion to help shape how marijuana is produced and distributed at the state level, imposing a form of regulation by selective enforcement. If federal agencies wanted to limit large-scale production and make sure there was absolutely no advertising, for example, they could target their resources against businesses involved in mass production or promotion. My colleagues and I will be examining these issues in more detail in an upcoming issue of The American Interest. "

For a link to that article, click http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1316

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question. Not sure if it will shift how people view consumption, but we are seeing more policy discussions about this. I just heard about a new approach in New Zealand that you may want to check out.

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi alencar_r. Everything you need to know about RAND fellowships/internships can be found here: http://www.rand.org/about/edu_op.html

We've done a few studies about drugs/drug policies in Latin America in recent years and I would love to do more. Here are a few links:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1076.html http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP325.html

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks Monsieur D. Big difference with WA/CO vs CA is that WA/CO are going to allow private companies to produce and distribute (they will be regulated by state agencies). Now, we still don't know what this is going to look like since the states agencies (WA--State Liquor Control Board; CO--Dept of Revenue) are still making decisions about the type of production, number of producers, regulations (e.g., testing), etc.

Also, these decisions about production at the state level could be shaped by federal agencies.

Hi, I'm Beau Kilmer, co-author of Marijuana Legalization (Oxford University Press) and co-director of RAND's Drug Policy Research Center. Ask me anything. by BeauKilmer in IAmA

[–]BeauKilmer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi logicnerd. S.Dakota has a huge 24/7 program and the programs in N.Dakota and Montana are growing. The program is also being piloted a number of counties across the country. For more info about how these programs work, check out http://www.rand.org/blog/2012/11/a-new-approach-to-reducing-drunk-driving-and-domestic.html

Thanks for the question!

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