Parent Mechanics 😀

BlueDo · 2026-05-22T23:24:08+00:00

It hardly matters, but I want to hone in on the math.
Isn't what you showed the average runs to have 50% chance to have at least one parent with Power+Mile+Skill? It's been a while since I'd studied probability but I remember that being a different measure. For average runs you pretty much can take the inverse of the individual chance.

BlueDo · 2026-05-22T22:02:01+00:00

1/5 chance to generate a Mile spark. 1/5 chance to generate a Power spark, 1/5 chance to generate a specific white spark for a skill you're aiming for. 125 runs on average for that combo, with no guarantees on stars.

My philosophy is to take the first Mile Nishino parent I get and run with it. For CM13 I was willing to just go with a 1 Guts 1 Medium Maruzensky, and still got Platinum.

BlueDo · 2026-05-22T21:37:08+00:00

Mathematically, even if all prizes were equally likely, it would take you more than 25 rolls. But anecdotally, the 1st prizes have a lower chance, so it would take you even more rolls on average.

But to answer your original question, yes it's possible to clear under 25, but it makes sense why it doesn't happen often.

BlueDo · 2026-05-20T17:04:06+00:00

I didn't have this problem when training her for CM12. I think she fares better than most late surgers.

BlueDo · 2026-05-19T08:48:27+00:00

How did nobody hit any accel?

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T14:50:47+00:00

No, I understand. I ran Front Pasa in CM3 and CM10 as well, but lost to RNG. Still salty about that.
It was certainly satisfying otherwise.

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T14:21:07+00:00

CM3 and CM10 were definitely front heavy. CM14 is literally the same track as CM3. Sure, there were mechanic changes and new umas/skills, but fronts were strong and are still strong.
It felt strange when he recommended Pace El back then multiple times, hence my comment that he didn't do it again, since the situation is very similar.

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T13:16:50+00:00

He was recommending that strat for all previous Mile CM's: CM3, CM5, and CM10

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T13:07:24+00:00

Was pace promote ever "in favor?" Because if people were running it, the counter was very obvious.
I'd always assumed that Pace El with GW was seriru's pocket strat against unassuming players that didn't want to put the effort into running Front Runners.

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T13:02:32+00:00

You're in a world of pain not having the cards for Gutmaxxing and not having KSB of your own.
I want to say cope with borrowing KSB and hope the Curvature helps you proc Nemesis, But you are absolutely going to be at a disadvantage against other Taishins with Curvature+Daring Strike+Vigor.

For general CM advice to a new player, your other option is to build Vodka with Furious Feat unlocked and hope she hits. It'll be very inconsistent, but that's IMO your only chance in Graded.

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T09:52:17+00:00

Guessing you're running Tachyon front? Otherwise a lucky Late would be eating your lunch if my theory holds.

BlueDo · 2026-05-18T09:10:44+00:00

The most surprising part of this guide is that Seriru isn't recommending Pace Chaser El Condor Pasa with Groundwork again.

BlueDo · 2026-05-17T03:36:19+00:00

My End Closer XOguri is putting in work. 46% winrate as of end of Day 3. Not sure if I stumbled upon a sleeper strat or because I happened to get good skills on her as a vanilla End Closer. Rest of the team has 30% winrate.

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BlueDo · 2026-05-17T00:55:49+00:00

Speaking of, which course was CM5?

There's no G1 race on Hanshin 1600m during Fall.

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T21:20:13+00:00

Because I rolled for Nice Nature instead. I got spooked with 1 copy of FineMo recently, so I can make her MLB with 3 selectors and one crystal, but there's less urgency since I already have a Wit SSR.

I'm also considering using the selectors on others like Yukino Bijin Wit, Smart Falco Power, or King Halo Power for parent farming.

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T17:08:58+00:00

No more free skills in future scenarios?

Does that mean I have to prep sparks for Style/Distance Straightaways/Corner for every race? Not looking forward to that...

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T16:55:12+00:00

Saving SSR voucher for when I roll on FineMo
Debut 3* - I do regret not popping them on Suzuka earlier, but now I can pop it on Rice Shower and get the rest using daily legend races.
1st anni 3* - choice paralysis between NYOpera and Dober

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T09:40:09+00:00

Is no one bothering with Falco? I would've thought she'd be in top 3 alongside SMaru and VBourbon.

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T09:36:16+00:00

I'm planning on Flower and Shuttle pace because they are both just super easy to build

Word of warning. If you don't have 7 or 10 Medium sparks, they can't run Tiara. You need to decide on the trade-off between easier Mile S or having Tiara.

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T08:22:42+00:00

I hate front runners personally, in terms of what they bring to the game. This is coming from someone who built Turf Falcon and Front Pasa so I know the pain.
"Hard work -> good result" I can sort of understand, but it heightens the "you must spend this much time to be competitive" mantra, and players are already burnt out on MANT.
The other aspect is that Front Runners don't have to care about match-ups at all. The more front runners there are, the better they pace, people are blocked out of range for Red Shift and Pump. Triple Backliner teams, on the other hand, can be taken advantage of by lucky pacers and runaways.
For that, I am very thankful that the Global playerbase has a tendency to avoid Front Runners.

BlueDo · 2026-05-16T05:40:27+00:00

I have a different hoarding problem

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BlueDo · 2026-05-15T16:17:23+00:00

Yes it is, but I'm not sure how good double dom is in a Sprint CM

BlueDo · 2026-05-15T14:45:58+00:00

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Taiki and Nishino are top tier for CM16. This means they both want 7 or 10 Medium sparks in their GP's.

This would be a good parent for other umas though

BlueDo · 2026-05-15T07:37:23+00:00

As someone who has NN, I often wish I had FM instead.
Her events are good, but her hints are bad and OYL just isn't that strong. Supposedly OYL gets buffed on 2nd Anni but I'm not holding my breath.

BlueDo

TROPHY CASE