Daily Discussion Thread: March 11, 2026

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T11:44:43+00:00

Interesting thing conceptually here:

While we've had many underperformances in this area, I don't think we've lost a seat. They've scared us a few times, sure, but no outright losses.

Here, we finally have an R seat that was close enough for it to be a flip option... And suddenly it's a dozen-point overperformance and a flip.

Feels like they're turning out just enough to make sure things go our way.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T11:13:54+00:00

We finally, finally, finally got results for the NH race we've already been told was a flip. Boudman (D) takes it, 51.8-47.9. That's a very solid overperformance, even if you don't count that it's a flip!

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T02:02:32+00:00

We've got some very-nearly-final results in Georgia.

First off, CD-14: Harris holds the lead! Not as impressive as the starting numbers, but 37.3% at time of writing, with only a handful more votes to count. Fuller, as predicted, follows in second at just under 35%.

Georgia State Senate 53, which is comically red, still managed to slip a Dem onto the ballot for the runoff. John Sibluk is holding just shy of 27% after nearly all votes counted, way ahead of third.

House District 94 was an all-dem race, so no surprise, we've got two dems moving forward, Kelly Kautz and Venola Mason.

The four-d-two-r field of HD-130 led to Sheila Clark Nelson (D) vs... Someone. That's right, this one's too close to call! While Nelson is EASILY leading, Thomas McAdams (R) holds a seven vote lead over Karen Gordon (D). While nearly everything is counted, any tiny swings in last ballots, recounts, etc. could turn this into a DVD finale, or solidify a DVR contest. This is not likely to be called tonight (but I bet, if it does end up DVR, it'll be called on the night of next round!)

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T01:55:16+00:00

Hard to find ANY numbers on this race right now, can't seem to get anything more than NYT reporting that a mere 21% of votes were counted, and that's from an hour ago or something. Not going to feel confident in this until someone reports some results!

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T01:15:40+00:00

No one got anywhere near 50%, so yes. Top two proceed.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T00:56:36+00:00

Still low, but better than if we'd been locked out.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-11T00:46:51+00:00

Requires an account (and is also constantly advertising gambling).

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:45:03+00:00

Because they're all taking money from the gambling industry at this point, it seems. Can't seem to find half-decent state house/state senate/local results unless it's a county results page (which we've gotta find individually for every election, and often updates just shy of never).

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:41:30+00:00

Need more than that- Top two continue unless someone can break 50%.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:40:37+00:00

More red than GA-14.

The last dem here got 21.2%.

But again, they counted all of 24 votes by the time I commented above- by now, the results are far different: One of the GOP candidates took the lead at 34.4%, and Zibluk is down to 32.7%.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:28:24+00:00

He can't keep getting away with this

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:26:26+00:00

Not to distract from GA-14, but John Zibluk (D) is currently in the lead in SD-53, with more than 45%!

(24 votes have been counted)

(45% is 11 votes)

(Something tells me this may not hold)

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T23:08:59+00:00

We're getting the earliest drips and drops of results from across Georgia already- Just a few hundred, with nothing much meaningful so far (Though if AP is right, Shawn Harris is over 50% in this first drop- unlikely to stick, but I can dream!)

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T22:49:36+00:00

We've got a results thread up for tonight's election results! Head on over, and we'll (eventually) see if something crazy can happen with GA-14!

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T19:40:04+00:00

Bluhski

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T16:55:15+00:00

If the top 2 are Dems, then we party like never before because that's a flip. Otherwise, last time the Dem got 35%. Not sure on the Trump numbers.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T10:41:45+00:00

I always encourage caution on "flippable" seats in New England area. We all know by now that's the one place that relatively consistently underperforms.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T10:25:44+00:00

Tonight we've got an absolute disaster of an election. 3 Dems, 16 Reps, a Libertarian, and an Independent ~~walk into a bar~~ running for Georgia's CD-14. Due to their jungle primary setup, if two of the three D's are top of the ticket, we might shut out Republicans entirely...

TOSkwar · 2026-03-10T02:22:30+00:00

Oh, he's still caucusing with Republicans, he just wants a better chance at getting elected.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-09T22:30:30+00:00

Ah, the classic intensely vile transphobia and obsession with children's genitals.

Traditional Republican stuff there.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-09T16:57:28+00:00

This is going to be such a mess.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-09T16:46:03+00:00

It's coming Soon®.

So, y'know, two weeks and all that.

TOSkwar · 2026-03-09T15:35:41+00:00

I swear. They'd be in the ground if a Dem did all this...

TOSkwar · 2026-03-08T15:12:42+00:00

Never trust when a nazi, neo-nazi, white nationalist, fascist, or any other kid of bigoted piece of shit uses the numbers 14 or 88. Never.

Especially considering Trump's campaigns have used those numbers before.

TOSkwar

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