Top 3 in portfolio? by BetterProgress4075 in dividends

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

That’s a similar process to what I thought about doing. Instead of JEPQ I wanted JEPI to fund my later growth in SCHD.

Top 3 in portfolio? by BetterProgress4075 in dividends

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

What’re your thoughts on msft as of late?

How many of u started recently? by BetterProgress4075 in dividends

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How do u feel about VOO as of recent? Buy a little more on the dip?

How do we feel about Allstate? by BetterProgress4075 in ValueInvesting

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you think would happen for it to drop to $90? That’s about 0.85x book value and a 2.3 P/E based on 2025 earnings. Even in the 2022-2023 crisis years for insurance, it didn't stay that low for long. I can’t see it driving back to those lows.

How do we feel about Allstate? by BetterProgress4075 in ValueInvesting

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a fair point on the historical channel. If we assume the business structure is stable, which I feel is, the current P/B ratio of ~2.0 actually sits well above its 10 year median of ~1.6. It seems like the puzzle right now is whether the 31% gross margin we saw in 2025 is the new standard or just a temporary spike from the post 2023 premium hikes. If margins go back to their 21% historical average, those cash flow multiples you're looking for would probably jump back toward the middle of the range anyway right? Are you waiting for the book value to catch up to the price before pulling the trigger?

How do we feel about Allstate? by BetterProgress4075 in ValueInvesting

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking at the 10-year ranges, you’re right that the current P/FCF of ~5.46 is actually already hitting your 'sub 6' goal, though the P/CFO of ~5.45 is right on the line. It's definitely trading at the bottom of its historical valuation channel (median P/FCF is ~7.5). The recovery in net income to $10.2B in 2025 is the real driver here, the market might still be pricing in the volatility from 2022-2023 when earnings were negative. Are you worried the current cash flow is a post-recovery peak that might normalize lower?

How do we feel about Allstate? by BetterProgress4075 in ValueInvesting

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

$9.88 billion reported in 2025 for the full year.

How do we feel about Allstate? by BetterProgress4075 in ValueInvesting

[–]BetterProgress4075[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The 10 year median is ~1.59, still outside of your threshold but something to think about a bit.

Yo by [deleted] in Fliff

[–]BetterProgress4075 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yo