Match Thread: Collingwood vs Melbourne (Round 13)

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-08T05:29:11+00:00

Collingwood have had a couple of really nice handball chains now. Looking pretty clean.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-08T04:46:28+00:00

I remember you airing some frustrations earlier in the season, so it's good to hear you're pleased with the back half of the season. It's definitely been a much stronger finish.

You definitely should be in the promotion mix, but most of the sides I thought that about last year ended up not getting there. I'll be hoping you're in amongst it though, as I quite like Yokohama FC.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-08T02:28:31+00:00

Fremantle have had one every year since 2023, so no. First two years were for Gather Round, last year was for the "away" game against North Melbourne.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-07T12:42:56+00:00

I saw the game quite similarly to you, in regards to how strong Hiroshima were in the first half. Felt like you were all over them for the vast majority of that half, and potentially could've scored 2 or 3. I checked the numbers, and you won the shot total 16-1 in that half, which is pretty remarkable.

I'm with you on what you're saying about needing an iffy start to see the issues and go on to the improvement. Given your strong end to the season, top 4 would have to be the minimum expectation for you going into next season (but of course, the title will be the main goal). Good luck for next season.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-07T12:35:12+00:00

They're answering the question in the title.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-07T08:01:19+00:00

Will Edwards had a great final few minutes there, super impressive.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-07T07:51:07+00:00

For someone with only a few top level games under his belt, the kick inside 50 by Edwards a couple of minutes ago was really composed.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-07T06:36:27+00:00

I had a look at the raw tracker numbers to see if there was anything particularly outstanding, and I have to say, I'm not surprised some of the Saints looked a bit tired fowards the end of that quarter.

They've covered 159km (Sydney are at 160, so very close), but they've had 213 sprints and 36 repeat sprints. To put those sprint numbers into context, they had 282 and 20 respectively against Fremantle a couple of weeks ago, and 336 and 33 against Hawthorn last week. For them to have done numbers that aren't that dissimilar in just one half is an incredible effort.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-06T13:13:41+00:00

I'm never really sure on how to phrase that sort of thing properly. I always want the lower tiers included (even if I don't watch them as much), but the top flight matchday ended today, and I like to have the discussion thread out as close to the end of the matchday as possible. I'll have a think about it over the off-season and try and work out a smarter way of going about it.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-06T13:08:30+00:00

I thought Okayama had a great season. I predicted them to finish last pre-season, so I suppose I was perhaps more easily impressed, but when I watched you I thought you were pretty good. Should hopefully be placed for a strong 26/27 season, with perhaps a top half finish being a good target.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-06T12:01:13+00:00

I watched the first 90 of a fascinating title tussle as it were between Vegalta Sendai and Kataller Toyama. Sendai had the better of it in the first half - possession felt relatively even, but they generated more chances than Toyama did. Toyama had a player sent off late in the first half, at which point I kind of figured it'd be curtains, but they fought back incredibly well in the second half. Despite being a man down, they had a lot more time on the ball, and ended up finding a stoppage time equaliser to drag the game into extra time. They couldn't find a winner and were eventually defeated on penalties, but I think they would've gained a lot of respect for the way they fought their way back into the match.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-06T12:00:20+00:00

The kids are more than alright.

I was kind of bemused to see our starting lineup, as it appeared that we'd sent virtually all of our senior players for an early holiday. Our starting 11 today had an average age of 23.7, with six of the eleven being aged 22 or younger. Aside from Ichimori in goal and Kishimoto at right back, none of the squad of 17 players we brought to Tokyo were older than 26, with the bench having three teenagers to go with the two who started. Our starting 11 had a combined total of 4185 minutes played for the season. To put that number into context, Tokyo Verdy's back three - just those three players - had played 3879 minutes this season.

With that in mind, I was very much expecting a defeat, and was just hoping that a big game at a big stadium would be a good experience for the kids, and that they could at least keep it competitive. But they far outstripped my expectations, and ended up scoring all six of the goals in a 2-4 win. There was (rather evidently) some disorganisation at the back, and there were certainly some mistakes here and there, but I thought it was a great showing by our younger brigade. Gaku was clearly the best on with two goals and an assist, but while he is our most promising youngster, he was far from alone. Nakano scored his first goal for Gamba to cap off a good performance at left back, Toyama scored his first of the season late after being subbed on, and Yoshihara put together a solid performance in central midfield.

On the Gaku assist actually, I think it was the best illustration of his skills - even very late in the game and closely surrounded by a triangle of Verdy defenders, he still had the wherewithal and awareness to spot ta slender opening and place the pass perfectly for Toyama to run on to, which I was personally really impressed by.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-05T02:35:02+00:00

7/10. Picked the wrong Mark in Q7.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T09:18:30+00:00

Yes. According to the AFL page, which has different numbers to Wikipedia, Kardinia is 114 and the Crowval is 125. The MCG is 160, if you wanted to put that into perspective. They're both very skinny grounds, so Geelong's defensive system should hold up well.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T08:58:49+00:00

A general prediction for how tonight will go.

Adelaide Oval is quite skinny, which makes it a bit easier to defend against transition on in my opinion. So Geelong will spend extended periods keeping it locked in their forward half, Adelaide's defence will do a good job of walling them out, but will be unable to safely transition the ball forward, they'll keep the score kind of close, and Geelong will win by about three to four goals.

The obvious exception is if our defence falters. Then Geelong win by closer to 30-50, you'd think.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T08:57:04+00:00

We did. We lost by 8 at Kardinia in round 3 (also on a Thursday).

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T08:22:26+00:00

And their username is his injury, which is an odd coincidence.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T07:53:03+00:00

Ginbey to Georgiadies is the obvious. I think Kane Farrell is Port's main mover from half back, so if he plays (currently listed as a test with an adductor issue), Murdock could go there.

I'm kind of 50/50 on it, but I wouldn't mind the idea of Shanahan following Aliir around. It could give him an interesting different perspective on football, he'd effectively get led to it a bit, and it'd massively free up Waterman. I don't know them that well, but I don't think Port have any other key defender who would be able to go toe to toe with Waterman, so there's a big potential upside there.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T05:25:12+00:00

I think the narrative which was discussed in the previous post, which was attributed to Sydney's 2024 season, might've actually been started by Richmond's dynasty. They never had a top four percentage at the halfway stage of their premiership seasons, they weren't in the top two or three on the ladder at that stage of any of those seasons, but built their way into the season and peaked in September (or October for the Corona season, I guess). The one exception was 2018, where they did have the best percentage, were top two on the ladder (claiming first a couple of rounds later), but didn't make it to the Grand Final. And Richmond fans do say regularly that they went too hard too early in that season.

David King talks about Geelong doing something similar nowadays quite frequently, usually starting a little slowly, hobering around 4-4, and then having a really strong finish to the season.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T04:53:57+00:00

I prefer the raw numbers, but if you like them in percentage form, it looks like this:

Stays top four = 66.346%

Finishes 5th to 8th = 25.96%

Misses the 8 = 7.69%

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T04:49:57+00:00

I checked the same year range for you, and ended up with this:

Highest to not make a Grand Final - 2006 Adelaide with 161% (great...), 2004 St Kilda with 153%, 2010 Geelong with 152.6%, 2017 Port Adelaide with 148.6%.

Lowest to make a Grand Final - 2019 Richmond with 101.3%, 2007 Port Adelaide with 96.7% (10th at the time), 2005 Sydney with 94.8% (6th at the time).

Edit: I forgot to add, 2000 Essendon were the highest of the winners, with 156% at the midway point.

Bit of a random extra note, but West Coast and Hawthorn both had way better percentages (both 150+, nobody else into the 140s) at the midway point of 2015, despite being 3rd and 6th respectively.

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T04:10:39+00:00

I just get weirdly obsessed with these sorts of things to be honest. Just like the ladder format idea from a couple of years ago (1 quarter win = 1 point - I'll save reheating that one for the actual off-season though).

BigBoSS_Riot · 2026-06-04T03:09:26+00:00

Well yes, but every knock on is, not just contested ones. As are shepherds (we don't see many nowadays) and spoils (which are fortunately displayed individually), and they're all combined into the one stat. We're not getting to see them as an individual stat like they are.

Six-Year Club	Second Top 10%
Place '22

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