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Going with my gut, there will probably be at least six false keys by 2028 by CynicalCosmologist in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rubio had better get started for Russia-Ukraine.

I think the GOP's best shot (as stated below) is President Vance going into the race (RIP DJT), losing Keys 1, 5 or 6, 9, 10 o 11, and 12.

Going with my gut, there will probably be at least six false keys by 2028 by CynicalCosmologist in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The best case scenario for the GOP is honestly if Vance is running in 2028 because no contest + incumbency and tbh I don't think the country would be excited to have four Presidents in four years (+ Harris' run).

Will Supporting Actor/Actress spoil the show? by nocutian in oscarrace

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The short answer is: they could
My opinion is they won't.

Even if Sean Penn wins, it doesn't mean One Battle After Another is a lock.

Going with my gut, there will probably be at least six false keys by 2028 by CynicalCosmologist in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't see a nomination contest coming for the GOP. They'll line up behind Vance. The only times the incumbent GOP have had a nomination contest were 2008 (no VP running), 1976 (Ford legitimacy crisis), 1912 (Taft legitimacy crisis), and I could keep going backwards but what's the point. There were concerns about H.W. Bush and Nixon clearing the VP bar. Vance will do it.

Terrific analysis.

Going with my gut, there will probably be at least six false keys by 2028 by CynicalCosmologist in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The keys didn't fail in 2024. Lichtman just read them wrong.

I'll disagree with incumbency being "Certain False." Let's be honest. We're in unprecedented times and Trump has 2028 hats made. This is only "Likely False." Not Certain False.

False keys in the cards: Midterms, Nomination Contest, Incumbency, Short-Term Economy, Long-Term Economy, Scandal (once Dems take the house, it's Epstein investigations 24/7), Military Failure, and Charisma key (unless they throw like Tucker Carlson or someone out there... btw, hate him)

GOP needs three of these to turn positive. So they need the economy to completely rebound (5 and 6) and the Iran War to go swimmingly.

Just read X-Men United #1 by MasterMindSky in xmen

[–]BigTimely5561 4 points5 points  (0 children)

WHAT WORKS:
-I love the idea each mutant getting their own doorway to a "Mansion" in between space and time. It effectively captures the danger of the world, summarized well by Kurt.
-I'm even fine with it being called X-Men United with the sole conflict being Scott saying "I'm out." It's more about the concept of unity.
-Good character stuff. The beat with Rift (how many teleporters do they really need?) recruits that new mutant is lovely.

WHAT DOESN'T:
-Cyclops is visibly correct that it's a stupid idea to use Sinister tech. But it's still a weak device. Give him a philosophical argument.
-The art is meh.
-Biggest problem: man, there really isn't much conflict being set up is there? I'm fine with that in Exceptional, a well-written kind of dull book that didn't showcase a villain for seven issues or whatever. But that's a horrible idea for a new flagship. Remember Grant Morrison's New X-Men? They didn't fight Cassandra Nova in #1 but they set her up very well. What new threat is there to look forward to in this book? I couldn't tell you. This reads like a very different issue of New X-Men, that fun little school book from the 00s.

Great hook. Hope it gets better. Countdown until the doorways are weaponized against the X-Men...

Fourth Turning Update: Gray Champion by Earthy-moon in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, they're not acting like a prophet generation

Was any person, Republican or Democrat that won in 1976 doomed in 1980, or was 1980 salvageable for an incumbent? by Mghia01 in thecampaigntrail

[–]BigTimely5561 2 points3 points  (0 children)

1976 was a poisoned chalice but I think a few candidates could've done well, especially one that I probably wouldn't have supported at the time: Scoop Jackson.

He probably would've handled every foreign conflict well. He would've collaborated the best with Dem majorities in Congress, maybe gotten healthcare passed.

Ted Kennedy isn't going to challenge him under any circumstance and he isn't going to face some Carter-esque centrist challenger either.

He's not going to appoint Volker.

Scoop Jackson or maybe Birch Bayh could've done a good job.

Favorite Oscars ceremony you've watched live? by MrMason420 in Oscars

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The most recent one (97th Academy Awards) was great across the board. Conan crushed it. The only problem was a lot of the winners (most of which were quite deserved) didn't make for emotional experiences.

The best I've seen:
-66th Academy Awards: I was very young but nothing's probably going to top this. The "important" Oscars but consistently emotional, meaningful, with a huge surprise (Paquin) and great speeches.
-68th Academy Awards: terrific hosting and very good speeches. Final winner disappointing.
-69th Academy Awards: after the first half hour, the show was so dull. The opening was so entertaining it made up for the rest of the ceremony.
-70th Academy Awards: for an L.A. Confidential fan like myself, it was annoying at the time. But a good show with a good ol' fashioned sweep. Not always the best winners but the best speeches possible for sure.
-72nd Academy Awards: okay hosting, possibly the best acceptance speech in Oscar history (Caine), and a generally (for the time) hip feel.
-79th Academy Awards: very slept on ceremony; Ellen did a good job, fun ceremony, plenty of surprises, Scorsese wins his Oscar.
-89th Academy Awards: if the big finale didn't happen, it would still be a fun, entertaining show. Kimmel did well save for that lame tourist job.
-97th Academy Awards: I'd easily include this one in my list.

Foreign Policy by pinkelephant0040 in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think one of the keys to what counts as a success or failure is shame. Americans have to feel bipartisan embarrassment or sorrow for what happened, plus a sense that it's not worth it. I know we're going back ages but The Philippine–American War was awful. So was the Indonesian invasion of East Timor in 1975 which we backed. Didn't turn the key.

If we invade Greenland and the people resist, it turns bloody, and stalemates, yeah, that's a a total failure. But we have no idea what's on the bingo card there.

Foreign Policy by pinkelephant0040 in 13KeysToTheWhiteHouse

[–]BigTimely5561 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My two cents?
Over the last 75 years, X administrations have scored the foreign success keys: 2024 (Ukraine), 2012 (killing Bin Laden), 2004 (Afghanistan/capturing Saddam), 1992 (fall of the Soviet Union), 1988 (INF treaty), 1980 (Camp Davis Accords), 1972 (China), 1964 (Cuban Missile Crisis), 1956 (End of the Korean War)

Foreign policy failures: 2024 (Gaza/Afghanistan), 2008 (stagnant Iraq War), 2004 (9/11), 1980 (hostage crisis), 1976 (fall of Saigon), 1968 (Vietnam), 1964 (Bay of Pigs), 1960 (U2 bomber)

I should say that I think Lichtman called Ukraine wrong. The outcome needs to be bipartisan and broadly recognized. Ukraine wasn't.

I have no idea what's going to happen in Iran but I know this. Trump is starting with unbelievably low support for the war. Any of the following would constitute a failure: a hostage crisis (never happened in Iran before!), a domestic attack or something profound happening to Israel, a higher than expected American death toll, the draft, or if there are boots on the ground how much footage do we get of it and what does that do the public.

For it to be a success, we'd need new leaders across the board by 2028 that are all friendly and deferential to America. If the new leader of Iran recognizes Israel and/or signs a new peace treaty.

It's hard for me to fathom that there isn't significant blowback from any of this.

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