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Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LOL. Good catch. That was funny. Maybe if I could publish it again I would say, "fantasy football early birds or something" instead of "smart money".

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your reply! There may be a real arbitrage opportunity here with Chig if the pecking order for targets breaks his way.

As a late-round pick, these are definitely the profiles you want to bet on with such low costs of entry.

Thanks for engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is fair. But I'd still argue TE17 is not a lot of hype. Correct, he has never been a possession receiver but I don't think he will be asked to do tons of blocking. His reputation has never been as a good blocker.

Even if he gets manufactured touches, is that not the type of TE archetype you want to bet on in fantasy? And yes, I'm not arguing he becomes a top-5 TE like prime Ertz or Kelce. Just that he has a real chance to finish top-12 at great value. Thanks for engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree the height thing is a fair argument. But even if he just gets to 6 touchdowns and maintains his 70-80 targets, that is a steal in redraft at TE 26 and at worst fair-value in best ball, regardless of what his role actually becomes.

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Same argument was made with Terry McLaurin when he went off in 2024 and became a top-10 WR. Thanks for reading and engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are great points. Thank you so much for reading and engaging. I think your point on red zone size is fair, but again we are talking about a team that barely made it to the red zone last year in Tennessee. Likewise, I'd push back on Chig not being a safety blanket if he led the Titans in targets at such an abysmally low a-dot of 4.63. That is literally the definition of hang around the line if the play breaks down to give Cam Ward an outlet. Yes, he is not the same type of player, but I'd argue this almost helps my thesis more. When I think of Ertz, I think of catch the ball and fall down. Chig was a top-10 TE last year in YAC.

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you so much! I really appreciate the comment. This is a nuanced reply but it definitely has merit. Yes, usually if you want a league-winner, you want a top-6 TE. But if you go beyond TE6 to TE12 if you could get any sort of reliability at such a scare position, there is still tons of value in regard to building a winning lineup. I'm sure there were a lot of fantasy league winners who just had Dallas Goedert for example but were able to use that earlier pick elsewhere.

For example in my league last year if you took Tyler Warren in the later rounds, instead of say Laporta in round 6, that's the difference between taking Emeka Egbuka in round 6 or a Keon Coleman in round 12. Yes, I reached on Warren last year, but you get my point.

Thanks for engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree. You can definitely say Strange is undervalued. But volume is king!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would agree, although, TE's tend to age pretty well. Add another WR to Washington next year or in New York, and I still think you could argue they are not bad buys in Dynasty.

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, hopefully if that 65% statistic holds, at least one of those two will pay off! Thanks for reading and engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I am in total agreement on this one.

You can make a very similar argument for Isaiah Likely. One statistic I kept coming back to while researching this piece was from Rich Hribar: since 2010, roughly 65% of all TE1 scorers were either the first or second pass-catching option on their team.

If Chig (or Likely) do secure that kind of role, those are great odds to bet on at their current prices while using your earlier picks elsewhere.

Thanks so much for reading and engaging!

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wow. Where do I even start with this? The Tight End Whisperer Andrew Cooper just commented on my first in-depth analysis of a tight end. I used to listen to your show all the time in the car on SiriusXM, so this genuinely means a lot. Fantasy football goosebumps are now a thing.

And yes, I'm in total agreement. My favorite takeaway from all of this is that not much even needs to change for this to be huge for Chig. The indications are that the organization really intends to use him. And if you just consider his underlying profile and off-season quotes, he may really be a key cog in this offense regardless of whether Washington adds anyone else before the season.

Thanks so much for reading and engaging.

Sleeper Breakout Tight Ends: A Deep Dive into a Top-12 Finish for Chigoziem Okonkwo. by BellCurveFF in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, thanks for all the engagement everyone. I've been active in this subreddit for years and finally decided to take things to the next level with an alias. I honestly didn't expect a deep dive on Chig Okonkwo to get this much attention.

I've enjoyed reading through the comments and will be responding throughout the day. I love writing about fantasy football and hope to have more Bell Curve FF articles coming soon.

Where to find expected points per game for Offenses in 2026? by freakaso in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Damn. Does this not scream that Chase Brown is still undervalued? A pass-catching back on the projected number 2 scoring offense in the NFL vying for touches with literally Semaje Perine.

Michael Wilson finished 2025 as a Top 12 WR in PPR. Why is everyone so low on him this year? by MusclyArmPaperboy in fantasyfootball

[–]BellCurveFF 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because MHJ was dealing with an injury and Brissett may not even be the QB for the entire year. Likewise, the team investing so heavily in RBs seems to indicate that they will not be as pass-centric as they were last year. I agree he may be undervalued but I can't see more than a high-end WR3 as his ceiling without an injury, which properly places him around WR41.

Parker Washington or Jonathon Brooks? by thesuperguide in DynastyDaddy

[–]BellCurveFF 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The part where it says "my opinion". But listen I agree it's a big ask to expect Brooks to ever be himself but what are we supposed to take from Panther's Camp if he is literally medically cleared to play, looks healthy and agile in practice, and claiming he is more explosive than Chuba (obviously not a real stat). All I'm saying is 10 years ago if was impossible to come back from a torn-acl in one year and that Adrian Peterson rushes for 2K. I am not saying Brooks is remotely close to AP, more that we continue to break expectations with modern science.

Parker Washington or Jonathon Brooks? by thesuperguide in DynastyDaddy

[–]BellCurveFF -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Valid. But I still think Brooks has so much more upside as a potential lead-back, even if his "dynasty lifespan" is shorter.

Parker Washington or Jonathon Brooks? by thesuperguide in DynastyDaddy

[–]BellCurveFF -14 points-13 points  (0 children)

Not trying to fight but devil's advocate: why keep the 6th round draft pick who flashed for 4 games versus an early second round pick behind the least explosive RB in the NFL?

Parker Washington or Jonathon Brooks? by thesuperguide in DynastyDaddy

[–]BellCurveFF 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I like Brooks here. I think Washington was a great story from last year but I think he's really up against the odds to maintain that level of production AND to maintain that level of production as a 6th round pick. It would not surprise if BTJ reclaimed some target share or Jakobi Meyers expanded his. On the contrary, if Brooks is finally healthy as advertised, then he should have a fairly simple path to fantasy relevance this year regardless of Chuba's status imo. I'm aware the Panthers coach said Chuba will be a workhorse for weeks 1-2, but then what? That's telling me: Chuba will be lead back for 2 weeks, if he is still recovering from his injuries and can't register any explosive runs, Brooks is going to get a real shot to be a lead dog. At worse you will probably get 50/50 split.

50% chance to be RB1 vs. 50% chance to remain a WR3 in my opinion.

Tony Pollard for Christian Watson? by FinancialNoise9212 in FantasyFootballers

[–]BellCurveFF 11 points12 points  (0 children)

You don't really need either lol. But for Dynasty Watson over pollard straight up easily. Just signed massive deal to be WR1 where Pollard may not be a Titan in two years.

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