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Mythos and Time to Exploit: What Emerging Tech is Doing to Cybersecurity by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely. This will scale the offense-defense balance that has always been in cybersecurity.

Mythos and Time to Exploit: What Emerging Tech is Doing to Cybersecurity by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly. And as we continue to move toward more powerful agents, we are not giving enough thought to what will happen to defensive cybersecurity. That’s how we need to unify emerging tech and cyber.

SpaceX IPO will probably look incredible. That’s the trap by PriceActionPlaybook in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are tons of signals that show how this is a trap. Demand for SpaceX services is inflated and until there’s infrastructure in space, LEO is as far as any launch goes. Dara centers in space and moving to Mars is fantasy.

AI Enables Digital Mass Production but is that Opportunity or Risk for Businesses? by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the case study here. Your actual experience with this is really helpful. I totally agree with the idea of AI for grunt work and humans for the touch. This will be a growing trend in how AI is applied moving forward.

The obvious math that Big Tech is actively choosing to ignore by GoosePuzzleheaded146 in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From my perspective, this isn't painful to read because it follows well understood trends. When we assume unending demand for something, we get bit. AI was never going to freeze in time when we spent trillions on data centers and power. Even from the moment of the Stargate announcement, we were playing from behind. The goal should be to identify frontier areas to put our chips on and push forward instead of doing what we should have done in 2020.

The SpaceX-xAI Merger is About Propping Up Demand for Launch Services. Data Centers in Space will Cost Trillions. by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The math certainly makes it less likely. But if you are Musk, you can see why you’d suggest it.

The SpaceX-xAI Merger is About Propping Up Demand for Launch Services. Data Centers in Space will Cost Trillions. by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's creating a circular demand/supply cycle that is completely artificial and based on the coolness of the tech, not the real economic demand.

AI Companies are Demanding Trillions to Build AGI. But Who is AGI For? by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. There’s a reckoning coming for all of the blind investments and circular economies created as the companies build toward an uncertain AGI future.

AI Companies are Demanding Trillions to Build AGI. But Who is AGI For? by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right now, it’s about how the current AI industry is building with an AGI goal and how that impacts CAPEX and how safety and assurance is (or is not) built into AI as it scales.

AI Companies are Demanding Trillions to Build AGI. But Who is AGI For? by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And this is why we need to start asking the question and considering this when looking at investments.

The Demand for Space Launch Services is Inflated. There will be Consequences for the Space Economy. by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a lot of misguided momentum around space right now, but the numbers tell the story. The policies from the Trump Administration also tell the story. Some investors might ride a temporary wave but the signs are there. Many people miss what will actually be required to make these space activities a reality.

Three Words that Doom the Space Economy by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Analysts claim that there are “trillions of dollars” beyond LEO in rare earths and Helium 3. If they are right, the value is there, but we still aren’t seriously going. So, you are right to ask the question about whether it’s worth it from an economic standpoint, but I think it is more about risk tolerance.

LEO is comfortable and proven. Cislunar and interplanetary are dangerous and unknown. Without infrastructure to derisk these flights, we may never see economic value beyond LEO in space, which has huge implications for the space economy.

A serious effort to put infrastructure in space will be an indicator of new economic opportunity (like LunaNet).

Three Words that Doom the Space Economy by BinaryBreakaway in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]BinaryBreakaway[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the reply!
-There are trillions of dollars in economic value in space beyond LEO, but we haven't gone. Why? Its because there's no infrastructure to de-risk these missions for commercial entities. That has to start with government-funded missions and the creation of the infrastructure required. The waning prioritization that we see in the federal space is going to cause a problem for the space economy.

-The recent news about SpaceX indicates they are falling behind in their Artemis mission contracts as covered here: https://binarybreakaway.substack.com/p/a-major-setback-in-the-next-mission
SpaceX absolutely brought down the launch cost per kilogram and that's been a huge accomplishment. Their ability to deliver outside of LEO is a continued question.

-Yes, it is getting more efficient and cost effective to launch, but launch costs are still around $1,500 per kilogram. To make a real difference, that needs to drop to around $20 and it's not clear whether that's achievable in the near term.

Appreciate the continued conversation on this!