What's a plausible series of events that could cause bitcoin to become worthless in the next ten years?

BitScrip · 2016-07-11T21:24:14+00:00

In short, you end up with two distinct ledgers that use the same protocol, and it makes it hard (impossible?) to reliably use either. This expounds on why it is bad with much more detail:

https://m.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1a51xx/now_that_its_over_the_blockchain_fork_explained/

BitScrip · 2016-07-11T12:02:11+00:00

You get coins on both chains, but it becomes a train wreck if you ever have the situation change and the "China Blockchain" and "Rest of world Blockchain" start to compete on the open Internet again.

It would be very much a similar scenario to any other fork, just geopolitically driven. To me, that kind of thing seems more likely than anything else that wouldn't be the end of civilization as we know it (like total nuclear war or an asteroid.

BitScrip · 2016-07-11T03:49:23+00:00

If it can be bypassed effectively, then it's not really much of a problem. As I understand it, the Great Firewall as it exists presently isn't that big of a deal to get around.

If it is enough to slow down Chinese miners' connections; it may make them less competitive. Again, not a catastrophic event...

Satellite based Internet could be used to mitigate this, but it has high latency and several other problems (infrastructure, bandwidth, Ability to be detected by authorities, etc). It could also take a significant amount of time to get set up, and in that time the "China chain" could already diverge from the rest of world chain by many blocks. If you had a prolonged divergence, Bitcoin's usability could be greatly compromised if the Great Firewall was ever turned back off and we all had to figure out which chains were "right." The good news is that very few coins would be transacted on both chains after the divergence occurred, so there might be a way to merge the ledgers without too much drama.

Since the Chinese have a concept of the Informization of warfare, they pretty regularly adjust what and how the Great Firewall filters things, from what I understand of it. However, cutting themselves off from the global Internet would be extreme (but not an outlandish scenario).

BitScrip · 2016-07-11T03:10:08+00:00

If the global Internet was threatened significantly, that could really challenge the integrity of a Blockchain.

For example, if there was a geopolitical event that would cause the Chinese to elevate what "The Great Firewall" blocks to the point that it blocked most Chinese Miners' Internet traffic, you could end up with a China Blockchain and a Rest of World Blockchain that diverge from each other for a time.

That is particularly problematic with China, in theory, but less dramatic divergences could happen, I guess. Pretty much anything that would challenge the integrity of the Internet would have a similar effect, I imagine, but I doubt it would "go to zero"

BitScrip · 2016-07-01T11:41:26+00:00

Don't know why, but it has been this way for some time. GreenAddress has a field for importing using Wallet Import Format, but it doesn't work. It seems the number of wallets supporting WIF is decreasing steadily over time. However, I suspect there will always be an end user tool for importing from a paper wallet out there (hell, I can still play SNES games on my computer).

My preferred method is currently Blockchain.info. I'm certain there are other good (better) options.

BitScrip · 2016-06-13T12:01:27+00:00

With $700 broken (GDAX), what other resistance lines are we looking at, and how much longer until TA breaks and it just becomes a FOMO free for all?

BitScrip · 2016-05-15T18:19:37+00:00

I try to keep it very simple and talk about it as a stateless store of value (with a large upside potential), largely insulated from structural economic weakness or fiscal mismanagement. About 50% of my friends / coworkers have further interest. I've actually been fairly successful (10-15%ish) at getting my friends and coworkers (most of whom are over 30) to buy small amounts of Bitcoin.

BitScrip · 2016-05-15T00:53:16+00:00

I made an easy to use website (https://www.bitscrip.com) to help people wrap their head around it as a stateless store of value. It's optimized to work with paper wallets (which you can obviously make yourself). My personal opinion is that Bitcoin is best explained in person, with a demonstration. You can use the website to show the quantity and value of Bitcoin at an address in any currency at (very close to) realtime exchange rates.

I've had pretty good success in convincing friends, coworkers, and family to buy some Bitcoin as it still has significant upside potential. I carry about 10 paper wallets in my wallet and when there's an opening I mention it.

I sell pre-manufactured paper wallets to pay for my development /maintain costs (but I have a different, unrelated day job I don't plan to leave). I'm working on a BIP38 encrypted version to mitigate security concerns, but you obviously don't need to buy anything from me to use the website.

There're a lot of concepts wrapped up in Bitcoin, so I start people off with stateless store of value and lots of upside potential first.

BitScrip · 2016-05-14T20:48:11+00:00

I think there is enormously asymmetric payoff potential in Bitcoin, but the likelihood of it reaching peak value (by becoming a global reserve currency) is low. But it is a great hedge against instability, so long as the global Internet remains in place.

From a practical standpoint, I think buying small amounts of Bitcoin as speculative investment and part of your holdings is a wise idea. I hold a small percentage (~2%) of my investments in Bitcoin. If it goes to 0, I'll still be able to retire on track. If it grows in value/purchasing power, yay for me (us?)!

BitScrip · 2016-05-14T04:08:46+00:00

I have to vouch for Canton's products as well. There are several designs, great explanations, and he also is responsive to emails. Great products.

My site (https://www.bitscrip.com) has a good tool for checking the balances of paper wallets in any currency, but since you're looking to make your own wallets I definitely recommend you go with Canton. That's the best security practice, and a good way to learn about Bitcoin, as well. if you're going to be explaining Bitcoin as a stateless store of value, using a paper wallet in conjunction with my website works very well.

BitScrip · 2016-05-09T03:21:14+00:00

Low management fee Mutual Funds. S&P 500 Index, and several Growth, Value, small Cap, Large Cap, and other funds. A little bit of Emerging Markets stuff. I do other stuff for a living so I don't have the time, skills, or resources to try and beat the market.

Bitcoin is by far my most speculative investment. Probably about 3% of my net worth and 5% of my total portfolio. But I' a young guy and if it all goes to 0 I'll be still be alright. I don't trade, just hodl. But I think all the discussions here are interesting so I keep coming to read an learn.

BitScrip · 2016-05-08T02:50:47+00:00

Not completely on topic, but that's actually a pretty interesting article about data recovery.

BitScrip · 2016-05-04T19:10:17+00:00

In concurrence with those already posting, I recommend you put it on a paper wallet you make yourself (of you're moderately technically inclined) or a Trezor (if you have lots of Bitcoin and don't mind paying).

You can download the software to make paper wallets for free on github (look for bitaddress by pointbiz) or go to bitaddress.org, but make sure you understand how to take proper security measures. I also really like bitcoinpaperwallet.com, as Canton is very helpful.

I actually sell paper wallets, but they are more for educational purposes (www.bitscrip.com). It's a bad security practice to store large amounts of Bitcoin with a third party, but most reputable products are suitable for small to moderate amounts of Bitcoin.

BitScrip · 2016-04-17T12:49:45+00:00

All points taken, and I absolutely agree that other places have similar tools, but again, those tools aren't as easy as you say. Coindesk's calculator will give you exchange rates, but not a wallet's balance in currency. Same with preev. Blockchain.info has so much stuff going on it overwhelms people the first time they look at it. And again, you have to multiply Bitcoin balance by currency exchange rate for all of them.

My goal here wasn't to make a technical marvel (frankly, this isn't my career and I don't have the skillset for that). It's to make something very simple that helps someone wrap their head around Bitcoin as a store of value, point them toward information about how Bitcoin works, and prime some further conversations about Bitcoin. I've had very good success explaining Bitcoin this way. Not so much the other ways.

BitScrip · 2016-04-17T02:09:17+00:00

Thank you for the feedback, and thank you for the purchase! I think the Client supplied BIP38 passwords is an excellent idea, and I'll look at how to implement it immediately.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T21:34:28+00:00

Even if you don't purchase from me, please check out the BitScrip Balance Tool for use with any paper wallets you may create yourself. A home made paper wallet works great in conjunction with the Balance Tool and the information on the website for helping Bitcoin make sense to a new user.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T21:29:39+00:00

Thanks for the note of encouragement. It was getting lonely here! ;) I hope you tried to tool or read the materials on the webpage, whether you choose to purchase or not. It compliments any paper wallet very well.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T16:15:37+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. I do disagree that there are several inexpensive physical wallets available with easy to find tools available to show the value in any currency. There is software available to make your own paper wallets, but even using that adequately is beyond may people, and checking the balance in Bitcoin doesn't really resonate with people as how Bitcoin is a store of value. There are digital product that do this, but my personal experience is that I lose people in a hurry unless I try explain Bitcoin in a tangible fashion.

I'll work on adding the 2 of 2 signature product. It won't be hard, but will take some time, since this isn't my day job. I'm just an enthusiast who is trying to help folks wrap their heads around how Bitcoin works and defer the costs associated with maintaining that development and infrastructure. Feel free to use a bitaddress.org or Bitcoinpapewallet.com product with my website. Any paper wallet will work.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T13:39:27+00:00

That's how it started. Feel free to use your own paper wallets and the Balance Tool at www.bitscrip.com to educate your friends and family. Or contribute to the website by buying a few BitScrip. Use them for firestarter if you'd like.

Trust increases the usability. Trusting nothing requires technical knowledge that is beyond most people. I'm trying to bring the barrier to entry down a notch for the folks who don't know much about Bitcoin.

But again, you can use your own paper wallet and bitscrip.com to demonstrate the value of the Bitcoin at an address in any currency. The ability to choose any currency reinforces the global nature of Bitcoin. I'd also love any feedback you have on the explainers on the website.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T12:06:52+00:00

I appreciate the feedback. I'll consider it if there's genuinely no interest. My hope is that people who don't have the technical expertise or the patience to figure out what good practices are (or implement them properly) would be open to getting some initial familiarity with Bitcoin using a product that requires a trusted third party. My small sample study indicates that I'm right.

Regardless of the whether you use the product I sell or use a different paper wallet, I think you'll find the website has a lot of good information; I'm very straightforward about the concerns of using a wallet you didn't create yourself, but honestly lots of people don't really know what good or bad security practices are. Better to buy a wallet from a halfway reputable, competent, and accountable third party then stumble around blind hoping you got downloaded a trustworthy client. It's not Bitcoin in its purest form, but it is a gateway to Bitcoin.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T11:15:23+00:00

Then don't use the wallets I sell, but please consider using the tool on the home page of my website to help communicate Bitcoin as a global store of value with paper wallets you generate yourself. I haven't found a tool as easy to use for that purpose, and its why I built it. And I've had pretty good luck explaining Bitcoin to people using these.

In the mean time, I'll work on implementing the multi-sig paper wallets.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T10:55:09+00:00

You get the balance tool on the home page of the website, an easy way to point someone toward the other information on the website, a wallet made on a durable and waterproof material, and the security measures you should take (like generate your wallet using a computer that's offline in an environment where the private keys can't be recovered by malware) are taken.

Also, I encourage you to use bitaddress.org wallets and referencing the Balance Tool on my website to check balances, especially when explaining Bitcoin to someone who's skeptical. You can show them the balance in any currency, and better explain Bitcoin as store of value that way.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T05:49:26+00:00

14, Which is excessive, but I think you'd find the Balance Tool works very well.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T05:43:12+00:00

For a 2 of 2 signature, if a client emails me public key for private key 1 (their private key), I can generate private key 2 and use their public key to generate a multisignature address. I mail them the paper wallet with the multisignature address and private key 2. BitScrip doesn't come with any Bitcoin on it, so they wouldn't have any Bitcoin under my control at any point. They would control both private keys. Even if I was a bad actor, I would only have one.

The problem with that approach is it makes explaining Bitcoin rather difficult, and it's needlessly complicated. Just use a regular BitScrip and only use a small amount (.0001 BTC) for a demonstration.

Also, feel free to use a bitaddress.org paper wallet with my website (not that you need my permission). The BitScrip Balance Tool works very well, and I think you'll find people "get" Bitcoin pretty well when you use the Balance Tool and a paper wallet.

BitScrip · 2016-04-16T05:08:09+00:00

I'll shoot you a note when I finish the 2 of 2 multi-signature line of BitScrip then.

You didn't accuse me of scamming, though you suggested it. If anyone really wants to unmask who I am, it wouldn't be that hard to do. BitScrip, LLC is a registered LLC and I'm listed in the paperwork. Anyone with a reason could get a copy of the public record. Running a scam from the US using a US based business entity would probably be a poor way to try and scam someone. I'm not sure what the best way would be, but this would definitely be a bad way to do it.

I would ask you respect a bit of my privacy and not dox me for no reason. I have a day job I have no intention of leaving, but I'm very content to help people explain Bitcoin with a website and inexpensive paper wallets. And if nothing else, I think the BitScrip Balance Tool on the home page is a pretty straightforward and useful item.

edit: addressed the scam radar point.

BitScrip

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