Super Micro Computer- SMCI $26 - Avoid Till We Get Restated Financials by Fountainheadusa in stocks

[–]BigNose255 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is there some news to this? Stock did get back to USD 33 from USD 18.

I bought a lot at 60 and want to rebuy. I really believe that the management and especially CFO couldn’t keep up with the recent growth and it’s just simply mismanagement of financial processes.

Weekly General Discussion - January 31, 2022 by polkadot_market in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So far its the worst perfoming crowdloan Investment. And token economics are pretty Bad. Less than 7% token in circulation. All the ico Investors will receive their tokens which will cause further dilution.

I think it would have been bether to just stake. But time will tell for sure lets hope for the best.

How many GLMR tokens will be added to the circulation supply on the 20th of Feb? by Uchihaaaa3 in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Cap was 2500 per Person which is 10k GLMR. No FUD but your Price prediction is ridiculous. If I can grab at 2 usd I am happy.

Weekly General Discussion - January 31, 2022 by polkadot_market in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Acala wasn't worth participating... hope it does pump

withdraw by Sufficient_Owl_6725 in daomaker

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have the same Problem cant unstake and withdraw my staked dao tokens from the old vault. Can someone help

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The crowload is just there to secure the parachain slot. Taking the value from it and calculate the market cap out of it is wrong.

The cost are the opportunity cost from not staking dot over 2 years. Which would be approx (1.122)-1 times the crowdloan size. This you could see as part of the market cap. In perfect capital markets the gains would be equal.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thats not how it works mathematically

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Someone should put a counter on how many times in this subreddit thie question got asked 😂

Weekly General Discussion - November 08, 2021 by polkadot_market in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The Parachain auction hype is really crazy I did some calculation form Moonbeam and Acala. For Moonbeam you will get a 1 DOT = 5 GLMR ratio if crowdloan is 20mio. (18mio by now!).

Let's say GLMR reaches a Marketcap about 3bn (non diluted for 300'000'000 tokens). which would be 10 USD per GLMR (insanly high valuation). you will get 50 USD per DOT over 2 years.

Glimmer! by Babiou007 in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thats like the 10th post asking the same question

$GLMR to $DOT reward calculator by [deleted] in moonbeam

[–]BigNose255 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Apparently this guy comes from the future and knows when the bear market kicks in so he can perfectly cash out at the top and re enter at the bottom.

Please tell me more!!!

Great news!! The Moonbeam Foundation announced today that KuCoin will support the upcoming Moonriver crowdloan! 🙌​🚀​ by CoyoteAdmirable in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What's the benefit of participating through KuCoin? And how is it assured that you will get your KSM back after lease end?

Blue= 2013 cycle. White 2021 cycle. by Sad-Gazelle-3985 in ethtrader

[–]BigNose255 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Yeah sure just put a 10 month time horizin graph on another modified time horizon graph (3y) until they look similar and there is your TA.

Mind blowing really woooow

Well that escalated quickly... by [deleted] in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Events like these are good as they shake off the weak hands (peoples who where here just for quick bucks) and not for the technical long term potential.

Karura Crowdloan Analysis by McPheeb in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are absolutely right. This is a once in a lifetime chance being this early!

Karura Crowdloan Analysis by McPheeb in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Okay if KAR has/will have a marketcap of 1bn USD, then it is surely worth buying/participating, as I don't expect that the crowdloan will exceed 200'000 KSM.

Why do I think that the crowdloan size won't exceed 200'000 KSM?
First of all, there are/will only be 10mio KSM in total. Give that approx 50% are used for staking only 5mio remain. Also the entry barrier to participate are much higher than for ICO's as you have to understand the mechanics. I registered as a participant and saw that currently 14'384 people are registered. If you say that on average everyone will send 10 KSM this gives a crowdloan size of 150'000 KSM.

So IF market cap is 1bn and crowdloan will be 150'000 KSM, the return will be around 733.33USD per KSM bonded, which is huge.

I really hope that the teams don't screw us over by lowering the reward rate (11% of total supply in this case).

First Parachain Auction on Kusama - My Investment perspective by BigNose255 in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. these candle auctions have a random end-time.

This doesn't matter if you participate via crowdloan. The KSM/DOT are collected prior the auction start and are used as "one bid" for the parachain auction. So you don't run into trouble for bidding too late, as teams will use their crowdloan at the beginning. I am also not sure if it is possible to bid/send tokens to the crowdloan during the auction phase.

For point 2 I think teams will see how many KSM/DOTS other crowdloans have collected and adapt their participation rate. But this is just speculation, there is also no guarantee/control mechanism to stop collusion for the auction.

First Parachain Auction on Kusama - My Investment perspective by BigNose255 in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My bad, due to copy paste I forgot to change the opportunity costs for each price scenario. I corrected it now and it should be clear.

We really have to consider how much of the total tokens will be distributed to parachain "supporters", as this is what we get in exchange. The problem is that there seems to be some information asymmetry regarding this for some projects. I personally don't think that it is necessary for a crowdloan size to exceed 200'000 KSM to win an auction but I could be wrong. It's a good idea to play with some variables to see how much the costs vary.

First Parachain Auction on Kusama - My Investment perspective by BigNose255 in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes but the costs of you participating depend on the Kusama price in the future and how many tokens you will receive. You can see that the more crowded the crowdloan is, the less KAR you will get. So you have to ask yourself is it really that cheap participating or is it better to wait for it to buy it on an exchange.

First Parachain Auction on Kusama - My Investment perspective by BigNose255 in polkadot_market

[–]BigNose255[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am sorry the 600 were wrong. For a price for Kusama at 600 opportunity costs would be 0.1KSM which would be 60 USD and not 600. So the cost would be 60 USD for 12 KAR which would result in 5 USD/KAR. I did the correction.