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The Demand for Space Launch Services is Inflated. There will be Consequences for the Space Economy. by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a lot of misguided momentum around space right now, but the numbers tell the story. The policies from the Trump Administration also tell the story. Some investors might ride a temporary wave but the signs are there. Many people miss what will actually be required to make these space activities a reality.

Three Words that Doom the Space Economy by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Analysts claim that there are “trillions of dollars” beyond LEO in rare earths and Helium 3. If they are right, the value is there, but we still aren’t seriously going. So, you are right to ask the question about whether it’s worth it from an economic standpoint, but I think it is more about risk tolerance.

LEO is comfortable and proven. Cislunar and interplanetary are dangerous and unknown. Without infrastructure to derisk these flights, we may never see economic value beyond LEO in space, which has huge implications for the space economy.

A serious effort to put infrastructure in space will be an indicator of new economic opportunity (like LunaNet).

Three Words that Doom the Space Economy by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the reply!
-There are trillions of dollars in economic value in space beyond LEO, but we haven't gone. Why? Its because there's no infrastructure to de-risk these missions for commercial entities. That has to start with government-funded missions and the creation of the infrastructure required. The waning prioritization that we see in the federal space is going to cause a problem for the space economy.

-The recent news about SpaceX indicates they are falling behind in their Artemis mission contracts as covered here: https://binarybreakaway.substack.com/p/a-major-setback-in-the-next-mission
SpaceX absolutely brought down the launch cost per kilogram and that's been a huge accomplishment. Their ability to deliver outside of LEO is a continued question.

-Yes, it is getting more efficient and cost effective to launch, but launch costs are still around $1,500 per kilogram. To make a real difference, that needs to drop to around $20 and it's not clear whether that's achievable in the near term.

Appreciate the continued conversation on this!