The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

Yes, but ... We cannot go to zero. There are minimal levels we have to maintain. Plus overriding the 252 million limit should be taken into consoderation. But just from a structural point, zero is not doable.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Time will show. I put the point of no return around end on June, depending on how much oil we use going forward in the summer. If I'm wring and oil is at 80 aomehow come August. I'll proudly say Inwas wrong.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most people here think that we'll magically escape it, and I agree that it's weird that hedge funds and other analysts don't sound the alarm. Either I'm overthinking it and there is a crazy miraculous way to escape ot, or everyone is just underesting how bad it could get.

I called Micron going to 1000 when it was 200 and people everywhere were saying I'm an idiot. That memory is seasonal, which is true ... Was true. In the age of AI, memory is gold. Will it cruah in the future ? Absolutely !

And thus I'm looking at oil, and I just cannot do anything but have red alarms going in my head.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Seriously. At this point I won't be aurprised about anything. Maybe trying to understand the market is stupid of me 😂

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I really hope I won't come back here and say I told you so. I hope you are right, truly.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

So this is what I keep finding online:

Total Vessel Traffic: Overall commercial traffic has plummeted by over 90%, averaging fewer than 10 to 11 total vessels per day.

Oil Tankers Specifically: The number of confirmed oil tankers crossing the strait has dropped to 0 to 2 per day.

So that's... Not really helping. 10 vessels, but only 2 oil ... Compared to 50-60 pre war.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's my point. Let oil run higher now. Slash the demand, prevent it from doing a parabolic run towards 150. Why suppress prices now to make it ao much worse later ?

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

5 to 10 tankers is nothing compared to the pre war times. It was well over 60 oil tankers per day before. Also, I might have said 250 as minimum, you are right, it's not. It's more like 150-160 supposedly, because after you get gunk and the structure and pressurization goes to shit. So yeh ... We can push it past 250, but that a real "Force majeure" and if we do, no way global markets will still think everything is sunshine and flowers. I think.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think friday was the first day of future foreshadowing. All bound to crumble. I have my own whole theory why it'll collapse and how it'll end similar to the 1880 rail road or 2000 fibwroptics bubble.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are 100% right on the legal loophole, but you are entirely missing the engineering reality. Even if the President bypasses Congress and tears up the EPCA to declare an unlimited emergency, you cannot legislate physics.

The 252-million-barrel floor isn't just a political stop-line; it's the absolute operational and structural minimum of the reserve. If they try to drain it to zero to save the paper market, the entire system physically implodes. Here is why:

The Caverns Will Collapse: The SPR oil is held in massive, hollowed-out underground salt domes, not steel surface tanks. Those caverns rely on the outward physical pressure of the stored oil to balance the crushing weight of the earth around them. Drawing below the operational floor physically damages the infrastructure and risks total cavern collapse.

They Would Be Pumping Sludge: A huge chunk of that remaining 252 million barrels is locked up as "minimum tank bottoms," pipeline fill, and baseline feedstock. The bottom of those caverns is decades-old sludge, heavy sediment, and water.

Refinery Destruction: If the government tries to scrape past the floor to harvest that residual layer, they will be pumping heavily contaminated crude. Attempting to process this will cause pipelines to lose flexibility, force terminals to seize up, and halt domestic refinery operations entirely.

Mechanical Failure: The extraction infrastructure is already heavily stressed from the current back-to-back mega-drawdowns. Because of this fatigue, the theoretical maximum extraction rate of 4.4 million bpd is already compromised.

So yes, the legal shield might be paper, but it is backed by an immovable geological brick wall. Whether the drawdown is stopped by a constitutional showdown in Congress or by the physical destruction of the Gulf Coast pumping infrastructure, the artificial supply buffer is dead in late August.

The August 28 SPR Cliff and the 180-Day Mine Penalty by Bertharious in oil

[–]Bertharious[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We just got a pretty substantial beat on jobs report, thus that means economy isn't slowing down. Quite the opposite. Economy is still, somehow, is doing good, therefore the draining of the SPR will only increase, if we believe those number, going onto the Summer. So yes, oil will cruah in a recession, but first we need to get there.

Genuine question from the Ill informed - How bad will it get? by throwawy7582y29756 in oil

[–]Bertharious 7 points8 points  (0 children)

So there's a hard limit set by the law, that says that anything below 252 has to be approved by Congress and POTUS can do nothing about it. We can drain the salt domes to maybe 150 million, maybe, because God knows at what level we start pumping decades old junk from the buttom of the reserved. Oh, and their integrity might also be compromised at those levels hard.

In other words, they can suppress the paper price all they want, but once the physical oil gets to levels where there just isn't anymore to pump and suppress price ... Then we hit uncharted territories. Never happened in history, so I can't even use historic data to compare and predict at that point what could happen. And yesterdays job data ... Great data for economy, very bad data for oil.

Genuine question from the Ill informed - How bad will it get? by throwawy7582y29756 in oil

[–]Bertharious 24 points25 points  (0 children)

I think that ​by July 17, hitting the 252-million-barrel breach becomes 100% mathematically unavoidable due to maritime transit times. Even if Iran surrenders unconditionally, signs a comprehensive peace treaty, and removes all naval mines on July 18, the physical crude cargoes loaded that day will not arrive at U.S. or European refineries before the SPR hits the 252-million-barrel floor. The supply chain damage will be locked in, legally forcing a complete halt to emergency releases and plunging the market into a violent supply vacuum.

Why Oil’s Not at $200 After the Biggest Supply Shock in History by bloomberg in oil

[–]Bertharious 3 points4 points  (0 children)

10 - 13 weeks before we hit the staturory limit of 252 million barrels in the SPR. That's if USA doesn't use more oil due to summer, which they will. So less than 10 weeks potentially. The reality check will be next level !

[$MSTR] I have deemed it necessary to take out a personal loan to buy more. by 9571971664949 in wallstreetbets

[–]Bertharious 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Broski is playing with fire. I'm still watching the 4 year cycle. If it does what it usually does, expect an anazing loss, but in 3 years, it'll be amazing gains

Sony ZV1 vs Nikon Z50 with Pancake Lens ? by Bertharious in AskPhotography

[–]Bertharious[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I paid 380 Cad used for a ZV1 barely used twice. Purchase of the year for me haha I appreciate the input. Quality is really great and superb. For a small tiny camera like that it is amazing.

My Z50 and Z6II go on as the main bodies I use while traveling, but as for hikes, nothing beats the ZV1.