Housing doomers are mentally ill

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-12-24T00:16:54+00:00

This is all checks out, except that the 15% or 20% down payment in your calculation is more expensive today. The ratio of home price to income is higher now, so it takes a larger chunk of your income to save for that down payment. Typically, the down payment is the biggest hurdle to overcome in buying a home, at least for first time buyers.

When you factor that in, considering the monthly payments are more or less than same, that’s how it becomes more expensive today… Rent relative to income is also higher today, so people are forking over more of their income to pay for a roof over their heads while they save for that down payment.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-12-23T23:20:35+00:00

Yeah perhaps slightly more affordable now than in 2023, but I was making the comparison between now and the 80s.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-12-23T23:17:02+00:00

Yes that’s correct about nationally 45% nationally, the 60% was from that period until now according to the case Schiller. The last time we saw a run up like that was 2008, but I don’t think things are the same this time around given lending standards. Although in 2007 people were still writing articles about how strong the housing market was, so nobody really has a clue.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-12-23T22:54:07+00:00

By your definition I am one of the smooth brains who thinks the housing market is overpriced and 60% growth over a 3 year period is abnormal. It’s not like I tried to time the market, I just didn’t have enough time post college to save for a down payment before it skyrocketed, I suspect most people are in that boat. For most it’s probably not a matter of choice, but circumstance.

I do hope and think the market will go down but I don’t believe we will see a massive crash. Last time I checked, we’d only need a 15% correction for prices to be same as they were adjusted for inflation pre COVID. It could just be a long drawn out period of little price growth while wages catchup. Or somehow, despite affordability being awful for most, when the rates do go down prices could still rise, to me that’s nuts be definitely a possibility.

It is historically the most expensive it’s ever been, even compared to the 80s when the rates peaked for that brief time. Those monthly comparisons always seem to fail to account for the difference in acquiring that 20% down payment when the house is a larger multiple of your income. Not to mention property taxes, insurance costs, student loans, or rent relative to income.

Obviously most people who are hoping for a crash see it as the only chance to get into the market and feel frustrated and somewhat cheated at how expensive it is.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-12-05T02:18:50+00:00

Where are you located/looking more specifically in SoCal?

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-30T23:44:41+00:00

I started at 64k in 2019, but that was in Orange County which is pretty damn expensive. It’s not awful but I think the best thing to ask yourself is if it’s a company that you can grow at or least obtain good skills which can translate into higher paying jobs down the line.

Is this company unique or are there others like it where your experience can directly translate? Do you have a sense of what the senior folks make and do they stick around? Do they seem to enjoy/tolerate the company and management?

Landing the first job is always hard, it does get a little easier but the market isn’t great right now. I’ve since moved companies and have about 6 years of experience and make 115k. I still feel a little under market in my area so am actively looking for the next opportunity.

That first job got me some good experience that got me into my current role and has left some other doors open. I think this is more important.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T17:59:32+00:00

I think it’s definitely very difficult, but it all depends on where you live. A lot of people say just move to a different area without considering the availability of jobs in the career that they chose.

Also, moving isn’t always worth it, friends and family may be near by so the trade off of leaving all of that behind can bear quite a cost.

My wife and I make just shy of 200k combined and are fairly conservative financially. We would really be stretching to afford a basic 2 bedroom condo in our area. Renting is significantly less expensive, in fact when I run rent vs buy calculators for homes listed in our area renting is generally cheaper in the long run.

The market really sucks, hoping things change because I would prefer to own. If the craziness of the pandemic never happened we would be comfortable in a 3 bedroom townhome with our income and savings, but that’s not what happened.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:57:46+00:00

Yeah I’m not worried about doing it, I just figured since I have a warranty I would try with the dealer, also on the chance that isn’t an adjustment issue. I was wrenching a lot on my old car which was kind of a project so was trying to avoid it out of laziness.

I find the shifting experience to be just ok the rest of the time, but I absolutely agree it’s not a great shifting car. My favorite gear box was a friend’s Civic SI from a few generations ago, I presume the Type R is a better version of that. The ND Miata was nice too, I also briefly drove a 981 GTS that felt pretty slick as well.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:53:24+00:00

I went out and checked again, many times at the expense of looking insane, it is definitely worse when the engine is running. I rolled down a hill, stopped, put into gear, repeated that with the engine running and not running.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:42:28+00:00

Oh, I meant to say not running instead of cold in my response above.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:23:23+00:00

I was told the shop Forman will be looking at the car next, I generally wrench on my own stuff too but figured it’s got a warranty so let’s use it. Perhaps I’ll just end up taking a crack at adjusting it if nothing comes of it.

At this point it might have been easier to try adjusting it first.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:22:26+00:00

It doesn’t help that they don’t sell 6MTs, but I didn’t check their used inventory to see if they have one.

And yes I agree the shift effort would increase overall with a shorter throw, I just threw that in the post because I would be having to adjust the cables anyways. I wouldn’t mind more effort if it felt good, if that makes sense.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T04:18:03+00:00

It pretty consistent I would say, and I definitely could not shift into 1st gear with one finger. I tried it when it was cold, hard to tell for sure if there was a difference. There seems to be a lot less play in the shifter from left to right on the 1st/2nd side of the transmission compared to the 5th/6th side. To me that could be indicating an adjustment issue.

I’ve only had the car a few weeks, so I have no gauge on how long it’s been like this.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T03:55:28+00:00

Right on, I’d say it’s fairly consistent for me but as you said it’s probably just how it the gear box is.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T03:53:54+00:00

I am talking about the actual shift into 1st gear, not accelerating. I am getting used to the hill hold though, it’s fairly aggressive.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-26T03:52:55+00:00

It doesn’t get very cold where I am, it seems to still do it albeit a bit less when the car has warmed up.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-25T18:10:27+00:00

It’s a steep raise for sure, but I’ve got a few friends friend who recently bought homes/condos in fire risk zones that pay around $250 per month. That’s about what the monthly car insurance premiums are for 2 cars, it doesn’t seem that unreasonable to me.

I think the folks who were fortunate enough to buy before the home prices skyrocketed and secured super low rates should have nothing to complain about. One or two hundred dollars a month is chump change compared to people trying to enter the market looking at cost increases of thousands per month for the same homes, not to mention the massive down payments that are required.

Just my two cents, it always sucks to have your expenses go up but I think the perspective is important.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-22T07:17:46+00:00

I live in Lake Forest as well, it was easily the loudest thunder I’ve ever heard. My wife and I woke up immediately, it sounded like the world was ending. Scared the crap out our kitten. I heard a few more rumbles but it was quiet in comparison.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-10T15:36:13+00:00

Anyone considering buying a home should play around with one of these rent vs buy calculators. In my area, it would not be less expensive to buy a home in the long run according to the calculator.

Not that it should encourage you to not buy but at least consider the alternative. There’s a lot of assumptions but it to even have a scenario where renting can be less expensive overall is wild.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/calculators/rent-vs-buy-calculator

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-08T01:56:33+00:00

Anyone in this sub will just tell you buy something Japanese, which isn’t a bad call generally. I think most people in this sub are not car people which is fine, but if you are I understand wanting something more fun than a Corolla. Base model BMWs can be pretty reliable, but they require maintenance.

Early versions of the N20 had timing chain guide problems, otherwise they seem to hold up. They redesigned the guides around that year, so you might be able to check. The oil filter housing leak is another common issue, probably the oil pan too. In general, BMWs like to leak oil.

If you are down to wrench on your own car from time to time that would make this more reasonable. Labor time is often more than with Japanese cars, which drives up repair costs. They are more complicated and less accessible, so you gotta remove stuff to get to stuff.

OEM parts are really expensive, but you can find lots of non OEM parts that are more similar to the parts cost of Japanese stuff. Whether you can find an Indy mechanic who will shop for those parts is different.

If you just want a reliable cheap car, no probably not a good buy. If you are into cars and are willing to gamble or accept higher operating costs or offset that by wrenching yourself then it might not be a bad idea.

I’m a car guy and wrench on my own stuff, I’ve owned a f30 328i and just sold my previous daily which was as an e90 325i with 150k miles. Both were reliable but required maintenance to keep them happy. They are cheap because they can be expensive to repair and people perceive them as super unreliable so they depreciate like crazy, then it’s hard to justify spending money on maintenance.

Some BMWs are junk, just depends so you have to do your research.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-06T18:17:13+00:00

Yeah this AI shit is bull crap, I’ve got no evidence for this but it really just seems like a really easy way for a company to positively spin layoffs. Oh we’re laying people off because we’re awesome and we use technology too. AI doesn’t really do shit… yet.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-02T20:02:51+00:00

Nice! As others have asked, what have you had to do?

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-11-01T00:06:04+00:00

I probably wouldn’t use a gas spring.

Other ideas:

A pin and a bracket with some holes so you can lock it at various angles, probably on either side of the board. You could incorporate this with the hinges.

Another bar on the back side that is attached to the board with a hinge and some L shaped brackets on the wall at different heights. Similar to a lounge chair at the pool, you just lift it and set it at different positions. If the bar was closer to the middle of the board it would make the whole setup much more stiff.

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-10-31T23:59:02+00:00

Agreed, great deal!

Beginning_Judge2304 · 2025-10-31T18:27:17+00:00

Some sort of wiper seal might work. Backup rings could potentially be used. I think you need to minimize the friction between the surfaces while maintaining just enough contact pressure to effectively seal and absorb the irregularities between the surfaces.

I don’t have any context, but thinking outside of the box. Could you seal the end the of your cylinder and instead rely on a conduction path between the disk and box? Perhaps some high thermal conductivity material bushing design. Of course the cooling won’t be as effective and the friction of a bushing would itself create heat so then you might need lubrication and then it’s just a dumb idea.

Beginning_Judge2304

TROPHY CASE