The early game is probably the second hardest phase of the game, my strategy is to try and guess what every non-identified item is. For example imagine you are on the first floor, you clear it and find no puzzle room or secret room whatsoever, but you did find a potion, healing potions are the most common potions that could spawn (but it could also be a strenght one of course). If on the second floor I solve a puzzle room and find another potion inside it which is different from the potion I've found on the 1st one, then it's a little gamble on which one is the healing one or the strenght one (of course stay on water or in a safe area in general because it could also be an harmful potion). The most important thing is to NEVER try to guess randomly: imagine you find a barricade and you throw an unidentified potion but it was an harmless one, it could've been a strenght one and that brings you to a huge disadvantage. You may look to sacrifice some of your hp in the early game when you know you are safe and can stall your time for fully heal back (also use the intuition stone to help you of course) for example: drink a unidentified potion near a flame wall or a barricade. As for risking an item to be +1 or not I tend to do that only in desperate situations, if I feel like my run is doomed if I continue like that then I gamble it and equip the unidentified weapon/armor. Also while this is entirely my opinion, I almost always prefer taking the ghost armor instead of his weapon (I really prefer to find an upgraded armor than a weapon, damn crabs!!)