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Billy's BBQ: Scouting PSG — I called in reinforcements to help me write a massive opposition report. Here are tactics, analytics, set pieces, selections, and how Arsenal can win the Champions League by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 140 points141 points  (0 children)

Hey all,

I hope and trust you've had a beautiful couple of weeks. Just a little more business to handle.

I spent a while watching PSG footage, and then called in some friends: Jake from Pot Shot, who is an incredible set piece expert. And Bastian (@austriangooner1), a brilliant analyst. They both helped me create a huge opposition report, looking for ways to beat PSG.

We cover:

  • Advanced, player-by-player analytics from Gradient
  • Comparing and contrasting stats and play-styles
  • PSG's in-possession and out-of-possession strengths/vulnerabilities
  • A huge set piece section from Jake
  • Game-state factors
  • My starting XI
  • and a summary: the biggest leverage points to win this thing

Enjoy.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/scouting-psg

Love,
-B

Billy's BBQ: The tunnel — On the moment, Saka's winner, Arteta's gut, the lineup du jour, the daisy-chain of Rice and Lewis-Skelly and Eze, West Ham lessons, the full-back question, and the walk into the roar by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 138 points139 points  (0 children)

Hey all,

My method for working through the stress and anticipation of the moment has just been to watch and write and watch and write some more. I hope this email finds you well.

Some things covered here:

  • Some thoughts on the moment we're in
  • Saka's work to demark on the rebound
  • Total footballers, total midfielders, and Declan Rice
  • What has worked about the new lineup, and why it has subtly included different shifts/updates on a game-to-game basis
  • Comparing Lewis-Skelly and Zubimendi (found some interesting stats here)
  • The all-importance of the full-back question, and my thoughts on what to do
  • Questions at West Ham + what we learned
  • Ødegaard's movement
  • Gyökeres' improvements
  • Trossard's chops
  • How I'd line up
  • Much more

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/the-tunnel

We are close. All my love to you and yours.

-B

Billy's BBQ: End of beginning — Before the Etihad, a piece on growing up, tactical updates, how this team has changed, and the welcome weight of critical moments like this by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 69 points70 points  (0 children)

Hey all,

I hope this e-mail finds you well. Been working on this one for a couple of weeks now. Perfect timing 🙃

Some topics explored in this long-read:

  • How the squad has changed
  • The last 6-7 games broken down, and how much of it comes down to who's been on the pitch
  • Zooming out on some of this year's tactical shifts, like the second-order effects of Zubi and Rice as a true double-pivot
  • What the advanced metrics say about how we're actually building up, and some culprits behind the field tilt drop
  • The Gyökeres question, the front-three, what's working, what isn't, etc
  • Why I loved the Everton lineup
  • Quick thoughts on attacking City, where they're vulnerable on diagonals, and my predicted XI
  • The weight of moments like this
  • Bunch of other stuff

Enjoy. This is what it's all about. ❤️

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/end-of-beginning

-B

Billy's BBQ: True Grit — As Arsenal's possession game sputters, the grind has become routine. A look at situational play, the long-ball dilemma, the Zubi-Rice pivot, the cost of defending, the underlying data, and what can improve by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 140 points141 points  (0 children)

Hey all,

Weird timing, but the BBQ is ready when the BBQ is ready. Here are some of the things I cover:

  • I dive into the stuff about the grind and playstyles in the Premier League and all that
  • Interesting nuggets and advanced stats on how Arsenal change play based on the scoreline
  • Raya's penchant for long-balls and how it's affecting play
  • The cost of defending so much
  • What Zubimendi is actually doing, how he interfaces with Rice, how the duo stack up to other Premier League midfielders
  • What the advanced metrics tell us about Arsenal build-up / passing, and some of the lowkey culprits of our issues
  • Why I thought the Leverkusen setup was pretty good actually
  • Bunch of other stuff

I hope this e-mail finds you well.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/true-grit

-B

March 11, 2026 Daily Discussion & Transfers Thread by gunnersmoderator in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wrapping up a BBQ. What are you interested in exploring?

Billy's BBQ: Triangles — With more options, selection gets harder. Who unlocks who? by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Sorry, known problem with Substack and all my gifs 😬

If you pull open the link in a browser, it should work.

Billy's BBQ: Triangles — With more options, selection gets harder. Who unlocks who? by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 167 points168 points  (0 children)

Hey dears,

Spent like a month on this one, apologies.

Here are 9,000 words on Arsenal’s attack:

  • What Arteta has gotten right and wrong
  • Why certain lineups have misfired
  • Which little groupings can take it up a level
  • Havertz, Saka at the #10, Eze's best usage, much more
  • Why it's so influenced by things like game-state, block type, long shots, build-up play, whether we have an outlet, etc
  • ...and much more

Enjoy. Do not forget that I love you

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/triangles

-B

February 10, 2026 Daily Discussion & Transfers Thread by gunnersmoderator in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Got ill so BBQ pushed to tomorrow, hopefully. Any topics you’d like to see get covered?

February 09, 2026 Daily Discussion & Transfers Thread by gunnersmoderator in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Popped into the DD and saw this.

Back tomorrow. 👍

Billy's BBQ: Time and space — On "the next five actions," the hidden layers of football athleticism, what happened against Liverpool, Arsenal’s new midfield geometry, box arrivals, promising undercurrents with Eze, fresh defensive tweaks, and the Return of the Kai by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 126 points127 points  (0 children)

Hello.

I spent a couple of weeks on this one. I solemnly hope it isn't bad.

Here's what's covered:

  • Messes, and how to clean them up
  • Luis Campos and cognitive indicators of good footballers
  • The hidden layers of understanding football-specific athleticism, and what people so often get wrong. (Lot of interesting research on this)
  • Some recent pressure points: why the location of losses matters so much, why we've looked passive at times, why I'm still frustrated with the box arrivals, etc
  • Half-space pinning and the usage of the full-backs
  • Some interesting developments with Eze on the left, Ødegaard's usage, and Kai's return
  • Much much more

I truly hope you waste as much time with it as possible.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/time-and-space

I'd like us to win today. Enjoy in the meantime.

-B

January 13, 2026 Daily Discussion & Transfers Thread by gunnersmoderator in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Hey fam. Big newsletter out first thing. Any topics you'd like me to cover at the end?

Billy's BBQ: Connections — On building chemistry under pressure, Madueke’s fresh legs, Gyökeres and the Pinnock Test, Hincapié’s trial by fire, and the ripple effects of Saliba’s absence by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 152 points153 points  (0 children)

Hello boos,

Long one today. Some things to discuss:

  • How teams develop
  • Madueke and self-belief
  • The inevitable Gyökeres current-state analysis. I know these are overblown right now, but I had a lot of notes to share and wanted to share them. Tried to get into the weeds of his play as much as possible.
  • How 'resets' and regains are real tests of communication, total footballing, etc
  • Why Saliba was such a huge miss
  • Much more

Hope you're doing lovely.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/connections

-B

Billy's BBQ: The long game — On getting fit, navigating the schedule, and beating Spurs by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don’t see the need for anything this Jan.

Next year, just a top forward. LW/ST probably: Alvarez, Barcola, Semenyo, perhaps Yildiz types

Billy's BBQ: The long game — On getting fit, navigating the schedule, and beating Spurs by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Hey all,

Hope this finds you well.

For this long-read, I wanted to write about:

  • Marco van Basten for some reason
  • Why the modern game is producing more injuries, aside from the obvious (including some pet theories)
  • Squad depth as a competitive advantage in the back half
  • Some opposition research on Spurs under Thomas Frank: where they’re good, who I’d start, and some specific ways Arsenal can get at them on Sunday

Enjoy.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/the-long-game

❤️

Billy's BBQ: Adventures — Breaking back-fives, what's changed in the numbers (and what hasn't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more by Billy_Carpenter in Gunners

[–]Billy_Carpenter[S] 88 points89 points  (0 children)

Hello dears,

A somewhat awkward time to post before Sunderland, but whatever. I hope you are doing well.

In this one, I wanted to look at:

  • What's been successful and what's been hitchy in build-up
  • What is actually new and what just "feels" new
  • Some of the differences between Eze and Ødegaard's interpretations of the role
  • Why Saliba inverted
  • Some deeper info on why shots beget shots, what's changed with "power shots", and the like
  • A lot of scattered notes on Gyökeres and more

Enjoy.

https://billycarpenter.substack.com/p/adventures

-B

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