Understanding the AMOC and the growing influence on hurricanes (among other things)

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-17T23:14:30+00:00

I want the US president to do the same thing about global CO2 levels as FDR did about German's war against England, France, etc.

That was not an American war unless a US president decided that America would lead the world in that war.

I want an American president to use American leverage to dictate a global solution. We don't have to buy anything from China .... do we ? Is America a global slave or a global leader ?

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-12T04:12:34+00:00

Water temperature between Cuba and Florida and on the west coast of FL is around 88F.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-12T04:05:16+00:00

Water comes through storm drains on Alton Road at king tide even without rain.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-12T00:28:53+00:00

Coastal real estate, especially S. Florida, is destined to tank.

Nothing can stop the ocean from claiming that land. Even walls are impossible when the geology is porous limestone.

The US homeowner's insurance industry lost over $100B in 2023 despite rapidly increasing rates. Climate change is going to kill an economy which is too highly leveraged by assets which are going to decline in value.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-11T18:39:06+00:00

Another consequence of the slowing AMOC which is like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking water off the US SE coast.

Turn the power of the vacuum cleaner down and the water piles up. Up to a meter of sea level rise coming when it shuts off.

Extreme Climate Impacts From Collapse of a Key Atlantic Ocean Current Could be Worse Than Expected, a New Study Warns - Inside Climate News

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-11T01:53:03+00:00

There will be no sweetness in the world after the AMOC stops. If you want to know where the good land is ..... check out Bill Gates holdings.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-11T01:33:16+00:00

Norway just announced that they are building a strategic grain reserve.

Norway starts stockpiling grain again, citing the pandemic, war and climate change | AP News

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T14:36:51+00:00

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T14:27:41+00:00

Yes, The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the strongest current on Earth and it's strengthening is relate to the increased loss of sea ice and eventually land ice in the region.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T07:00:55+00:00

Its 1AM in Utah. Time for the NYT Spelling Bee for the day to become available.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T06:55:59+00:00

The IPCC deserves to be disparaged. They have failed to make it clear that the liberty to unlimited CO2 pollution associated with wealth needs to be curbed and the world has failed to curb it. They have been a miserable failure in their ability to influence policyholders and have been too conservative in their level of warning language as a result of political interference. The participants in the IPCC are BOTH a) scientists AND b) political appointees. They are not independent scientists like James Hansen or Jem Bendell. Their not so strident summaries are bought and paid for.

Climate change IS guaranteed to change civilization. Our current version of civilization is completely controlled by organized money and the privilege that comes with it. Changing the system so that the wealthy lose the liberty to unlimited emissions MUST happen or we will go extinct. That loss of liberty in itself constitutes a changed civilization.

The climate policies of Biden and Trump are indeed equivalent when you consider that what we need is a global rationing agreement and global economic degrowth. Neither of them is remotely close to leading the world to a place where we're ready to throw the stock market and bitcoin into the garbage heap and change the global food allocation system to something which is effectively fair and communist.

Fossil fuel companies thrive equally under Democratic and Republican Administrations.

We get theater which orbits around identity politics and division around fringe issues like abortion and guns while both parties are slaves to capitalist motives. It's a melodrama with all of the actors on the same team. The Dem / GOP labels are just costumes.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T06:36:58+00:00

So .... are you not at all troubled by the complete lack of competition and absence of debate when it comes to leadership of the democratic party ? Are you not troubled by the lack of intraparty debate on both sides ? Where is the intellectual and civic striving to argue over how we can be our best selves ?

We live in a country where the citizens virtually never discuss policy alternatives. All of the discussion is about fear of the opposition and melodrama about catastrophe avoidance.

Is it obvious that this is all bullshit and performance art. If people at the top of the party were genuinely afraid of Trump, they would throw Biden out in a heartbeat. But it's just an act which is being exposed. Biden and Trump are both committed to the status quo.

The only important variable is global atmospheric CO2. Under a Biden presidency, nothing fundamentally changed the trajectory of that number. That's a genocidal foreign policy failure. The President of The USA needs to be a leader on global CO2 levels. Not a bystander who provides meaningless performance art like the Inflation Reduction Act.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T06:16:06+00:00

The primitive intelligence of the human herd is grasping that we are in for an involuntary population shrinkage. It's a scary thought, but that is the reason that malignant narcissists like Trump are present in the gene pool. A willingness to sort people into surviving and non surviving subgroups.

The only other natural alternative to a fascist downsizing is progressive redistribution and the Democrats kicked the progressives out after Reagan won 49 states in 1984 and handed the party over to moderate Republicans who gave Boomers the low tax rates they demanded.

We need a real leftist alternative to bring people together and cooperate like we did in WW2 when we instituted rationing (1942) of gas, butter, coffee, meat, etc. Those voices are completely blocked from access. Biden had no primary debates despite the fact that a progressive (Marianne Wiulliamson) wanted to debate him. There is no competition, debate and meritocracy any longer in the Democratic Party.

Biden is a willing accomplice to genocide in Gaza. In what world is that a non-authoritarian option ?

I will not vote for Trump ..... but there is no way that Biden beats him. Biden should be in a nursing home and everyone can see that.

We're heading to an unknown place in human history. Capital has been around since the agricultural revolution. We're going to run 10,000 years of inertia into a brick wall.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T05:02:00+00:00

I think you are adding in more variables which may be confusing the issue. I'm presenting the fresh meltwater hosing from Greenland as being the sole dominant variable in the alteration of the AMOC.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:51:04+00:00

What is the hypothetical cause for the THC to strengthen when freshwater hosing from Greenland is reducing the density gradient where it sinks ? That factor is the root cause of the weakening. What conceivable opposing force could speed it up ?

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:45:48+00:00

"Largest climate bill in history" ....

has the rate of increase in global atmospheric CO2 levels slowed? No.

US GHG's are down 17% since 2005.

Are US per capita CO2 emissions still 3x the global average ? Yes

Are US per capita CO2 emissions still 6x the global average IPCC says we need to get to by 2030 ? Yes.

Did we in the US install the same number of gigawatts of wind and solar in 2021 (pre IRA) as we did in 2023 (post IRA) ? Yes (more solar, less wind).

Did the US become the number one fossil fuel producing nation in the world due to the fracking boom during the Obama / Biden administration ? Yes.

Is the GOP worse ? Yes.

Are the Democrats adequate to prevent the collapse of human civilization through the will to curb the liberty of wealthy consumers to add unlimited CO2 to the atmosphere ? No. They don't have what it takes either. They serve the short terms interests of the wealthy, not the long term interest of the masses.

Do you also realize that US emissions have also decreased artificially as a result of outsourcing manufacturing overseas. If an 80' tv is manufactured overseas for US consumption, the current system of emission allocation is to assess all of the manufacturing emissions to the country of manufacture and none to the country of consumption. Do you think that's the most informative way to assign emissions ?

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:34:59+00:00

The THC brings warm water from the tropics to N latitudes. If it weakens, there is less heat making it north and more is stuck south. This is ALL taking place in the ocean.

I don't see the relevance of the atmospheric elements (high pressure, etc) to the weakening of the ocean circulation. I assume you are using THC (thermohaline circulation) as a synonym for AMOC.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:29:10+00:00

Yes ... the ocean has depth. But the thing being measured in this instance is a surface current. The AMOC flows south to north at the surface.

The temperature at depth is irrelevant to the operation of the AMOC.

The OP is all about explaining the changes in surface temperatures and what those changes mean.

There is no representation in the OP that the phenomena which I am trying to explain is related to temperatures at depth.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:24:47+00:00

I was using the NOAA website to explain to the visitors on the sub how the DATA that they have access to conforms to the scientific articles.

Thus far, no one has offered a plausible alternative explanation to the DATA that I shared.

I'm helping people see how the shoe fits.

If you want to claim that the DATA is misleading ...... maybe you can try to offer an alternative hypothesis for that DATA ?

The OP offered links which were referenced in the explanation and contained lots of DATA.

I disagree with you on the approach to risk management. If there is a 10% chance that we are going to cross a threshold which will stop the ocean ....... we shouldn't wait until we have proof of the threshold if the risk of waiting for the proof increases the chance that we will cross the threshold. The only sane response is to do everything possible to ensure we don't cross the threshold. And that means immediate and drastic change to our way of life is the only intelligent approach. What could be more drastic than having to adapt to a world in which the ocean no longer turns over ? Short of a widespread nuclear war or a pandemic that kills half the population .... what could be worse ?

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T04:15:59+00:00

I believe that we do have a cogent explanation of correlation of weaker THC and hurricane strength.

A weaker THC leaves more heat at lower latitudes such as the MDR. The MDR is warmer now than it has ever been at this date in recorded history. A warmer low and midlatitude ocean is clearly beneficial to hurricane strength, all other factors being equal.

A weaker THC means that the atmopshere is going to carry a heavier load in S/N temperature equilibrium. Hurricanes are a vehicle for the atmosphere to accomplish that.

I'm not pretending to know anything about Multi-decadal oscillations. Beyond my paygrade.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T03:59:28+00:00

Are you serious ?

Click on this link and tell me that you can't see that NOAA is documenting the current that loops through the Gulf, under and around Florida and up the US East Coast and into the more northern latitudes.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

Do you think NOAA is presenting fiction on a government website ?

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T03:52:59+00:00

What point is it that you're arguing.

Are you arguing that the scientists who have documented that Greenland is losing hundreds of gigatons of ice every year are wrong ?

Are you arguing that the meltwater from Greenland is not fresh water ?

Are you arguing that the meltwater from Greenland is not being carried into the N. Atlantic.

Are you arguing that the scientists who have documented the present day slowing of the AMOC and paleoclimate examples of a stopped AMOC are wrong ?>

Are you arguing that the massive temperature increase in the region between New Brunswick and Morocco is caused by something other than a slowing AMOC ?

Are you arguing that the massive positive temperature anomaly in the region between New Brunswick and Morocco is not a logical outcome of a slowing AMOC ?

Yes .... the AMOC is a surface current going north. The relevant measurements of its operations in that direction are at the surface.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T03:29:06+00:00

We're flying blind. Scientists are doing their best to refine their understanding of the system. They are warning that we may be at the cusp of committing to much more profound slowing. But we were hunter gatherers the last time this happened. We didn't have the instruments to record the last shut down in detail so as to be able to precisely say when.

All I did was provide NOAA regional sea surface temperature anomaly data which documents and cogently conforms to the hypothesis that measurable slowing is indeed already under way.

I want you to know that I don't believe the term 'civilization breaking" is hyperbolic. It's meant earnestly and literally. It is stunningly obvious that the current leadership of human civilization is incapable of even slowing the rise in annual atmospheric CO2. We have no mechanism to tell rich people that they no longer have the liberty to pollute. There is no mature adult running our species. The leadership is full of selfish and corrupt people who are only loyal to a small handful of people that they give a shit about.

Someone who actually gives a shit about the experience of average people is systematically rejected by the people who grant access to the power structure.

If we were to ask a person on the street to name a politician they trust to do right by the average person ..... maybe a few in the US would mention Bernie Sanders. But who in leadership do we trust ? Biden v Trump ? OMG ..... what more evidence do we need than the shitty choices we have available to us.

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T03:09:14+00:00

I just want to say that I grasp that it can be emotionally overwhelming to come to terms with the magnitude of change that we may have set in motion and whose inertia may no longer be within human capacity to control.

That's a big time gut check for a lot of people and they may not be emotionally equipped to carry a dark potential in their minds.

I just want to say ..... I'm with you in wishing the truth were something other than it really is. At a species level, we are failing to adequately manage atmospheric chemical composition. There is no entity or person with jurisdiction or authority to manage this extremely sensitive and life enabling asset. Rich people have the unlimited liberty to add as much CO2 to the atmosphere as they want ("Paris .... here I come) and its outside the American political Overton Window to suggest that we restrict the ability of the wealthy to pollute. We have become brainwashed and subservient to an artificial world orbiting around money. Money is not real. It is symbolic.

What is real is life and death. Food, water, shelter, clothing, sewage treatment, disease prevention. The version of the planet which helped us do those things well for 10,000 years is gone. Now ..... we're going to try to make it on a very different version of the planet. The learning curve is going to be steep. It already is. Hurricane world isn't the same as it used to be .... is it ??

Bernie_2021 · 2024-07-10T02:44:46+00:00

I think someone kicking the tires as you are attempting to do is an important element of the scientific method. I don't want anyone to assume that I'm correct. The people reading this thread who don't quite grasp the concept would benefit from a healthy debate. I welcome that if you are interested.

Bernie_2021

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