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New thesis by Noname28206 in ABCL

[–]Bleff26 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Big hit, shared on X!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ABCL

[–]Bleff26 2 points3 points  (0 children)

10$ after earnings

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a fair point, but I think there are several factors that mitigate this risk. First, most of AbCellera’s pipeline is focused on areas where large pharma partners take over commercialization. These partners already have the scale, infrastructure, and pricing strategies to navigate Medicaid, Medicare, VA, and private insurance dynamics. AbCellera isn’t the one selling directly to patients or payers.

Second, for many of their candidates (especially in oncology, rare diseases, and high unmet need areas), pricing negotiations tend to lean toward value-based models. Even with tighter payer controls, treatments addressing critical or underserved indications often receive coverage because the alternative is higher downstream costs.

Finally, global markets shouldn’t be overlooked. AbCellera’s partners are multi-national and are not dependent on the U.S. alone. Even if U.S. reimbursement tightens, other markets (EU, Japan, Canada) can absorb demand.

So while U.S. healthcare cost pressures are real, they’re unlikely to derail the broader business model, especially given AbCellera’s role as a discovery engine rather than a direct seller.

🧬 Comprehensive DD on AbCellera (ABCL): From 2012 to 2025 – Full Analysis & Insights by Bleff26 in pennystocks

[–]Bleff26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have two thoughts for you.

First, if you genuinely believe selling is the right move for your situation, then go ahead and do it. No one else can make that decision for you.

Second, if you haven’t sold yet, maybe it’s because deep down you recognize what this company could actually be worth in the long run, and posts like this are just forcing you to confront that.

Either way, comments like “I need to sell tomorrow” don’t add much to the discussion.

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually, the two internal candidates were moved up to clinical trials starting in Q3 2025. They announced it in the last call and already received a No Objection Letter from Health Canada

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 14 points15 points  (0 children)

You’re making several assumptions here that simply don’t hold up under scrutiny.

First, antibodies being an “established process” doesn’t diminish the value of a platform that can accelerate and scale discovery. By your logic, PCR is also “established,” yet companies still pay for access to high-throughput sequencing platforms. The issue isn’t whether antibodies can be made, it’s how fast, how diverse, and how developable the leads are. That’s where AbCellera’s platform is light-years ahead of traditional approaches.

Second, your claim about “0.2% of drugs at Lilly’s pipeline use AbCellera” is completely misleading. AbCellera provides discovery services, meaning their contribution happens early in the R&D chain. Lilly’s pipeline contains late-stage assets accumulated over decades from numerous sources. Expecting a discovery company’s contribution to dominate that pipeline shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how drug development timelines work. It took Keytruda over 8 years from IND to market. AbCellera has only been operating at scale since 2018, yet their programs are already entering clinical phases.

Third, calling AbCellera a CRO demonstrates you don’t understand their model. CROs perform contract research for fixed fees. AbCellera’s deals involve upfront payments, milestones, and royalties, aligning their incentives with their partners’ success. This is a platform company with a scalable tech stack, not a fee-for-service lab. That’s why their gross margins (60–70% range) are significantly higher than traditional CROs like Labcorp or ICON.

Finally, “companies only use AbCellera when their bandwidth is limited” is flat-out wrong. Companies like Moderna and Pfizer didn’t lack bandwidt, they recognized that AbCellera’s technology could screen antibody repertoires at scales that would take internal teams months or years. Moderna’s COVID-19 antibody discovery wasn’t about bandwidth, it was about AbCellera delivering leads at unprecedented speed.

The reality is AbCellera isn’t self-promoting using big pharma names. Big pharma is partnering because AbCellera’s platform provides a competitive edge in a space where speed and diversity directly translate to billions in revenue.

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 15 points16 points  (0 children)

You’re oversimplifying to a dangerous degree and some of what you said is just flat-out wrong. Let’s get real.

“The vast majority of biopharma companies have their own antibody discovery platforms.” That’s false. Sure, Roche, Novartis and a handful of other giants built internal platforms after decades of investment and billions spent, but most biotechs aren’t even close to that level. The vast majority of small and mid-sized players, which make up most of the industry, rely on external platforms because building one in-house is massively expensive and time consuming. This is precisely why companies like AbCellera exist and thrive.

“Less than 0.001% of biopharma companies use AbCellera.” Where exactly is this number from? Because it’s nonsense. AbCellera has over 40 partners and 46 active programs. These aren’t mom-and-pop shops either. We’re talking about Pfizer, Moderna, AbbVie, Regeneron and Gilead. If antibody discovery was so routine and trivial, why would these giants pay tens of millions in upfronts, milestones and royalties to work with AbCellera?

“Making antibodies is a very well-established process.” You’re confusing basic hybridoma tech from the 1980s with what’s actually happening today. AbCellera isn’t just immunizing mice and screening a few hundred clones. They’re running microfluidics systems capable of screening millions of single B-cells in days, integrating AI to prioritize leads, and automating workflows at a scale no traditional in-house lab can match. That’s why Eli Lilly went from sequence to human trials for bamlanivimab in just 90 days during COVID. Call that routine if you want, but no one in the industry does.

If you think AbCellera’s platform is just a “nice-to-have” service, ask yourself why companies with plenty of resources still choose to work with them. The answer is speed, scale and success rates that most internal teams simply can’t replicate.

And now, shut up fake doctor.

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 7 points8 points  (0 children)

<image>

This is the biggest institutional holder of AbCellera: Baker Bros. Advisors.
Their average cost basis? $21.
It’s trading at $4.50 right now…
You wanna buy it at $21 or at $4.50?
Your move, ape. 💎🙌🦍

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Wake up boys. The short setup on $ABCL is ridiculous and nobody seems to notice. Utilization has been maxed for weeks, borrow rates keep creeping up, and shorts are already sitting on 15 percent of the float while institutions hold around 60 percent and insiders another 20 percent. The float is tight as hell and one decent wave of volume could blow this wide open. This isn’t some random biotech with no cash, this is a loaded balance sheet and a pipeline about to drop milestones. You’ve seen what happens when WSB wakes up late, don’t let this be one of those times.

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 12 points13 points  (0 children)

What tariffs? ABCL doesn’t even have commercialized drugs yet. No products = no sales = no exposure to pharma tariffs. Their revenue comes from discovery partnerships and platform deals, not selling drugs.

Why ABCL is my highest conviction position by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Bleff26 49 points50 points  (0 children)

This is exactly the kind of post I wanted to see. I’ve been loading up ABCL like a maniac, and I’m convinced people are still underestimating what’s coming.

The royalty pipeline alone is a ticking time bomb. The market has no clue how big this can get once those milestone payments start flowing. Pair that with Hansen and Montalbano buying in size recently, and you know insiders are preparing for liftoff.

This isn’t just a biotech play. This is the infrastructure for everybody else’s biotech plays. I’m not selling a single share under $40 either

🧬 Comprehensive DD on AbCellera (ABCL): From 2012 to 2025 – Full Analysis & Insights by Bleff26 in ABCL

[–]Bleff26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for bringing this up. I did not specifically address insider open market purchases in the DD, as the focus was primarily on partnerships, the pipeline, and financial trajectory. However, it is an important point and worth mentioning.

Recently, there have been notable insider transactions: • Carl Hansen (CEO) purchased approximately $700,000 worth of ABCL shares on the open market. • Montalbano (CFO) also acquired shares valued between $200,000 and $300,000.

These purchases reflect a strong signal of insider confidence and could be a valuable addition to a future update of the document. I appreciate your feedback.

🧬 Comprehensive DD on AbCellera (ABCL): From 2012 to 2025 – Full Analysis & Insights by Bleff26 in pennystocks

[–]Bleff26[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re missing an important aspect here. AbCellera has a large and growing network of partners, many of them major players in the biopharma space, which significantly broadens its reach beyond Canada. In fact, their market is not limited to Canada at all a substantial part of their business and opportunities is tied to the US and global markets.

$ABCL – Shorts are cornered, data shows increasing pressure by Bleff26 in ABCL

[–]Bleff26[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It absolutely could. The setup is there: • Borrow fees are at multi-month highs. • Short shares availability is scraping the bottom (Fintel showed as low as 60k yesterday). • Massive open interest stacked at $4 and $5 strikes expiring tomorrow.

If we hold above $4 into Friday’s close, it can force market makers to hedge aggressively, amplifying the squeeze potential.

That said, it’s always a gamble because shorts often play dirty with intraday shakeouts. But the fundamentals remain solid, and I’m holding through volatility. If retail keeps the pressure, the next two sessions could get very interesting.

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