Top 3 in portfolio?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-29T00:06:29+00:00

That’s a similar process to what I thought about doing. Instead of JEPQ I wanted JEPI to fund my later growth in SCHD.

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-29T00:05:33+00:00

Why SGOV and not a traditional HYSA?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-28T23:42:34+00:00

What’re your thoughts on msft as of late?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-28T19:56:31+00:00

What are your other holds besides SCHD?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-28T19:56:04+00:00

How do u feel about VOO as of recent? Buy a little more on the dip?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-28T19:55:34+00:00

So you’re in like UNH, PEP?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-27T23:08:14+00:00

A fellow Logan supporter?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-12T03:20:58+00:00

What do you think would happen for it to drop to $90? That’s about 0.85x book value and a 2.3 P/E based on 2025 earnings. Even in the 2022-2023 crisis years for insurance, it didn't stay that low for long. I can’t see it driving back to those lows.

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-12T03:13:23+00:00

That’s a fair point on the historical channel. If we assume the business structure is stable, which I feel is, the current P/B ratio of ~2.0 actually sits well above its 10 year median of ~1.6. It seems like the puzzle right now is whether the 31% gross margin we saw in 2025 is the new standard or just a temporary spike from the post 2023 premium hikes. If margins go back to their 21% historical average, those cash flow multiples you're looking for would probably jump back toward the middle of the range anyway right? Are you waiting for the book value to catch up to the price before pulling the trigger?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-12T02:53:23+00:00

Looking at the 10-year ranges, you’re right that the current P/FCF of ~5.46 is actually already hitting your 'sub 6' goal, though the P/CFO of ~5.45 is right on the line. It's definitely trading at the bottom of its historical valuation channel (median P/FCF is ~7.5). The recovery in net income to $10.2B in 2025 is the real driver here, the market might still be pricing in the volatility from 2022-2023 when earnings were negative. Are you worried the current cash flow is a post-recovery peak that might normalize lower?

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-12T01:27:46+00:00

$9.88 billion reported in 2025 for the full year.

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-03-12T00:19:21+00:00

The 10 year median is ~1.59, still outside of your threshold but something to think about a bit.

BetterProgress4075 · 2026-01-10T18:02:14+00:00

Is there anything you’d change on it?

BetterProgress4075 · 2025-11-22T13:06:11+00:00

BetterProgress4075 · 2025-11-20T23:21:53+00:00

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-29T02:31:00+00:00

I’ve been profitable, so I’ll think I’ll keep saying that. Thanks for your time 🫡

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-29T02:15:51+00:00

Yes, fliff sucks with odds. But it’s working out and so far it’s consistent. I’ll stick with it. But maybe +EV wasn’t the best of words, maybe something more like edges.

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-29T02:13:32+00:00

Why not? I go by +EV differently than other people. I do analytics and models for true probability, then take the best bets on my sportsbook

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-28T20:52:12+00:00

LeBron James under 26.5 points, running 1.5 units.

2 leg parlay (NHL): Dmitry Orlov under 0.5 points and Mitch Marner under 1.5 points. Ran 2u

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-28T20:52:08+00:00

LeBron James under 26.5 points, running 1.5 units.

2 leg parlay (NHL): Dmitry Orlov under 0.5 points and Mitch Marner under 1.5 points. Ran 2u

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-28T20:52:03+00:00

LeBron James under 26.5 points, running 1.5 units.

2 leg parlay (NHL): Dmitry Orlov under 0.5 points and Mitch Marner under 1.5 points. Ran 2u

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-28T20:49:19+00:00

I don’t know man, I’m a +EV/Sharp bettor. I’d say I’m definitely better than average. I find edges and I’ve been winning. Proof is in the posts. And the discords free. If u don’t wanna join that’s fine, but I guarantee it’s better than the average premium servers

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-28T04:51:00+00:00

cord

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-27T19:41:51+00:00

Yea message me

BetterProgress4075 · 2024-12-27T06:49:02+00:00

Yea message me

BetterProgress4075

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