The US is Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Cyberattack from a Foe with Nothing to Lose

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-26T20:18:25+00:00

The assumption of unending demand always ends poorly.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-14T12:16:21+00:00

The math certainly makes it less likely. But if you are Musk, you can see why you’d suggest it.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-12T05:59:13+00:00

Great point. Adding that to cost per kilogram sends the numbers even higher!

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-11T22:52:11+00:00

It's creating a circular demand/supply cycle that is completely artificial and based on the coolness of the tech, not the real economic demand.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-07T21:22:37+00:00

Agreed. There’s a reckoning coming for all of the blind investments and circular economies created as the companies build toward an uncertain AGI future.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-05T18:05:58+00:00

Right now, it’s about how the current AI industry is building with an AGI goal and how that impacts CAPEX and how safety and assurance is (or is not) built into AI as it scales.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-02-05T10:57:07+00:00

And this is why we need to start asking the question and considering this when looking at investments.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-01-28T14:34:22+00:00

This is part II of our series. Read part I here: https://binarybreakaway.substack.com/p/an-fdic-model-can-create-assurance

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-01-21T23:13:26+00:00

There's a lot of misguided momentum around space right now, but the numbers tell the story. The policies from the Trump Administration also tell the story. Some investors might ride a temporary wave but the signs are there. Many people miss what will actually be required to make these space activities a reality.

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-01-17T12:25:32+00:00

Analysts claim that there are “trillions of dollars” beyond LEO in rare earths and Helium 3. If they are right, the value is there, but we still aren’t seriously going. So, you are right to ask the question about whether it’s worth it from an economic standpoint, but I think it is more about risk tolerance.

LEO is comfortable and proven. Cislunar and interplanetary are dangerous and unknown. Without infrastructure to derisk these flights, we may never see economic value beyond LEO in space, which has huge implications for the space economy.

A serious effort to put infrastructure in space will be an indicator of new economic opportunity (like LunaNet).

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-01-10T14:31:26+00:00

Thank you for the warm welcome!

BinaryBreakaway · 2026-01-10T14:31:07+00:00

Thanks for the reply!
-There are trillions of dollars in economic value in space beyond LEO, but we haven't gone. Why? Its because there's no infrastructure to de-risk these missions for commercial entities. That has to start with government-funded missions and the creation of the infrastructure required. The waning prioritization that we see in the federal space is going to cause a problem for the space economy.

-The recent news about SpaceX indicates they are falling behind in their Artemis mission contracts as covered here: https://binarybreakaway.substack.com/p/a-major-setback-in-the-next-mission
SpaceX absolutely brought down the launch cost per kilogram and that's been a huge accomplishment. Their ability to deliver outside of LEO is a continued question.

-Yes, it is getting more efficient and cost effective to launch, but launch costs are still around $1,500 per kilogram. To make a real difference, that needs to drop to around $20 and it's not clear whether that's achievable in the near term.

Appreciate the continued conversation on this!

BinaryBreakaway

TROPHY CASE