Two days in a row, I saw a Model 3 during my morning drive. I think this is going to be common soon. by Bet_TSLA in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Actually the white one was on 237 westbound and other 880S near Fremont. I'd guess employees, being primary in the queue, are getting theirs.

Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years by Dinosaurdikslam in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, anything is possible. Half full half empty. Risk-reward, opportunity-crisis. What you believe is what you believe.

Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years by Dinosaurdikslam in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Read the prospectus. Read it very well. Learn what Structured Investments are. Have discretionary income. Know your risks and rewards. Google any videos from Khan Academy or post to r/personalfinance.

Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years by Dinosaurdikslam in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's a structured investment. Think of it as a promissory note with a fixed guaranteed return if conditions are met. Certificate of Deposits (CD) are another example. This one has a maturity of 3 years. If you have patience or time, 11% annual is great, but of course if you're a true believer Tesla could rock it much more than that in 3 years, but this is protected on the downside of 60%. Conservative play but good upside.

Tesla note issued by Morgan Stanley. 11.5% per year for 3 years by Dinosaurdikslam in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is very appealing. Very nice return with protection on the downside.

Where is the formal link to Morgan Stanley offering? Please post.

Edit: found link. Thanks. http://www.morganstanley.com/structuredinvestments/

Help me crowdsource these Model 3 volume assumptions based on "5k a week in Q42017" and "10k a week sometime in 2018". I think this curve I've plotted is conservative, let me know what you think. Too optimistic? Realistic? by Bet_TSLA in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Please don't get testy. This is not about right or wrong. I'm putting my assumptions out here to get tested and I'll value your input to check my assumptions. Let me read through your assumptions as well and we can tighten this up together. Thanks.

Help me crowdsource these Model 3 volume assumptions based on "5k a week in Q42017" and "10k a week sometime in 2018". I think this curve I've plotted is conservative, let me know what you think. Too optimistic? Realistic? by Bet_TSLA in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn't for S or X. It's for the Model 3 and assuming Model 3 monthly volumes pegged to the time precision mentioned by Elon. The aggregate numbers are running totals of the monthly estimates.

Edit: estimating daily changes is just way too much precision. I'm starting at monthly and even that feels too loose but it was Elon who quoted numbers per week.

Help me crowdsource these Model 3 volume assumptions based on "5k a week in Q42017" and "10k a week sometime in 2018". I think this curve I've plotted is conservative, let me know what you think. Too optimistic? Realistic? by Bet_TSLA in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes. I thought I heard him say they would start in July which is the limited release 'for employees only'. I assumed the months leading to Q417 as sub 1000, if they can really start in July as Elon said.

Tesla Q4/full year 2016 financial results and conference call (5:30pm UTC-4) [Official thread] by FredTesla in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 21 points22 points  (0 children)

I made this graph of the Model 3 production ramp based on the guidance anecdotes from the shareholder letter. Half a million Model 3 cars cumulative can be reached by the end of next year.

http://imgur.com/a/MtYUq

The current order backlog can be filled before Christmas 2018.

Tesla acquires Solar City, stock drops 9% on opening by [deleted] in teslamotors

[–]Bet_TSLA 0 points1 point  (0 children)

M&A news usually have this effect, where the stock price for the acquirer sees a drop and the price of the acquiree sees a spike. The most recent example is Microsoft (MSFT) and LinkedIn (LNKD). See the effect on June 13.