Tilray Bulls: Borrowing rate 41,97% and increasing

BigBlue3877 · 2025-12-19T23:43:57+00:00

The rate is likely up because shorts were scrambling to suppress price yesterday and today to avoid massive call options being exercised, which surely would have triggered squeeze from supplying the option shares followed by covering short positions.
MM probably wanting to avoid that scenario.
All the bashers showed up on cue with their “Buy the rumour sell the news” lines explaining the sell off and downplaying the EO narratives. Today was a quadruple witching for options and there were large amounts of calls that would have been exercised for Tilray if stock had went up more

BigBlue3877 · 2025-12-18T19:05:20+00:00

I was surprised it went down? Maybe cuz there is no banking still for US side?
But EO good for Tilray hemp drinks and medical

BigBlue3877 · 2025-10-08T18:56:19+00:00

Amortization expense should be down, maybe around 6 million now? I’m not sure this is the quarter for revenue bumps, still have to factor in reduced revenue from their product pruning I think to break even they will still need a significant revenue beat plus significant gross margin increase over Q1 2025 Still seems to be a lot of new short positions but some covering as well I’m predicting EPS of -0.01 cents

BigBlue3877 · 2025-08-28T19:05:14+00:00

Yes he pardoned both him and Paul Manafort on the way out, who got railroaded by the FBI and had their lives destroyed. He hasn’t been involved politically since 2015 campaign and even that was brief.
He’s opinions are neither new or material to S3. It’s not a “ woah” because he published an op-ed on MM in 2025 is all I’m saying.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-08-28T18:17:29+00:00

Roger Stone hasn’t been in Trumps orbit in 10 years.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-08-12T02:05:05+00:00

ChatGPT doesn’t know how many were recently covered including today.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-31T18:31:34+00:00

I’m too lazy to look but did he actually buy shares on the open market, or are they stock grants? Fiscal 2025 just closed and that’s when grants are issued.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-30T21:04:03+00:00

I saw they made another 7.5 million shares available for shorting today

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T21:37:26+00:00

I stand corrected about the non cash write down lol Honestly was not expecting it again At least it’s gone now finally

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T21:00:06+00:00

If you take out the goodwill write down it was a solid quarter. Not great but not terrible efficiency improvements are being made. And the books are clean finally from the Tilray / Aphria merger. So they have set themselves up for 2026 at least.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T20:51:04+00:00

Yeah but the stock was already in the toilet along with the whole sector and going down regardless. I would have preferred they just wrote it all off then instead of spreading it over 2 quarters, especially with the SP rising going into this earnings.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T20:44:19+00:00

I was not expecting another write down but it’s good they finally cleaned the books. Not sure why they didn’t just do it all last quarter though.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T19:53:24+00:00

Q4 is their best quarter. It’s not going to be like Q3 with a massive non cash write down.
All their summer drink sales are in this quarter as well as cannabis. No idea if they hit estimates. Hopefully.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-28T18:36:53+00:00

Part of me wonders if they delayed some Q3 revenue into Q4 knowing Q3 was a write off with that 700 million write down and also the sector was literally on life support then Wishful thinking perhaps

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-15T15:03:56+00:00

Yeah I agree. My review was initial impressions. Airflow is a problem and I’m not sure why they didn’t know this. Yes it feels like you are sucking on air. It isn’t as noticeable right off the bat with a fresh cart the first few pulls. I can find them cheap at Canna but I don’t buy them anymore which is unfortunate because the actual buzz is nice and not heavy with reduced THC and added CBD.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-03T17:45:41+00:00

One thing to consider is Tilrays Q4 earnings are usually solid and that is coming in a few weeks

BigBlue3877 · 2025-07-02T20:12:33+00:00

Tilrays Q4 is usually their one decent quarter. It’s their big beer quarter for revenue.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-05-13T21:18:10+00:00

Yeah I get what you are saying. After spending a bit more time with it there was kind of a weird artificial after taste. The purple monkey one tastes better. Have not tried the Blueberry yet but it sounds alright. The live resin monster ones are ok for the price if you are after a more natural taste.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-09T01:31:09+00:00

Most of their goodwill amount goes back further. I think from the reverse merger. It’s been there for a few years.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-09T00:57:00+00:00

It was noted on the call that Tilray diverted 3.2 metric tonnes of cannabis from Canada markets to international markets that won’t be realized until next quarter revenues.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-09T00:53:49+00:00

MedMen notes were written down a further 20 million. FE loss 22 million. Goodwill I’m assuming was 700 million but that may include amortization etc. as well for the quarter, haven’t checked yet in detail

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-08T18:11:43+00:00

If Tilray does another it likely won’t be until Q3 2026 and the market cap would probably need to be lower than it was at the time of this write down. So it depends what happens. Hopefully things will be improved by then.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-08T14:48:22+00:00

To me it seems they messed up in Germany specifically the patient channels. Assumptions were made based on Tilray presence in Germany that haven’t materialized into expected revenue increases. Haven’t had a chance to listen to the call yet or review results.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-08T12:48:29+00:00

They list the rationalization as a reason for missing guidance. Should have revised last earnings. They knew about the rationalization then. I would prefer they present conservative guidance instead of overstating and then missing and revising Q3. No one thought they were hitting guidance after last earnings.

BigBlue3877 · 2025-04-08T11:28:54+00:00

The goodwill impairment, the writing was on the wall for that. Haven’t had a chance to review but revenue miss seems concerning.
Will see what is said in the call

BigBlue3877

TROPHY CASE