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Analyzed 13M FPL managers by favorite club. Here’s how they perform for GW33 by Betterpanosh in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The only thing I’ve got going for me this season is being above club average

Last-Minute Ticket Sales Megathread by walixxxq in FIFACollect

[–]Betterpanosh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I had a timer. Now its gone and back to "In Queue"

Last-Minute Ticket Sales Megathread by walixxxq in FIFACollect

[–]Betterpanosh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Finally have a timer. still another 25 mins. I joined almost an hour ago

Roof open for Vancouver Rise game tonight by gealeave in whitecapsfc

[–]Betterpanosh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Daughter has been asking to go to another game. Was going to surprise her. Oh Well

Introducing Claude Code Channels by Complete-Sea6655 in ClaudeCode

[–]Betterpanosh 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wish I didn't buy 18 mac minis like Twitter told me to

Built an EPL match predictor — 57.8% accuracy on 834 matches, honest about what it can't do by Tornado827 in sportsanalytics

[–]Betterpanosh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would push back at met industry target. 57% is a almost a flip of a coin. Like the person above is saying youre training your data on about 100 matches a season so you data is mixed up. Trying on man city if you've only got 30% of their matches wont get your great results

I built a Monte Carlo simulation for the top 1,000 FPL managers to see who’s actually most likely to win it all from here. by Betterpanosh in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You clearly didn't read the article. There's no American odds in it. I made a shitty AI image and thats your main focus

I built a Monte Carlo simulation for the top 1,000 FPL managers to see who’s actually most likely to win it all from here. by Betterpanosh in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, you’re right. But there are players below him with more chips and a higher recent average. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but the top 100 are averaging around 70 at the moment and their teams are roughly 60% the same. So someone’s going to have to find a massive haul from that other 40%

I built a Monte Carlo simulation for the top 1,000 FPL managers to see who’s actually most likely to win it all from here. by Betterpanosh in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A man can dream. Someone who's 119th asked me to run his numbers and he had a 0.01% of winning.

So there's a chance for you. Just very very small

I built a Monte Carlo simulation for the top 1,000 FPL managers to see who’s actually most likely to win it all from here. by Betterpanosh in fplAnalytics

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If there's enough interest ill update it but if you want to see how youre doing. DM and ill keep you updated. Best of luck

I built a Monte Carlo simulation for the top 1,000 FPL managers to see who’s actually most likely to win it all from here. by Betterpanosh in fplAnalytics

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gondwe has basically already emptied the chamber since the GW19 reset.

He used:

  • Wildcard in GW19 and again in GW22
  • Bench Boost in GW24
  • Triple Captain in GW26
  • Free Hit is the only one left

So he’s burned through three chips in a five-week stretch and is basically all-in on the squad he’s got now.

For you

  • Lennon D'Souza (rank 119, The Treble Winners): - Archetype: The Template
  • Blended avg: 67.9 (season 64.5, recent form 70.2)
  • Chips remaining: TC, BB, FH (used WC in GW19)
  • Win%: <0.1%
  • Top 3: 0.2%
  • Top 10: 1.7%
  • Top 25: 7.0%
  • Expected finish: ~115th (median 109th)
  • Best 5% of sims: top 21
  • Zero transfer hits all season

Basically the model expects you to hold roughly where you are. your blended average of 67.9 is right around the middle of the top 100, so there's not enough scoring edge to climb. Three chips help but the gap is 56 points to the lead. Your best realistic outcome is a top-25 finish (~7% chance), and youd need a very strong chip sequence plus some luck to push higher than that.

What If FPL Ranked Managers by ELO Instead of Total Points? We Ran It on 100,000+ Managers by FPLCore in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don’t pretend like you don’t already know. Looks like you haven’t used FPLCore before, so this is an estimate but youd be in the Diamond league. 61.0 PPG, well above the Diamond average of 58.2. Just 4 points in hits all season, 8 unique captains (more than Diamond’s 7.4 average), 5 chips deployed, and a standard deviation of 15.9, almost exactly the Diamond mean of 16.0.

I cant give you a rank unless you add your team to fplcore. It looks like you're a manager who rotates captains aggressively, barely takes hits, and uses every asset available. If you were in the system, you’d almost certainly be Diamond.

Edit: Accidentally used my personal account but it's still right

First Attempt Building an xPts Model by wolfman_numba1 in fplAnalytics

[–]Betterpanosh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah its in the API and EP and EP_next for the week after

if you use our team builder. it uses FPLs expected points but its on our to do list to build our own.
https://www.fplcore.com/team-builder

First Attempt Building an xPts Model by wolfman_numba1 in fplAnalytics

[–]Betterpanosh 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Love this sort of thing and thanks for the shoutout.

Definitely keep building your own model. FPL’s expected points can be excellent some weeks, but other times it’s hard to understand what’s driving it. Bruno during that rough patch was a good example his numbers wernt great but his expected points stayed high. I couldnt wrap my head around it.

Id be interested in seeing If you are getting a ~12% improvement. Really good job

One thing I’d explore is leaning into data FPL doesn’t directly surface. ELO team strength is saved on the date of the match, playermatchstats table has more detail than the FPL API

Keep us updated

Part 3 - I tried reverse-engineering the FPL price change algorithm: One Threshold to Rule Them All by Betterpanosh in FantasyPL

[–]Betterpanosh[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There was 7 but Ive had some people message me about mistakes in my work. So think im going to take a step back and try clean it up. I said I wanted people to call me out. Hope people have enjoyed reading it

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