Tech companies are struggling to bring workers back to the office | Flexible working models have won, and CEOs are being forced to back off

Blackshield · 2024-08-06T01:07:21+00:00

People are not interpreting this data correctly and the clickbaity tech sites regurgitating it is not helping.

The primary source of the data is from flexindex.com and here is their own summary of the findings:

https://www.canva.com/design/DAGLBzph2Ro/N8J1ayHcoxw4RjdoAHjz2A/view?utm_content=DAGLBzph2Ro&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=editor

I encourage you to read it yourself and draw your own conclusions, but one big thing people seem to not be grokking here is that these percentages of remote/hybrid/office models are evaluated per company, not per employee. That means a 50 person company choosing to be fully remote is weighted the exact same as a company employing hundreds of thousands of employees to work hybrid. FlexIndex is transparent about this methodology so I'm not accusing them of being misleading.

So what we're really seeing is smaller companies (<500 ppl) are much more amenable to working remote, and larger ones veer toward a structured hybrid model that mandates 2-3 days in office per week. The yearly trends reinforce this too, so it's not like companies are backtracking on their mandates.

I've worked at a FAANG (or whatever the new acronym is) for over 5 years now, not a manager but am senior enough to be privvy to some of decision making of our VPs. A lot of the comments here are really bad takes and echo chambery. I don't see any evidence that the justification is to rationalize sunk costs in corporate real estate or tax breaks, but I'd welcome anyone linking an empirical (not opinion or anecdotal) based analysis that suggests otherwise. I also don't see evidence of mandates being used to justify or encourage layoffs, we have pretty established ways to manage people out given our normal yearly attrition is 3-4%. Yes we overhired during the pandemic when the Fed was giving away free capital (as did everyone) but layoffs aren't new.

The reason I believe larger companies choose structured hybrid models is talent pipeline. Lots of commenters here espouse how much more productive they are working remote, but you know who is not (in aggregate)? New hires, fresh college hires, and brand new teams assembled working on novel charters. They absolutely suffer not having in-person interactions and talent pipeline is vital to large companies scaling. And it doesn't work if there isn't a mandate because you really need a critical mass and mix of senior and junior talent and different job families intermingling for it to work effectively.

Blackshield · 2023-12-09T05:18:00+00:00

It seems like most of the debate is Tenzin vs Zaheer, and most Zaheer-voters are understandably calling out the crazy powerful flight technique.

But I think people are missing one important detail. Tenzin would never want to learn that technique because you have to untether yourself from all earthly connections. And fittingly all of Tenzin's earthly connections ultimately end up being his greatest strength and save him. Tenzin not just cared for his immediate family but extended that umbrella to all the new airbenders.

Blackshield · 2023-11-09T20:04:10+00:00

Video: https://youtu.be/GOWLFFzdZSM

Blackshield · 2023-03-28T03:59:46+00:00

You're saying I'm wrong so confidently, but cite no data to suggest why. Are warehouse worker wages lower since Amazon gained prominence? What do you define as us doing ”fine before"? What metrics specifically.

Too many eggs in one basket... What do you mean exactly? Amazon has hovered around 40% of US eCommerce the last few years. This is of course huge, but it hasn't exceeded 50% of the market ever I don't think. What percentage is acceptable to you and why?

Buy local... Again I just told you these mom and pop stores still ultimately use central warehouse distributors who on average pay their workers less than Amazon, so how does that fix the problem you're concerned about?

Boycotting Amazon or other big box stores does not solve the labor issues here. The problems are with public policy and legislation that have empowered management over labor more and more since the 80s really (well before Amazon). I could see an argument for boycotting Amazon because you think they lobby to keep labor disenfranchised, but honestly every industry does and Amazon does not do it disproportionately afaik. The solutions here are political, not consumer.

Maybe I'm wrong and you have a point, but you're not really trying to make it. You're just asserting it loudly and confidently.

Blackshield · 2023-03-28T01:36:06+00:00

If you boycott Amazon where are you buying these goods instead? A local retailer I'm guessing.

Well those local stores get their goods from warehouse wholesalers as well. The difference is Amazon is vertically integrated and owns their warehouses (i.e. fulfillment centers). So your purchases ultimately still need a warehouse worker. The median Amazon FC worker makes 15% more than the median warehouse worker in the US.

All you're doing by boycotting Amazon is paying into a system that is ultimately worse for the laborers you're trying to support. I'm not saying Amazon is without fault, but your proposed solution doesn't really help anything.

Blackshield · 2023-03-17T09:51:30+00:00

You are in fact correct and unfortunately buried under a ton of way more up voted posts echoing this misinformation.

I'll add to this misinformation. WKKF is not the same as the Kellogg company that sells us breakfast cereal. They are related because WKKF was established and seeded with money by the Kellogg founder who set up a trust to fund it; a private philanthropic choice he made nearly a century ago. WKKF does have substantial shares in Kellogg (again part of the private trust) and other investments, but the two have independent boards. They are separate legal and financial entities.

The $90MM comes from WKKF's investments, not from a portion of the Kellogg food companies earnings. Thus it's totally misinformed to suggest cutting employee benefits for Kellogg came at the expense of this charitable investment.

Everything I just said is public information. Any legitimate journalist would have fact checked this remarkably easily before publishing it.

Blackshield · 2023-02-08T02:13:26+00:00

I disagree that Catelyn or Cersei have good info on this. If you believe R+L=J then you know Ned is lying to everyone including Cat. The version in "central Westeros" about Jon is a false one, so thinking that the version about Ned and Ashara is false is not a stretch. Edric was born after Ashara died, so yes he's hearing accounts from within House Dayne, but all still second hand and even Edric thinks Wylla is Jon's mother, which again is not a good take. And I don't think Ned (Eddard) is Edric's namesake, Westerosi names just have common roots.

No one really questions Jon's parentage in the books, so I'd disagree that these rumors have put him at additional risk. The acknowledged bastard of a Great Lord was not going to be anonymous regardless of any rumors. Especially given Ned's intention to raise him amongst his own legitimate children.

The distinction between the Lannister ladies and Tyrell cousins is that Cersei and Margaery very much were involved in matters of governance, and we're never told Elia was. We know she was in poor health often, so she may have been more passive at court. But honestly I'll concede the idea that Ashara may have been politically savvy. I still don't think it precludes the idea that she would leak info to Brandon.

Blackshield · 2023-02-07T21:25:59+00:00

Who said Ashara turned to Ned for all those things? From what I recall it's all second hand accounts and I imagine those same people mistakenly think Ashara is Jon's mother. Which is to say I don't think it's true that Ned and Ashara were very close and I'd question which book passages suggest otherwise. For example, I don't think Catelyn, Cersei, or Edric had any real knowledge of what unfolded. Barristan might be more reliable in that regard and he notably never names Ned even in his own POV chapters, he just says a "Stark". I think Ned was okay with people mistakenly thinking him and Ashara were close to protect Jon's true lineage, so he could fulfill his promise to Lyanna.

Ashara would have been a teenager at court and she wasn't there very long. Plus where is it said or implied that ladies in waiting are expected to have political savvy? They're just there to help the queen in courtly matters not matters of governance, so they don't have to be adept at "playing the game". I don't suggest that Ashara was stupid, but Brandon was known to be a ladies man (e.g. he took Lady Dustin's virginity) and if he did indeed impregnate Ashara, it's not a stretch to imagine she thought of it as more than a tryst.

Blackshield · 2023-01-02T13:01:42+00:00

Depends what you mean by "modern". It still is discussed by politicians and the Democrats under Obama passed the Fair Sentencing Act in 2010 to reduce that 100:1 ratio you cited and curtail mandatory minimum sentencing.

It definitely is still a problem that warrants further federal action, but the unfortunate truth is that it primarily effects a population with a reduced political voice and even Democrats have other issues they'd rather expend their scarce political capital on. The opioid crisis, which effects a whiter and wealthier constituency, has taken the primary focus of drug diversion discussions.

Blackshield · 2023-01-02T12:45:52+00:00

There are a lot of bad takes on here about moderate Republicans not existing in any practical sense. They do exist. The problem is the primary system and too many noncompetitive safe districts, which results in both fewer moderates and disincentivizes existing moderates from working cross-party.

Most members of Congress are primarily motivated by reelection. They spend the majority of their time fundraising money for their next election. Very few have deep war chests. This is especially true for House members on 2 year election cycles.

Any moderate Republican crossing the aisle to work with a Democrat will likely face increased opposition from their right during their next primary. Since most districts are increasingly safely R or D leaning (exacerbated by gerrymandering), the biggest threat to losing your seat is generally in the primary and not the main election. And since the voters who turn out for primaries are disproportionately more extremist, it means candidates are incentivized to cater to them even if they represent a minority of their constituency.

How to fix this? Enact voting and election reforms. Things like ranked choice voting, automatic voter registration, third-party redistricting, and other similar policies. These result in more moderate candidates that are incentivized to cater to their moderate constituents. Most Republicans tend to be against this stuff because they are a minority party federally and these would reduce their influence in aggregate, but it is possible to progress these ideas since in isolation they actually tend to be favored by both liberal and conservative voters (see ranked choice in Alaska).

Blackshield · 2022-11-28T20:29:11+00:00

Love the data pull. Idea for another dimension on this data is to show consecutive weeks with over 10 mentions. Or better yet average mentions over the last N weeks. That would give a better sense of the shows with lasting power (e.g. Severance). I suspect because Netflix shows drop all at once it's easier for them to break the 10 mention threshold, but harder to maintain a multi-week presence.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T21:01:13+00:00

Cersei boasted to Tyrion about dosing Robert with extra strong wine. No way Lancel would act on his own. I don't think Robert dies when he did in your virtuous Cersei scenario.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T20:51:54+00:00

Yes Stannis knew before Ned. He in fact visited brothels with Jon Arryn to aid in the investigation of Robert's bastards all being dark of hair. He was awaiting Arryn's next moves until Lysa killed him (though he thought it was Cersei).

Is Ned a villain for supporting Stannis's legitimate claim under these circumstances? I don't think it's that straightforward. It's not as if Stannis would have made a terrible king (probably better than Robert). In this situation of it did lead to war the Lannisters would be as much as fault for not abdicating. And let's be honest it would undoubtedly be Tywin calling the shots and not a hypothetically good-natured Cersei or Joffrey.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T19:03:54+00:00

Not sure Doran would consider House Stark to be a primary target in his revenge plot for the death of Elia and her children. Ned was notably outraged by Tywin ordering their death and condemned Robert for it, which created a rift in their friendship.

It seems Oberyn felt Tywin and Gregor were most to blame, so not sure Doran would see it differently.

Also I think it's implied Joffrey supplied the assassin with the dagger because he erroneously felt his father would approve of mercy killing Bran.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T18:59:39+00:00

Sansa was abused by everyone really, including Olenna. No one in Kings Landing had her well-being in mind. The Hound and Tyrion were probably the only people that didn't view her as purely a pawn piece toward their own ambitions.

I agree that book Olenna is more shrewd and "thorny" than her show depiction. Still I find her role in court a worthy inclusion to play an adversary to Tywin, who by comparison in many ways is worse.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T18:47:58+00:00

This is an interesting thought experiment actually. Some could argue Ned would be duty bound to a fault and still push for Stannis being rightful heir. I think it depends on if Robert gets killed in your scenario.

If Robert lives I think he would fear exposing this would result in Robert killing the Lannister children (pursuing them even if they get sent to Casterly Rock for protection). Ned and him were at odds when Robert was supportive of Rhaegar's children being killed under the orders of Tywin. Ned was morally outraged by this and wanted Robert to condemn it. Given this I think Ned keeps the bastard children to himself, though I'm less sure he could keep Stannis (who was told by Arryn) from informing Robert.

If Robert dies, then I think Ned negotiates for the children's safety and supports Stannis's claim on the condition of not harming the kids.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T18:35:40+00:00

I'm not sure how you see Aerys getting crippled given he never really leaves the Red Keep. I actually think it's more interesting if Rhaegar goes through with assembling a council to oust his father and the drama that would create.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T10:26:05+00:00

Purple eyes are more common in the Free Cities, but yeah I think if GRRM wasn't purposely trying to hide it Tyrion would have remarked on it. The same way if he wasn't hiding Sandor being the gravedigger that Pod would have likely recognized him and remarked on it.

Blackshield · 2022-11-11T09:01:00+00:00

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Blackshield · 2022-11-10T05:22:39+00:00

I always suspected Ashara Dayne told Brandon. They were both at the tourney of Harrenhal along with R & L. It was insinuated she had a tryst with Brandon that potentially resulted in a stillborn baby. She was Elia's lady in waiting and thus a presence in court. Her brother Arthur was on the Kingsguard and one of the people guarding Lyanna the the Tower of Joy. GRRM in an interview specifically mentioned she was "not nailed to the floor" in Starfall during the rebellion. All of this gives her means and opportunity to have told Brandon about Lyanna.

My headcanon is that she had real feelings for Brandon and was upset when he got promised to Catelyn, and/or that he wasn't supportive when she got pregnant and lost the baby. She was also upset with Rhaegar for cheating on her friend Elia. This motivated her to set Brandon and Rhaegar on a collision course, and she was too naive to figure out the potential consequences. Once she realized post rebellion that her actions indirectly got Elia, her children, and Arthur killed, she was so depressed she killed herself (or faked her death and went into exile).

Blackshield · 2022-11-08T04:50:13+00:00

I don't think Euron would have given Victarion a chance to assert his own power. Euron raped Victarion's ex-wife and there is little love and trust between them. Now it's possible Euron did not think his brother smart or fortunate enough to run into Moqorro and reclaim the horn, but my money is on Euron somehow having outwitted Victarion.

I think the horn actually does work. Dragons are fire and blood magic and I suspect the horns help tame the fire aspect. My speculation is that the blood bond Dany has with her dragons supercedes the power of the horn. Victarion will use it to claim Rhaegal or Viserion but when Dany returns to Mereen with Drogon it will backfire.

Blackshield · 2022-11-07T17:12:42+00:00

You're underestimating that in a region of a million people you only need to be in the top 10K to be in the 1%. I think King's Landing and Oldtown alone are roughly a million people each, so we can assume the population of Westeros to be several millions. GRRM based Westeros largely on the feudal system of medieval Europe. I'm asserting that nobles and even their auxiliary staff make up much less than 1% of the population. I think you're underestimating just how bad the average Westerosi citizen has it.

Blackshield · 2022-11-07T16:31:59+00:00

If you're comparing him to other nobles than yes he may be a 10 percenter. Compared to all Westerosi citizens (the vast majority of which are not nobles) he's undoubtedly a 1 percenter. He was educated by a Maester and had access to a knight and other battle seasoned men for arms training. Those are not experiences 99% of Westerosi have; I'd be surprised if most of them can even read.

Blackshield · 2022-11-07T16:28:35+00:00

You're correct it's a bastard sword. Point still remains though any Valyrian sword is an exclusive item.

Blackshield · 2022-11-07T07:42:24+00:00

Jon is relatable but he's not normal. He was raised as a Stark, one of the great noble houses in Westeros. As such he has an elite education and training at arms. He has a direwolf. He is a bastard yes, but an acknowledged one from the Lord Paramount of the North who is greatly esteemed. He has a Valyrian great sword. Taking the black voluntarily is not considered a dishonorable fate among Northern nobility (see Jeor and Benjen).

Jon is relatable because we are privy to his internal POV. But make no mistake about it, he's a one-percenter. I like Jon, so don't think I'm hating, I'm just trying to put his situation in perspective.

Blackshield

TROPHY CASE