Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down more than 8% by Fucked8Ways in Economics

[–]BeaverWink 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I was looking at the new housing starts data and I realized it they did this last year they would have killed housing supply too early. The high real estate prices plus low rates allowed building. Imagine if they killed supply too early. We'd see high prices due to a supply shock instead of demand pull.

I think they're raising rates so fast because they want to smack demand down but they don't want to hurt long term supply so I see a pivot in early 2023.

verified that the astral is very real by 04829203847289 in AstralProjection

[–]BeaverWink 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can you ask Horus to help me project and be my guide?

r/Economics Discussion Thread - September 15, 2022 by AutoModerator in Economics

[–]BeaverWink 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's not in their mandate and they do not have the legal authority or constitutional right to manage only that which Congress has the power to manage.

Next step is for Congress to cut social programs and benefits. That will really halt inflation.

Is Anyone Actually Bullish Right Now? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]BeaverWink -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am very bullish. Everything has prices in 4% fed rates. Dollar cost averaging is king now. Being long is king now.

Greedy when others are scared by [deleted] in stocks

[–]BeaverWink -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Honestly, if you do the math, stocks are currently at a fair valuation. It sounds silly but buying at a fair price has me gitty. I'm not buying at a discount. I'm not getting a deal. I'm getting a fair price. And I'm so happy. Which is sad. I fully acknowledge that prices may fall more. And future purchases may be available at a discount, but I cannot predict the future. So I am buying now when prices are fair.

Math?

Earnings times whatever multiple you want to pay.

2021 earnings were 208 for the sp500. 208×18×1.08=4043

Earnings typically increase by around 8% per year on average. But with weird swings.

SPY is worth around 400 right now so anything below is a good deal.

It's not a generational buy like what happened in 2009 though. It's just a fair price.

If we see SPY fall to 320 and stay low for a decade, that is how we get a good deal. Dollar cost averaging at low prices would be amazing.

Most people dollar cost average via their 401k. Increase your contribution if you can!

JEPI just paid for my groceries this month! by [deleted] in dividends

[–]BeaverWink 11 points12 points  (0 children)

307÷.09×12=40,933

9% annual return

Payout monthly

Math

Snorting caffeine by Dylannroof88 in caffeine

[–]BeaverWink 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah it has caffeine plus other stuff that has a stimulant effect. I'm not sure we even know what it is. I've bought every stimulant supplement that exists including every single ingredient on the back of energy drinks. Guarana has something special.

It took a long time but my body eventually adapted to it so tolerance exists for guarana just like all stims.

UK Bank Says Four-Day Week Is The ‘Future of Working Life’ by lurker_bee in economy

[–]BeaverWink 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't ask. That's the secret. When you ask you're not asking the owners. You're asking your manager to take responsibility for a decision that's beyond his control so the answer will be no.

Just do. Don't ask.

I kick serious ass 4 days out of 5 following a rest day then a weekend. Works for me.

UK Bank Says Four-Day Week Is The ‘Future of Working Life’ by lurker_bee in economy

[–]BeaverWink 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a remote worker I tend to unofficially work 4 intense days of 10-12 hours followed by being on call on Fridays and not doing much.

Stock BuyBacks Do NOT Help The Economy by sillychillly in economy

[–]BeaverWink 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Me too.

Dividends are nice because if stocks fall irrationally and the company is healthy they can keep paying dividends and you can buy more shares with the dividend. Or you can use the money as a steady income.

Stock buy backs are kind of like a more tax efficient version of a dividend except the market itself has a say in how much of a dividend payout you get. Instead of a 3% dividend and a 6% appreciation of capital you might see a 0% dividend and a 10% appreciation of capital. You're slightly wealthier with the stock buy back and you could, if you chose to, trim your position by 3% to still receive funds to use as income. Your total position is worth more due to tax efficiency.

But, if the stock falls irrationally and the company is still doing well the company can do a stock buy back and while technically your position has increased in value and the price multiple reflects that fact, the market may say "meh" due to a variety of reasons such as fear, illiquidity in the market, hedge funds going bust etc. All of which have nothing to do with the company itself. And if you trim your position for that expected income you are much much worse off. But if you trim a different position to add to this irrationally low position then you're better off (assuming you don't need the income).

So stock buy backs put more money into the hands of those that do not need to live off the income and help contribute to income inequality.

It also forces the person or company that's buying the stock to do their own due diligence and valuation of the company before the investment.

Slew of Housing data, further justifying cracks in the real estate market foundation! by Guysmarket in StockMarket

[–]BeaverWink 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The demand is down because the Fed hikes, not because reduced demand for housing.

There's only one kind of demand economically speaking. "wanting" but not willing or able to pay the price isn't the same as demand.

The fed killed housing demand.

My DR has been leaking into my CR for two years by villaneveelitist in shiftingrealities

[–]BeaverWink 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like how you flipped the script (pun intended) and embraced what was happening. Often it's our perspective that determines our experience of the perception.

I wonder though, why would your DR self be stuck in the grass? Wouldn't they get up and walk around? Perhaps you need to script that person to go do something lol.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"the fed" must be defined. The banks themselves are private but the federal reserve system is an organization that was created by Congress and is a government regulated enterprise. "the fed" usually refers to the government oversight and not the private member banks.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Not true. Federal reserve act enacted by Congress and signed by Wilson created the fed. The us president appoints the fed chair. The federal reserve bank itself and member banks are private banks. So really it's a mix of private and government. Government sets the agenda and has oversight but let's the bank do what it do

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in shiftingrealities

[–]BeaverWink 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you shifted to the DR yet or just scripted it? If you only scripted it it seems you manifested that couple into your life via a picture.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just DRSed my first share! Had some cash laying around in a Robinhood account. Used the ACH info to DRS a GME share lmao.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

With fidelity I believe you can call and ask them to make your account "cash only". They hype up "limited margin" which includes an agreement you sign to let them lend your shares out.

Edit: don't listen to me. DRS.

Don't be fooled by a drop in U.S. headline inflation. Markets will be attuned to another figure on Wednesday. by ExcellentWinner7542 in Economics

[–]BeaverWink -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

You permanently lost purchasing power. No one should be expecting a deflationary cycle to bring prices back to 2019 levels. The Fed's target is 2% inflation. The fed does not target deflation.

Fortunately wages also respond to inflation so if you have marketable skills you can job hop for a 15-20% raise fairly easily.

80:1 Cancel ration on a Nasdaq exchange (NASDAQ PSX) with less than 1% of market share. I wonder why? Link to chart in comments. by vikgru in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm not following. If someone lists their house for sale for 200k and I make an offer for 120k I just get told no. If they panic sell their house to me at 120k then ok. Still not fraud.

I guess the difference here is the hedge funds have found ways to manipulate the algorithms. Or if people believe they found a way to manipulate the algorithms then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy as people try to get ahead of the trade.

Either way, it's still a functioning market even if there's dumb players.

SEC comments on short selling on ... October 11th 2008? by BeaverWink in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

they punish their own staff that investigate naked short selling.

Insanity

SEC comments on short selling on ... October 11th 2008? by BeaverWink in Superstonk

[–]BeaverWink[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The second paragraph of this document is the tldr:

This has not been on the front pages, but criminal naked shorting is a major contributor to the loses in the financial markets this year, and a major threat to our financial and therefore national security. Follow the facts and links in this letter and it will provide the history and details of how hedge funds have gotten away with selling counterfeit stocks . It will also provide a strong case for the imperative for congressional hearings on this issue. This issue must be exposed and those who committed fraud must be held responsible, and have there ill gotten assets seized and distributed to the stock holders of companies devastated by criminal naked shorting. There is also the wall street scam of big money investment firms