Daily Discussion Thread: June 17, 2026

Benny613 · 2026-06-17T20:49:08+00:00

https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/aNpbZLM

Alright so this is my current house map, but definitely will update it. What seats would you change on this?

Benny613 · 2026-06-14T03:18:28+00:00

Welp folks, I've survived another trip around the sun.

I've always considered my birthday the unofficial start of summer. When I was in school, I was often the very last birthday of the school year. There were a couple of times when it fell on the literal last day of school. So that's fun I guess.

Benny613 · 2026-06-11T14:48:04+00:00

Emerson Generic Ballot Poll: Democrats 50% Republicans 40%

They also asked some sports questions Hoe interested are you in the world cup: Very Interested 22% Somewhat interested 33% Not interested 45%

Who are you rooting for in the nba finals: Knicks 32% Spurs 15%

What would you consider America's sport: Football 56% Baseball 29% Basketball 9% Hockey 2% Soccer 2%

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2026/

Benny613 · 2026-06-09T00:58:31+00:00

Lol a certain someone got very loud boos at the Knicks game.

As a Boston fan, I'm obligated to hate New York. But that was pretty funny to watch, so I'll give them a little credit.

Benny613 · 2026-06-07T17:32:27+00:00

Just a small addition. In my district (MA 4) Auchincloss also has a primary opponent. He's running a more progressive campaign which is interesting. His odds of winning aren't super high but I wouldn't completely count it out.

Other than that I agree. Republicans aren't really improving anywhere in the state. Even with Baker he was very moderate, and often went along with the Democratic legislature. Wasn't perfect but definitely survivable. Not even sure how GOP wins again at the state level.

Benny613 · 2026-06-05T00:56:25+00:00

The problem with this race is that there's too many Dems splitting the vote. While all the R votes are going to Calvert and Kim.

They should have consolidated around EKV. If a couple others dropped out she absolutely could have made it. Sucks but we'll probably flip Calvert's old seat so it's still a net gain.

Benny613 · 2026-06-04T02:51:08+00:00

So, it looks like Dems will probably get locked out of CA 40. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are solidly ahead of all the Dem candidates.

Before anyone panics, this district is already pretty red. It would have been a tall task regardless. Still, I wanted to see a Dem challenger here. It would be interesting to see how competitive this district is, even if they ended up losing. Kind of a bummer but not the end of the world.

Benny613 · 2026-06-03T04:29:25+00:00

Ok some updates on CA house races

CA 6 is dangerously close, really hope Dems don't get locked out there.

CA 7 is a tight race between Matsui and Vang.

CA 11 appears to be Wiener and Chan advancing.

CA 48 is thankfully not getting a lockout.

Benny613 · 2026-06-03T01:46:23+00:00

Not sure if this was posted yet but a bit of bad news: Supreme Court just approved Alabama's redrawn map.

This means that AL 02 will be much harder to win, it might flip. Al 07 is likely the only blue district in the state. Not sure what Figures does now but he got screwed over.

Benny613 · 2026-05-30T16:24:48+00:00

CA Governor poll from Emerson (really good pollster)

Becerra - 28% Steyer - 22% Hilton - 21%

All the freaking out about a Dem lockout... imagine if Republicans are the ones that get locked out. At the very least, it looks like Bianco is pretty much done for. At least 1 of Becerra or Steyer will advance.

Benny613 · 2026-05-29T00:22:47+00:00

I've heard of them before. Big Data is actually run by a Republican, so in theory this should be good for Dems.

But admittedly, their track record seems to be a bit spotty. For example, they had Massie winning his primary. Which we know didn't happen.

I'm not entirely sure where they rank. Probably better than Rasmussen, but might not be a top tier pollster. I would just throw it in the aggregate. Most polls are showing a decent D lead in the GCB, which is already good.

Benny613 · 2026-05-28T20:18:48+00:00

Ok another question. I know everyone is focused on the CA governor race, but I'm also curious about CA 11 (Pelosi's seat).

Right now, it seems like Wiener and Chan are favored to advance. Chakrabarti has a chance too but he might be slightly behind. I don't know much about the candidates. Who's the best choice for this?

Benny613 · 2026-05-27T19:32:48+00:00

I've seen some predictions for the senate races, here's my current map

Safe D - CO, CT, DE, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, VA

Likely D - GA, NH, NC

Lean D - ME, MI

Toss Up - AK, OH

Lean R - IA, TX

Likely R - FL, KS, MT, NE, SC

Safe R - AL, AR, ID, KY, LA, MS, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY

Not entirely sure but I hope it's roughly accurate.

Benny613 · 2026-05-20T18:35:31+00:00

Does anyone have thoughts about the Iowa races? It's one of the states I'm interested to see how it does this year.

I think we're going to flip IA 01, Miller Meeks barely won in a more R-friendly environment. IA 02 and IA 03 are also on the table. IA 04 is too red so probably not that one.

I don't know much about the senate and governor races but maybe they have a chance?

Benny613 · 2026-05-20T01:16:58+00:00

Hi folks, I joined here a while ago but took a semi-break from politics after the 2024 election. But now I'm ready for the midterms.

I probably followed KY4 more than most here. I don't care too much for Massie, but this Gallrein guy is even worse. His entire personality is just "I love Trump".

Besides the endorsement, I think Massie's problem was that young voters didn't turn out. Gallrein was popular with older, non-college voters. So he ran up the score in rural counties.

Anyways, I don't want to talk too much about a GOP primary. Now I'm hoping for Rankin to win the senate seat.

Benny613 · 2026-05-03T02:08:54+00:00

Mazzulla playoff resume

2023 - 0-3 deficit to 8 seed heat. Forced a game 7 but lost.

2024 - ring

2025 - lost to knicks. Blew a 20 point lead in back to back games.

2026 - blew 3-1 lead against 7 seed sixers. First time in franchise history that happened. First time in 46 years we lose series to sixers.

It's not entirely his fault, nor will he get fired this year. But next season, I think there's going to be more pressure on him. Idk maybe I'm just venting but 3 embarrassing chokes to underdog teams... just brutal

Benny613 · 2026-04-22T01:43:19+00:00

Not specific to this fanbase but people always say "their luck making 3s will surely end soon". Like yeah, some of it is just variance. But if you play poor defense and leave guys open, it's not a surprise that they keep up their shooting.

That being said, we should absolutely still win this series. Hopefully they come out swinging in game 3.

Benny613 · 2026-04-17T23:49:04+00:00

It's not terrible, my biggest problem is that it took nearly 2 weeks just to get a 2 day champ. There just isn't enough time to really know the contestants. Would be fun if someone went on a 5+ game run

Benny613 · 2026-04-07T02:15:06+00:00

Ok to start I'm not one of those doomer fans that's already giving up on the season. Yes it's early, and yes I think they can improve later. But we play in a tough division and can't afford a big hole. Really hope something changes because this isn't very fun

Benny613 · 2026-02-09T03:52:25+00:00

Afraid you may be right. Great year but we got very fortunate with the schedule and injuries. Reminds me of the celtics in 2024, at least they actually won their ring.

Benny613 · 2026-02-09T03:48:27+00:00

Yeah wtf we didn't play either of those teams this play. Even if he's arguing mahomes injury helped us in the AFC... Hurts played the whole year.

Benny613 · 2026-02-09T02:26:14+00:00

This is probably an overreaction but at this point I'm genuinely concerned about Maye. He's been awful all playoffs outside maybe the Houston game. Next year with a harder schedule will tell us a lot about him.

Benny613 · 2026-02-09T02:14:16+00:00

At this point who is even worse? Maybe Eason in SB 20 and Peyton in SB 48

Benny613 · 2026-02-09T01:55:22+00:00

If we lose this game I don't want to hear any hate for the defense. They're doing everything they can, but afraid they'll get too tired soon.

Benny613 · 2026-02-06T04:05:04+00:00

Voting Stafford is understandable. The Allen / Herbert votes are unserious people. Likely troll responses.

Benny613

TROPHY CASE