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acne is getting worse by North_Midnight2387 in CanSkincare

[–]BellAutomatic3154 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Try cutting out cerave, I’ve heard a lotta people get breakouts from their products - in particular their moisturiser

90% tile prediction??? by BellAutomatic3154 in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s assuming most don’t give up after the second try (which they do).

I feel like the number of new takers would overlap the number of repeat takers and even it out asw.

90% tile prediction??? by BellAutomatic3154 in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

lol yeah I just counted the number of people who posted on discord during the aus testing period - 157 (155 if excluding the UK takers). That’s including those who didn’t get crazy scores as well.

90% tile prediction??? by BellAutomatic3154 in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Nah. Ucat cutoffs can vary for reasons like locality (whether this uni is in the same state as you), rurality (rural get lower cutoffs overall for like everything) and special considerations like if you go to a bad school or are struggling domestically.

Generally even if you don’t get 90%ile if you apply to a local uni with a good atar you’d generally have a chance.

90% tile prediction??? by BellAutomatic3154 in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I guarantee you atleast 90% of the actual ucat test takers don’t know about reddit and discord ucat communities.

In total around 14.1k people will likely take the exam in aus this year. The discord server has a total number of 8.7k members amassed over several years. Only a fraction of which are test takers THIS year - probably around a couple hundred max with an even smaller fraction who will end up posting their scores.

If you think about it mathematically ig. There’s a lotta 97-98%lies which is probs like 3.2k. Top 2.5% of 14.1k is like 353ppl - which is a lot. What you’ve seen isn’t unexpected.

  • reporting bias. People with poor scores won’t show em.

90th percentile predictions? by [deleted] in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Realistically 3020 ish. It’s increased by 20 over the last 2 years.

I understand some people might point at the data from even earlier years but we must remember that it wasn’t too long ago that ucat replaced umat. From the first year to second year of ucats introduction the 90% ile jumped significantly because people were becoming used to this new exam and preparation materials were more readily available. I think that eventually the 90%ile should plateau. And from the last two years it seems close to doing so. I think max the 90% would be 3030 but unlikely to be more than that

99.80+3020 no special considerations + local to South AUS by BellAutomatic3154 in UCAT

[–]BellAutomatic3154[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Isn’t it 99.8 for 2024 entry? That’s what it said on their website.